UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming

Post by **clv101** » 27 Aug 2005, 22:10

Here's a snippet of the latest article from my blog:

UK Gas and Electricity Crisis Looming
The UK could experience a shortfall in gas supplies this winter due primarily to the rapidly declining extraction rate from indigenous reserves in the North Sea and the country?s gas infrastructure which having been designed and built when gas was plentiful is based on a just in time delivery system from offshore fields.

If winter 2005/06 is not extremely warm like last year then we can expect significant shortages. If it is as cold as 2003/04 demand could be 10% higher than last year (7% due to temperature and 3% due to two years demand growth) whilst supply could be lower than last year due to depletion.
http://www.vitaltrivia.co.uk/2005/08/27

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 28 Aug 2005, 18:14

Great article Chris, very thorough.

The future of UK energy supply does not look good at all.

I guess the powers-that-be will opt for a combination of much higher bills and more coal usage rather than any REAL efficiency savings.

The nuclear lobby will be chuffed to bits since any supply disruption this winter is sure to smooth their path to the front of the queue.

For me tho, the biggest issue is that only two things can fill the cap in supply between now and 2010 and thats either a big reduction in demand or massive imports AT ANY COST; and since no one in OECD countries does proper "efficiecny" at all (or even knows what it means) then I guess someone's going to have to pay for huge imports....

After 2010 we might have a bunch of new nukes and a lot more coal-fired but I'm neither convinced that we can move that fast nor want to think about where the road is taking us....

peaky · Post by **peaky** » 29 Aug 2005, 09:21

Well done Clive - and interesting expansion on the info you supplied at Peak Speak. I've posted it on to a few friends.

Post by **clv101** » 29 Aug 2005, 09:55

peaky wrote:Well done Clive...

Chris!

andyh · Post by **andyh** » 29 Aug 2005, 13:49

Yes excellent thought provoking piece - I reckon you should forward it to a few journos

peaky · Post by **peaky** » 29 Aug 2005, 22:52

clv101 wrote:
peaky wrote:Well done Clive...
Chris!

Oops, sorry! That's twice now; I'll be kicked off the board soon.

Must try harder
Must try harder
Must try harder

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 30 Aug 2005, 08:36

clv101 wrote:
peaky wrote:Well done Clive...
Chris!

If you do it 3 times you get a special badge

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 08 Sep 2005, 23:41

UK Gas Resources are in a Precarious State
by Jeremy Cresswell

http://www.energybulletin.net/8743.html

UK Gas resources are in a precarious state, with output falling faster than either the Department of Trade or the UK Offshore Operators Association had anticipated, according to a leading Scottish energy economist.

Tony Mackay, of Mackay Consultants, warns that official projections show UK production remaining in the range 85-100billion cu m per year for the three years, 2005-07, but the latest statistics show an annual decline of about 9%.

"If that continues, there will be serious supply shortages during the winter months," Mackay told Energy, adding that Britain's gas self-sufficiency effectively ceased last year and not this, as is commonly believed.

"There are major pipeline and LNG import projects under way, but most of them will not be in place until 2007 or 2008. The solution will probably be a substantial reduction in the use of gas for electricity generation and an increase in imports of coal. The implications for the UK's balance of payments are frightening."

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 20 Sep 2005, 15:45

And the forecast for this winter is? bitterly cold with heavy snow and power blackouts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... hill18.xml

It has prompted fears that, with improvements to the national gas infrastructure still under construction, a prolonged cold spell will see the demand for power, both gas and electricity, exceed supply.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 20 Sep 2005, 15:58

fishertrop wrote:And the forecast for this winter is? bitterly cold with heavy snow and power blackouts

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/main.jh ... hill18.xml

It has prompted fears that, with improvements to the national gas infrastructure still under construction, a prolonged cold spell will see the demand for power, both gas and electricity, exceed supply.

I hope that that forecast is as accurate as the one predicting a really hot summer this year,

Peter.

PowerSwitchJames · Post by **PowerSwitchJames** » 20 Sep 2005, 16:41

Metcheck, who are pretty accurate usually (they got this summer right, for example) reckon it will be an average winter.

Blue Peter · Post by **Blue Peter** » 20 Sep 2005, 16:45

PowerSwitchJames wrote:Metcheck, who are pretty accurate usually (they got this summer right, for example) reckon it will be an average winter.

Here's hoping.

October 15th is the date to check, apparently,

Peter.

fishertrop · Post by **fishertrop** » 20 Sep 2005, 17:04

Lets hope so !

But I can't help thinking that the only (extremely blunt) tool we have to effect change in the Uk is a crisis, so maybe we're better having this one asap and getting to grips with it.....

Post by **mikepepler** » 20 Sep 2005, 17:05

I use Metcheck too. They seem to base their winter predictions on snow cover in Eurasia. I'm not a meterologist, so I've no idea how valid this is, but the Met Office seem to be basing their forecast more on the NAO:
http://www.met-office.gov.uk/research/s ... index.html

If I had to choose between Metcheck and the Met Office, I reckon I'd go with the latter, seeing as that's who the generating companies are listening to.

Anyway, I like snow, providing the power stays on...

If not, I'll get to try out my thermal clothing, camping stove and backup lighting...

biffvernon · Post by **biffvernon** » 20 Sep 2005, 20:09

I thought it depended on a butterfly in California.