Ukraine Watch...

[BritDownUnder]

I think the only leverage the UK has got is our intelligence network. If Starmer manages to coordinate with the other 5 eyes nations to cut off all US access to national facilities and data feeds simultaneously, and shut down US embassies and other buildings and immediately deport all US diplomatic staff and Corden off US military bases, we might just get the US military to knock some sense into Trump, possibly very forcefully.

I can dream

But think what effect this might have on the property and rental market in areas like around Harrogate for example!

It might save some people getting run over by Americans driving on the wrong side of the road.

From what I can see in Australia and NZ the US has a very firm control over the eavesdropping sites here. They have practically forbidden access to Australians at Pine Gap in Australia. I am not sure about the New Zealand site (Waihopai?) as it looks like it might be fully automated.

[Mark]

This seemed acceptable when there was a friendly regime in the White House....
Now we have a MAGA regime that doesn't seem to believe in alliances or partnerships, it looks like a massive mistake...

[Ralphw2]

Trump is being rational in purely short termist views of the geopolitics of Russia. The US has spent a lot of money over the last 80 years rebuilding Europe after the war (whilst the UK dutifully paid up for lend lease hardware for generations). Maintaining the military bases and standing armies in UK and Europe to fend off communist Russia was very expensive, but seen as good value politically. The collapse of the soviet union was a major opportunity to rebuild Russia in the European image, but instead they got neo liberal economics and gnagsterism and lead to a whole generation turning to the gangster /kgb operative in chief to bring stability and prosperity, at least for the white elite.

When Putin invaded Ukraine it was apparent in a matter of days that he had drastically miscalculated, and instead of turning tail Putin put the entire remnants of the soviet era war machine into the front line, where it has spent three years being ground down in the killing fields.

Trump now knows that there is very little left of the Russian war machine or manpower, with almost no chance of ever directly threatening the US militarily again, leaving aside nuclear weapons. So he is saying job done, pull the plug. Save the money and/or extort whatever we can out of Ukraine on the way out. As for Europe, they don't buy much of our goods, so who needs them as a market? slap huge tariffs on them and put the money in new car plants in the US. Of course we don't buy US markets because they are products of the US neoliberal system where quality and safety are very secondary to profit, so Europe says not thank you.

However, Trump has forgotten soft power, financial, internet and communication services, and intelligence sharing. If we kick the US out of 5 eyes and tax internet services we will be poorer and less safe, but it will at least give the US a major geopolitical and financial headache. We can let them rejoin when a new administration shows some humility

[adam2]

USA under trump has voted with russia and North korea in tonight's UN vote. Shocking.

[BritDownUnder]

USA under trump has voted with russia and North korea in tonight's UN vote. Shocking.

Compromat perhaps. Navigating the next four years will be difficult that is for sure.

[UndercoverElephant]

USA under trump has voted with russia and North korea in tonight's UN vote. Shocking.

Indeed. There are many terrible things happening now that were nevertheless within the scope of what I thought was possible. This is quite some way outside of it. America is leaving the West.

USA under trump has voted with russia and North korea in tonight's UN vote. Shocking.

Compromat perhaps. Navigating the next four years will be difficult that is for sure.

Surely Trump is not in control of the US "deep state", and surely they cannot allow four years of this. I think it leads to civil war.

[BritDownUnder]

Some thing in The Guardian about Europe spending more on Russian Oil and Gas than aid to Ukraine. Not a good place to be.

In the same 'newspaper' there was a story about a cork lined house that had a low power bill. People need to take action on a personal level I think.

[clv101]

Indeed. There are many terrible things happening now that were nevertheless within the scope of what I thought was possible. This is quite some way outside of it. America is leaving the West.

This was always on the cards. This book focuses on it (The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, Zeihan), the inevitability of US withdrawal, what it means for the rest of the world to lose the post-war American overwatch.

US isn't as much leaving the West, as focusing inward with external relationships being transactional.

[UndercoverElephant]

Indeed. There are many terrible things happening now that were nevertheless within the scope of what I thought was possible. This is quite some way outside of it. America is leaving the West.

