Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

But the hot air is already having massive consequences. NATO may already be damaged beyond repair. The fault line described above will not go away. Indeed, it isn't a new fault line -- it is basically the same fault line that first emerged during the American Civil War. Dixie is back, and she's mad as hell.

This fine bit of rhetorical, "profit of doom" hyperbole and fine turns of phrase is supported by precisely zero evidence!
What are these "massive" consequences. (My alarm bells always ring when folk describe something as
massive rather than large or even significant.)

As for the use of "may" above you could indeed say that hell may freeze over tomorrow or indeed that NATO
may indeed be damaged to an extent from which it will quite probably recover!

For NATO to work, Article 5 has to be believed. It must be taken seriously by everybody, inside and outside of NATO. Trump's actions have undermined this in a way that is impossible to fix. Once trust like that has gone, then it is gone.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceqjn74gdwzo

Trump 'very frustrated' and Zelensky must strike minerals deal, says adviser

Give me your minerals or....or....erm, I already seem to have bargained away everything I had to offer you...

What an extra-ordinary situation. How does this end when Trump finally realises he's not going to get most of the things he wants? This "deal" is for support already provided. He's demanding retrospective payment for what was freely given, and offering nothing going forwards. Why would anybody in their right mind accept this deal?

"Hey, I know what... I'm going to offer him a deal he cannot refuse!"

Literally, this is the direct equivalent of a mafia protection racket.

[Ralphw2]

Rumours that Trump is planning to withdraw all US troops from bases in eastern Europe. Reported in a German newspaper.

On current form, this is 100% believable.

Also reported that Putin has offered Trump chances for major trade deals to develop new oil and gas fields, in regions where Russia does not have the technology or manpower to work in the arctic conditions. In exchange for ALL of his Russia's conditions for ceasefire in Ukraine (Full Ukrainian capitulation).

China is looking more and more like the best of a bad lot.

[mr brightside]

Also reported that Putin has offered Trump chances for major trade deals to develop new oil and gas fields, in regions where Russia does not have the technology or manpower to work in the arctic conditions.

I suspected there might be a deal to be done, see what pans out then.

[BritDownUnder]

Give me your minerals or....or....erm, I already seem to have bargained away everything I had to offer you...

Yes they have not been to bargaining school. Telling Russia that the Trump administration does not want NATO membership for Ukraine before the start of negotiations was probably not a good opening gambit. Russia probably thinks it is Christmas. The lack of nous and almost childlike approach to getting their own way is telling.

On another note there was and article about the UK not having tactical nukes but the head of BAE saying that it was possible. The article went on to propose that the UK manufacture tactical nukes and possibly 'lend' them to other NATO members. I hope Australia gets some also. We can actually pay you for them.

Mind you the UK could not muster a single division of infantry and apparently there are more admirals than warships. The Royal Navy could not mount another Falklands mission these days with the same number of ships. The current ships may fare better than the 1980s era ships in terms of air defence perhaps.

[invalid]

Well, In reality, Ukraine is scrambling to make a deal. They simply can't survive without ongoing US support.

[jonny2mad]

Well the lesson is Europe should have done more for its own defence and also done more to be competitive in high tech and business, I think we have had the wrong idea for a very long time .why do we actually need american help only because we chose to be weak and silly

[BritDownUnder]

Good to see you back Mr Mad.

According to the Times, the UK is scrambling to make a deal on the Chagos archipeligo to comply with the Russian and Chinese judges on the ICJ who want it back to Mauritius. Then the Chagossians and their dependents with their newly minted UK passports are rushing to the UK to occupy their council houses and collect their pensions.

I can't help but thinking that Europe, places like Norway that gets about $25bil from the UK each year from gas payments and invests it in their sovereign wealth fund, while spending 1.5% of their GDP on defence, while having a border with Russia. Other places like Germany that are happy to sell the UK people BMWs but don't pay enough to Ukraine. France is also an undercontributer. I can understand the USA's frustration but I think the Ukraine mineral deal was a bit outrageous. They should just convert it to loans like the UK had to pay for in WW2 and only completed paying in 2006. I think there was also some loans to Canada that the UK paid but there were also war loans from Canada that the UK reneged on. In terms of GDP contributions to Ukraine Estonia leads they way.

