Northern Rock and the panicking sheeple

WolfattheDoor · Post by **WolfattheDoor** » 17 Sep 2007, 11:26

Wandering around Reading town centre on Saturday and seeing the long queues waiting to draw out money from Northern Rock, I was struck by how easy the 'great British populace' (or 'proles' for 1984 readers) panic over the slightest scare.

It happened with MMR when one dodgy report caused everyone to stop inoculating and so put their children into danger; and of course it happened during the 2000 fuel protests when bread was flying off the shelves quicker than a try being scored against the England rugby team.

Usually, there's no need to panic and there's plenty of information out there but most people, it seems, only read the tabloids or don't know the number of News24 so never bother to get the full picture.

It's something we have to be aware of in the future. Imagine the panics if the US attacks Iran or terrorists blow up an oil tanker. Not only queues outside every petrol station but every supermarket being ransacked.

I was watching Threads over the weekend and, although all-out nuclear war might be unlikely (unless Bush gets his way), the people stripping shops is still relevant (there was a great shot of somebody buying tins of lychees because they just had to buy anything!)

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Sep 2007, 12:16

I was watching Threads over the weekend and, although all-out nuclear war might be unlikely (unless Bush gets his way), the people stripping shops is still relevant (there was a great shot of somebody buying tins of lychees because they just had to buy anything!)

Seems to me that governments should be pro active and have emergency agreements with all the major retailers (whether its food or petrol etc).

In other words - if there are any signs of disruption and panic buying - demand should be rationed.

Panic buying causes of viscious circle of shortage and thus more panic buying and thus more shortage etc etc

Post by **mikepepler** » 17 Sep 2007, 12:52

Totally_Baffled wrote:Panic buying causes of viscious circle of shortage and thus more panic buying and thus more shortage etc etc

Which is why you have to get in first... which is effectively what many of us are doing by building up some stores, getting allotments going and buying land.

The only difference between "preparation" and "panic buying" is the timing...

RevdTess · Post by **RevdTess** » 17 Sep 2007, 13:18

I agree with Mike. I don't see anything irrational about people pulling their money out of Northern Rock on fears that other people pulling their money out will cause the bank to fold. It's classic game theory - prisoner's dilemma. Who wants to be the mug who was last to buy into the panic?

Or to put it another way, if this was *my* bank having problems, I'd have transferred my savings out asap, just on the expectation of how the 'sheeple' would react. Which I guess makes me the biggest sheeple of all.

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 17 Sep 2007, 13:47

Have you noticed that share price in the Alliance and Leicester is down 16% today, and a lot more in the last month? Bradford and Bingley not looking too healthy either...

Do you think we could start a few rumours on this internet thingy and see if we can panic the sheeple into another run on the bank?

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Sep 2007, 13:50

mikepepler wrote:
Totally_Baffled wrote:Panic buying causes of viscious circle of shortage and thus more panic buying and thus more shortage etc etc
Which is why you have to get in first... which is effectively what many of us are doing by building up some stores, getting allotments going and buying land.

The only difference between "preparation" and "panic buying" is the timing...

You are correct Mike - damn I feel a total hypocrite!

The allotment is all ready to go now for next spring - blimey its hard work - these veggies better be good! lol

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 17 Sep 2007, 13:50

RalphW wrote:Have you noticed that share price in the Alliance and Leicester is down 16% today, and a lot more in the last month? Bradford and Bingley not looking too healthy either...

Do you think we could start a few rumours on this internet thingy and see if we can panic the sheeple into another run on the bank?

Noooo I am with the Alliance & Leicester!!!

WolfattheDoor · Post by **WolfattheDoor** » 17 Sep 2007, 14:19

mikepepler wrote: The only difference between "preparation" and "panic buying" is the timing...

Isn't "panic buying" when you buy something when there is not really a justification for it? Northern Rock is pretty safe for the moment it seems to me so taking out your money is panic withdrawal, not sensible withdrawal.

I remember during the fuel protests people saying that there was plenty of food available but it only became short because people were buying unnecessary amounts.

Mike's "Preparation" is not going to cause shortages, is not unnecessary and not based on unsubstantiated rumours.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Sep 2007, 14:23

Mike's "Preparation" is not going to cause shortages, is not unnecessary and not based on unsubstantiated rumours.

Good point.

I feel better now

Post by **mikepepler** » 17 Sep 2007, 16:35

WolfattheDoor wrote:
mikepepler wrote: The only difference between "preparation" and "panic buying" is the timing...
Isn't "panic buying" when you buy something when there is not really a justification for it? Northern Rock is pretty safe for the moment it seems to me so taking out your money is panic withdrawal, not sensible withdrawal.

I agree. But I also think that people who live in the supposed "real" world probably think all us peak oil freaks are panic buying/gardening/whatever. What we see as sensible preparation others see no justification for.

We're debating over words though

If I had money at Northern Rock I'd have pulled it out a couple of weeks ago, when people first started speculating on whether it would run into trouble. Would that have been counted as preparation or panic?

PS_RalphW · Post by **PS_RalphW** » 17 Sep 2007, 17:00

Andy Hunt wrote:
RalphW wrote:Have you noticed that share price in the Alliance and Leicester is down 16% today, and a lot more in the last month? Bradford and Bingley not looking too healthy either...

Do you think we could start a few rumours on this internet thingy and see if we can panic the sheeple into another run on the bank?

Noooo I am with the Alliance & Leicester!!!

Now down 36%....

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Sep 2007, 18:41

Now down 36%....

Holy smeg

Andy , for god sake move your money mate!

I going to keep an eye on the Santander share price (Abbey) - if it starts plummeting I might rearrange my finances

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 17 Sep 2007, 18:43

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid= ... fer=energy

And just in case you havent had enough bad news!

Crude Oil Rises to Record $80.50 on Signs of Interest-Rate Cut

Vortex · Post by **Vortex** » 17 Sep 2007, 19:42

Seems to me that governments should be pro active and have emergency agreements with all the major retailers (whether its food or petrol etc).

The major super markets have recently been ordered to increase their petrol stocks ... but they are rather grumpy since they will have to pay for the new facilities and also the fuel which will go into them.

The Civil Defence system used to require antibiotics and a few other items to go through a 6-month "delay queue" in rural govt warehouses, so that the survivors of WW3 would have something to use.

In 1995, a decision was taken to dispose of all food stocks and buffer depots.
http://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/documents/osp14.pdf

Mean Mr Mustard · Post by **Mean Mr Mustard** » 17 Sep 2007, 20:10

[quote="Totally_Baffled"
Seems to me that governments should be pro active and have emergency agreements with all the major retailers (whether its food or petrol etc).

[/quote]

If you have had time to plough thru the long paper in this thread -

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/vie ... php?t=4901

you'll see how poorly prepared and planned some of our food and fuel supplies are.