This was always on the cards. This book focuses on it (The End of the World Is Just the Beginning, Zeihan), the inevitability of US withdrawal, what it means for the rest of the world to lose the post-war American overwatch.

US isn't as much leaving the West, as focusing inward with external relationships being transactional.

I wasn't just talking about security and money. I believe it is heading in an entirely new ideological direction. I am talking about the total abandonment of the ideological principles which defined the modern West. It is now looking possible that democracy will survive in Europe, but be totally destroyed in America.

EDIT: What I am saying is that we are seeing a cultural divergence which probably cannot be undone. Ultimately we may need to change sides ourselves. Our future may lie closer to China than America.

[Ralphw2]

Some of Trump's minions are now calling for Canada to be expelled from the 5eyes intelligence group. Presumably so that they cannot see the US forces massing on the border ready for the drive north.

If that happens I sincerely hope the UK quietly copies their feed back across the Atlantic.

With the US beginning to deploy their new spy satellite swarm based on Elon's starlink network, using modified starlink satellites, their requirement for far flung reconnaissance bases will be greatly reduced. Everywhere on earth will be visible 24 hours a day. This is a very big reason why Elon is

1. the richest person in the world
2. has so much power in this administration.

Starlink is probably the single biggest technology that has destroyed the Russian war machine in Ukraine. It integrates EVERYTHING without jamming or spoofing.

[Ralphw2]

As I have mentioned previously, my father and my brother worked at an establishment continuously between them from 1943 to 2024. This establishment did a lot of intelligence gathering, and was a joint operation with US forces from 1944, the US contingent led by John G Trump. (Yes, a close relation).

My brother continued to work, I was by his side, laying in agony 10 days before he died of colon cancer, making phone calls to reschedule what I have to assume were intelligence meetings about the war in Ukraine.

I do not have the words to describe the betrayal I feel on behalf of my brother over some upstart nephew who is throwing away 80 years of treaties and shared values and at my family level two lifetimes of selfless duty and huge creative and military value over financial gain and the chance to chummy up to a world hard man and dictator.

Those that remember Little John may have some idea how I feel.

[UndercoverElephant]

What is astonishing to me is the almost total absence of serious pushback against Trump. I've seen one clip of Bernie Sanders saying the sorts of things that need to be said, but the Democratic Party seems to have been struck dumb. The response is that of a rabbit in the headlights.

[UndercoverElephant]

Why the Democrats can't respond:

https://neuburger.substack.com/p/the-fr ... who-caused

[BritDownUnder]

Those that remember Little John may have some idea how I feel.

If I recall correctly Little John was an out and out Putinite, even giving the impression on this that he is denying veracity of news reports suggesting the gassing of Syrians by Assad forces and throwing the toys out of the pram when people dared to challenge him.

The main problem with Trump may be if he tries to give US intelligence information to Russia. I understand last time he was in office there were some meetings he had with Putin where no other US officials were present. Any evidence of that may be enough to erode his support. Pity because everything he has done except Ukraine I am pretty much in agreement with.

Could be that the Democrats are waiting for Trump to mess up.

I got Starlink recently, and once I remembered to turn off my VPN before connecting to the Starlink system, it installed flawlessly. It works fine in the Australian bush, works in the front dashboard of a car when stationary and moving on the motorway. It does not like buildings around and the car changing directions a lot like in a town. It measures about 30cm by 25cm and uses 25 watts from a car cigarette lighter and is faster than my broadband.

[Ralphw2]

The aspect I was remembering about Little John was his sense of anger when his dad died during the pandemic of a serious condition he identified but the overstretched duty NHS doctors did not. LJ was so overwhelmed at what he saw as his dad's preventable death that he went down the rabbit hole of Covid being a hoax and the vaccines being some sort of major conspiracy (I forget exactly what) end eventually asked to be expunged from Powerswitch site altogether in case "they" (or "we"?) came to get him.

Ukraine is reporting that they have reached a deal with Trump over mineral rights. US has not confirmed.

Maybe Ukraine has a different assessment of just how much and how economic the mineral resources are under their feet.

Zelinksy to go to US for the big Trump signing photoshoot

This is what you call negotiating with a gun at your head, a machine gun trained on your family, and a nuclear bomber circling your capital city.