The All Party Parliamentary Group on Peak Oil and Gas

MacG · Post by **MacG** » 28 Jun 2007, 09:17

This is a fantastic advancement and I congratulate you sincerely. Just pray that they dare to keep their eyes on the ball.

We had an initiative here some years ago where the then Prime Minister (prodded by Kjel Aleklett) assembled a couple of hundred people in public hearings about PeakOil, but it fizzled out. As soon as they got close to any kind of real consequences they got scared and started to talk about other things.

Post by **clv101** » 28 Jun 2007, 11:45

I wrote this quickly today in response to someone asking me "And what is to be done exactly?"

The immediate problem peak poses for the UK is where we are going to import approximately a million barrels per day from in a few years time to compensate for North Sea declining production. That?s a million barrels per day of brand new demand on the world oil market, which current exporter is able to increase their exports? How much will it cost considering we?ll be in competition will all the other countries trying to increase their imports from a decreasing export market.

So the challenge is where the oil going to come from ? it might simply not be available in the volumes we want and if it is available how much will it cost. It?s conceivable for imported oil and gas to double our trade deficit by 2012.

Given that what the UK has to do is reduce oil consumption ? to mitigate the damage to the economy real material shortage could cause and to limit the damage having to run a much large trade deficit will cause, what is to be done? The UK uses oil almost exclusively for transport so that?s where savings have to be made.

We need to increase the average vehicle efficiency, we need to reduce average mileage. The vehicle efficiency can be addressed with fiscal measures (such as the increased vehicle tax) and through regulation such as the EU?s proposed 120g/km CO2 limit. Reducing average mileage is harder as it?s more a social issue ? personal mileage is driven by commuting so anything that gets people working closer to home is good. As is increased cycling and public transport. Road freight can also be addressed from stepping back from just in time distribution systems. Alternatives may be slower and not achieve quite the same availability of goods on shelves but will use less oil.

It?s clear that doing nothing, maintaining oil demand will be an economic disaster by the middle of the next decade. The plan is to convince Westminster of this and the need to act to bring the oil intensity of the economy down. If the UK can act more aggressively than other countries our economy will have a relative advantage.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 28 Jun 2007, 11:49

Is there (going to be) a web page for the working group?

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 28 Jun 2007, 12:24

I will sort some things out. I will probably put things on my reference site.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 28 Jun 2007, 12:25

Great stuff - congratulations John. I bet it's nice to see your efforts bearing some fruit.

Totally_Baffled · Post by **Totally_Baffled** » 28 Jun 2007, 12:32

Just wanted to add my congratulations!

This is a seriously good acheivement for all involved - well done and good work!!!

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 28 Jun 2007, 14:50

I'll be putting some kind of website together soon, subject to approval from the APPGOPO.

Andy Hunt · Post by **Andy Hunt** » 28 Jun 2007, 14:57

Cool! This will come in very handy justifying PO initiatives for local Councils . . .

Aurora · Post by **Aurora** » 28 Jun 2007, 15:07

Well done James. Please keep us informed of any public meetings.

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 02 Aug 2007, 10:13

APPGOPO is officially registered. This document doesn't list all the members, but does list those who make the group qualify.

http://www.publications.parliament.uk/p ... emi393.htm

johnhemming · Post by **johnhemming** » 02 Aug 2007, 21:34

Anyone who has an arguable case in relation to this issue must be able to identify where their assumptions differ from others.

I do think the fact that the charts used by Sir David don't take into account the cost of energy invalidates them. However, the challenge for the APPG is not to take a position itself, but to identify what the range of predictions are and the discrepancies.

From that it is entirely reasonable to take views as to the precise date of peak, but as it has been previously pointed out you can use hydrocarbons sustainably, but not fossil fuels.