They say Ukraine has 7% of the worlds titanium - I think it has 7% of the worlds titanium manufacturing/refining - the US is too lazy to make any. Europe is very under resourced in terms of natural minerals. Russia on the other hand is almost self sufficient in war materials - except semiconductors so it makes sense to go for their manpower.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c8rklvrnl7ro

I'll back Ukraine in talks with Trump, Starmer says

This is absolutely fascinating. The West is being remade before our eyes, in a way I don't think anybody expected. The UK is suddenly very relevant. We are no longer America's lapdog. America has stood up and walked off -- it has left the West by completely abandoning the enlightenment values of liberalism, realism and democracy, and it is heading off into something that can't even be compared to European fascism of the first half of the 20th century. It has something in common with that, but also a rank insanity that is more like extreme theocracy, with a large dose of idiocracy. There's no word in English for it yet. "Trumpism" doesn't do it justice -- it over-rates his contribution to it, whatever it is.

Now the rest of the West needs to get its act together, and it might just happen with the CRAZIES out of the equation and Putin thinking he's died and gone to heaven.

[invalid]

The UK is irrelevant, and Starmer is a joke.

[Ralphw2]

Starmer is what we have got. He has always stood for the rule of law. Confronted by a US president who is systematically destroying the rule of law in his own country, when he already has more or less carte blanch in US law for foreign policy, I don't fancy his chances. It is now down to psychology , and I hope he has better psycologists on his team than here on Powerswitch.

On the ground, the Russian push has culminated, almost no territory is being gained in the south and east. Kursk is seeing small Russian gains with retrained and embedded North KOrean soldiers in the front lines.

[Mark]

Starmer is what we have got. He has always stood for the rule of law. Confronted by a US president who is systematically destroying the rule of law in his own country, when he already has more or less carte blanch in US law for foreign policy, I don't fancy his chances. It is now down to psychology , and I hope he has better psycologists on his team than here on Powerswitch.

Trump seems to work primarily on personal relationships.
Can't see it working on any level with Starmer.
Suspect it will be a short meeting.

[Ralphw2]

I think the only leverage the UK has got is our intelligence network. If Starmer manages to coordinate with the other 5 eyes nations to cut off all US access to national facilities and data feeds simultaneously, and shut down US embassies and other buildings and immediately deport all US diplomatic staff and Corden off US military bases, we might just get the US military to knock some sense into Trump, possibly very forcefully. Add in 100% tariffs on all US imports, including subscriptions to the like of DODGY TAX AVOIDERS and eBay fees, YouTube, etc., it might impact on his support from the tecbros. We could also freeze US financial assets.

I can dream

[Mark]

I think the only leverage the UK has got is our intelligence network. If Starmer manages to coordinate with the other 5 eyes nations to cut off all US access to national facilities and data feeds simultaneously, and shut down US embassies and other buildings and immediately deport all US diplomatic staff and Corden off US military bases, we might just get the US military to knock some sense into Trump, possibly very forcefully. Add in 100% tariffs on all US imports, including subscriptions to the like of DODGY TAX AVOIDERS and eBay fees, YouTube, etc., it might impact on his support from the tecbros. We could also freeze US financial assets.

I can dream

Haha - I can't see the conversation going anything like that - Starmer will be treading very carefully....
Getting DODGY TAX AVOIDERS, eBay, YouTube etc. to pay more taxes should be done regardless.

[Potemkin Villager]

I think the only leverage the UK has got is our intelligence network. If Starmer manages to coordinate with the other 5 eyes nations to cut off all US access to national facilities and data feeds simultaneously, and shut down US embassies and other buildings and immediately deport all US diplomatic staff and Corden off US military bases, we might just get the US military to knock some sense into Trump, possibly very forcefully.

I can dream

But think what effect this might have on the property and rental market in areas like around Harrogate for example!