Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

Here's a good comment on the Ukrainian rare earth non-deal:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-rare-earth-minerals

[Ralphw2]

The satellite company appears to be still selling images to Russia. So Trump is actively supporting Russia military in the war.

[UndercoverElephant]

Here's a good comment on the Ukrainian rare earth non-deal:
https://spectrum.ieee.org/ukraine-rare-earth-minerals

So there's either some deviously complex masterplan that nobody understands except Trump, or there is no plan.

I'm going for the latter.

[invalid]

Ah, I see!! When Russia loses territory it is permanent, but not the other way around!

Do you somehow think that Ukraine can hold a gew villages with improvises defences when they' couldnt hold Bakhmut or Adviivka?

Given that they are still advancing and the Russian defence is all over the place? Yes, obviously. Russia does not have the (willing and capable) manpower to defend its entire front line. That is the whole point.

You've really hit it out the park with all your predictions in this conflict.

[UndercoverElephant]

Do you somehow think that Ukraine can hold a gew villages with improvises defences when they' couldnt hold Bakhmut or Adviivka?

Given that they are still advancing and the Russian defence is all over the place? Yes, obviously. Russia does not have the (willing and capable) manpower to defend its entire front line. That is the whole point.

You've really hit it out the park with all your predictions in this conflict.

Ah yes. Like I didn't spend 6 months before the US elections saying "If Trump wins then anything could happen."

My prediction was, in fact, spot on.

Nobody takes anything you post seriously.

[Mark]

You've really hit it out the park with all your predictions in this conflict.

Nobody is as wide of the mark as Comrade Putin...
Would you like to remind us how his 2 week Special Military Operation is going ??

[UndercoverElephant]

I think we're heading for a much bigger crisis within the United States.

At the moment Trump is thinking something like this: I can use US power to create a win-win situation here -- I can put pressure on Ukraine to end the war on Putin's terms, thus giving the US an opportunity to extort resources out of Ukraine at the same time as ending the ongoing costs to the US of the war!

The problem is this isn't going to work, because Europe isn't just going to sit idly by while Putin gets the whole of Ukraine. Rather, Europe is going to do everything in its power to prevent Russia from walking over the rest of Ukraine -- the war is going to continue regardless of the withdrawal of US support.

What does Trump do next? He has got rid of the cost of supporting Ukraine, but he won't get his mineral deal and he won't get a ceasefire. Is the US actually going to actively support Russia in a vicious war against the rest of NATO? The problem, rather obviously, is that this is sending us towards a situation where the US is actually at war with Europe. Which is completely unthinkable. Is the US deep state and the sane half of the US public just going to meekly accept the US getting involved in a proxy conflict with Europe, at the behest of a demented idiot??

Europe can't back down on this. There is no possible outcome where Europe sides with the US and Russia against Ukraine. So how does it end? It looks to me like the options are either that the US deep state removes Trump from the equation, or the US slides towards some sort of civil war.

I realise this is all completely insane, but it also looks like exactly where we are heading. I'd love to hear people's thoughts.

[Mark]

This is pretty much my reading of the situation too....
I think Europe getting involved militarily (more than just 'peace keeping') might be rapidly coming in to play....
Imagine military analysts are working overtime to work out how effective we can be without US support/intelligence etc.
Russian conventional forces are greatly weakened and maybe we can push them out of Donbas & Crimea reasonably quickly....
However, we need to expect that our power/data cables will be cut, food supplies disrupted, missiles fired at London, Paris, Berlin etc.
We could end up in a low-level conflict for decades.....

In order to prevent, it would helpful if Trump could fall out of a window in Washington....
It would also help if something similar could happen to Putin...
Narcissistic power crazed old men....

[Ralphw2]

War is clearly a serious possibility, but which countries would get involved? I can't see Germany joining in before they have a new working coalition. Italy has a populist government that is cool on helping Ukraine, Spain? Obviously the baltics, Sweden, Finland, Poland. Under what command structure? There is no EU military command, and we would need to suspend Hungary first anyway. UK isn't in the EU anyway. NATO has the command structure, but could that be even considered without the US? We cant just borrow the hardware and infrastructure. France is clearly up for a fight, Netherlands now has a right wing government. Would Starmer get stuck in with an actively hostile US sitting in airbases all over the country?

This has a horribly 1936 feel about it. Europe is nowhere near prepared for war, but we can't wait for Russia to regroup and re-arm, we need to attack whilst they are heavily depleted by three years of meat grinder operations.

The West has never had an identifiable end point for the war , it is even less identifiable now. The war will not end whilst Putin is alive, and I can't see Europe winning it whilst Trump is alive.

[clv101]

It looks to me like the options are either that the US deep state removes Trump from the equation, or the US slides towards some sort of civil war.

And to think, two years ago folk were talking of a palace coup in Moscow!

[clv101]

Europe is nowhere near prepared for war, but we can't wait for Russia to regroup and re-arm, we need to attack whilst they are heavily depleted by three years of meat grinder operations.

How much of a 'war' would it really be though? Russia's army in Ukraine don't seem to be much up on the Iraqi army or 1990. Europe could achieve air superiority, and pick off every last tank and artillery piece at our leisure. The 'boots on the ground' are all Ukrainian, what could they achieve with a few hundred British/French/Dutch/German/Polish etc fast jets in the air? We just have to be willing to sustain some losses.

[invalid]

The lads are assaulting Sudzha right now. Russia has the cards.

[UndercoverElephant]

War is clearly a serious possibility, but which countries would get involved? I can't see Germany joining in before they have a new working coalition. Italy has a populist government that is cool on helping Ukraine, Spain? Obviously the baltics, Sweden, Finland, Poland. Under what command structure? There is no EU military command, and we would need to suspend Hungary first anyway. UK isn't in the EU anyway. NATO has the command structure, but could that be even considered without the US? We cant just borrow the hardware and infrastructure. France is clearly up for a fight, Netherlands now has a right wing government. Would Starmer get stuck in with an actively hostile US sitting in airbases all over the country?

This has a horribly 1936 feel about it. Europe is nowhere near prepared for war, but we can't wait for Russia to regroup and re-arm, we need to attack whilst they are heavily depleted by three years of meat grinder operations.

The West has never had an identifiable end point for the war , it is even less identifiable now. The war will not end whilst Putin is alive, and I can't see Europe winning it whilst Trump is alive.

I think we are looking at the same scenario, yes. The UK-US relationship could turn very bad very quickly, and there must people planning for that eventuality right now.

We do have one big advantage in this situation, in that our Prime Minister is not a demented idiot. Trump thinks he's a boss like no other, but he's clearly vulnerable to manipulation in a way most politicians aren't, and he hasn't got a strategy.

[UndercoverElephant]

Europe is nowhere near prepared for war, but we can't wait for Russia to regroup and re-arm, we need to attack whilst they are heavily depleted by three years of meat grinder operations.

How much of a 'war' would it really be though? Russia's army in Ukraine don't seem to be much up on the Iraqi army or 1990. Europe could achieve air superiority, and pick off every last tank and artillery piece at our leisure. The 'boots on the ground' are all Ukrainian, what could they achieve with a few hundred British/French/Dutch/German/Polish etc fast jets in the air? We just have to be willing to sustain some losses.

Absolutely. So the big question is to what extent Putin is willing to use nuclear weapons if Russia is pushed back in that way. And how the US responds to that. But I don't think we have any choice but to plan for exactly this scenario.

[Mark]

Chinese drones that can swim.....
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/zieglerr ... 9616-Spjm/