Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

They could never be China, no one can, China is unique. But they could have been a bigger, richer Germany. Russia in 1991 was in a better place than Germany in 1945. There was potential, which now seems lost for at least a generation.

[Ralphw2]

Not much to report on the battlefront. The North Koreans appear to have been withdrawn from direct fighting after reportedly suffering an estimated 50% killed or injured. Even die hard fanatics have their limits. Rumours that they are regrouping and retraining. Russia still making slow advances in the south east. The drone arms race continues apace, with Ukrainians learning to intercept slower fibre optic controlled drones with faster fpv drones, and adding fibre optic control to their own larger 'baba yaga' drones, which have a significant moralle sapping effect on Russian infantry. Both sides are struggling with recruitment and people shortages.

Ukraine is continuing its attacks on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, having hit pumping stations on one of Russia's remaining gas export pipelines. Also continuing attacks on many refineries, with indications that Russian exports are being effectively reduced.

No clear message from Trump or his team on their approach to the war. There seems no immediate prospect of any meaningful talks, and Trump has distracted himself by verbally and economicly attacking his largest trading partners and nominal military allies. His tariffs on Canada in particular are completely out of proportion to their relative problems.

[Ralphw2]

Although not widely reported in the UK media, Trump is reported as linking future aid to Ukraine with access to Ukraine's mineral resources.

Trump wants the USA to be a global empire, with Trump as it's first emperor.

The world needs its 14th March moment.

[adam2]

Although not widely reported in the UK media, Trump is reported as linking future aid to Ukraine with access to Ukraine's mineral resources.

Trump wants the USA to be a global empire, with Trump as it's first emperor.

The world needs its 14th March moment.

That in my view would be less bad than Ukraine becoming part of an enlarged russia, not ideal but perhaps the best that we can hope for.

[BritDownUnder]

I think it is a good idea to link aid to future business. As I posted at the start of the war the UK may very well end up being the sceond largest aid contributor to Ukraine with nothing more than a quick thank you at the end of it while France, Germany and Italy, and probably China end up getting all the rebuilding business. Apparently there are very good mineral resources in Ukraine.

Maybe the UK should send some refugees to Ukraine. Maybe they will help to fight Russia too.

[Ralphw2]

What is purported to be a leak of Trump's peace deal proposal for Ukraine and Russia has been published by the Daily Mail.

The analysis of the proposal I have seen on line is that it gives Russia approximately 110% of what Putin has been asking for, ALL the territory he has annexed or claimed, withdrawal and demobilisation of UKrainian forces beyond a 25 mile DMZ to policed by European troops, rebuilding of Ukraine to be funded by Europe, Ukraine to relinquish all claims to Crimea or the four annexed oblasts, and be banned from NATO FOR EVER.

Requirements on the Russian side , almost non-existant.

If this is accurate, it will be rejected out of hand by Ukraine, and , hopefully, almost all of Europe. It would be even more stupid than the Gaza proposal.

Ukraine has started another (probably quite small) advance in Russian Kursk

[BritDownUnder]

Another defenestration in Russia has been reported.

A Russian musician who opposed President Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine reportedly plunged to his death during a police search.

The musician appears to have fallen victim to the “Sudden Russian Death Syndrome,” a term that gained popularity among commentators after multiple Putin critics mysteriously fell out of windows.

Last November, Russian ballet star Vladimir Shklyarov reportedly fell from the fifth floor of a building. He also spoke out against the invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

[Ralphw2]

Watched a video about the electronic warfare aspects of the Ukrainian invasion, by an analyst who I suspect worked with my brother. Unfortunately it is firewalled. The basic principals haven't changed in 80 years, but in live warfare some technologies have a lifespan of weeks or days before the enemy learns to counter them or even turn them to their advantage. He steered clear of talking about spread spectrum technologies, which I suspect was a bit too close to the day job, but he did highlight some of the drawbacks of using commercial technology, for example cheap Chinese drones, which as part of their comms protocol reported back their operator's location to their chinese cental servers. Once the Russians cracked the encryption, Ukrainian drone operator casualties rose sharply, until they worked out why.

[Vortex2]

If you can afford to power a 10 watt jammer, then you can make if very difficult for the drones as they approach.

I recently saw a photo of Russian soldier with an antenna sticking out his back pack which I suspect might have be for a jammer.

[Ralphw2]

That is true for off the shelf commercial drones which operate on a single known frequency. That was the starting point for this particular arms race. Hence fibre optic drones, channel hopping and AI drones that go autonomous once signal with operator is lost. Probably new techniques which are still secret or in development.

[invalid]

Well, Z man has certainly got himself and Ukraine into a great position here. I'm sure he's looking forward to negotiations.

[Ralphw2]

Back to drones, Ukraine is developing an alternative triangulation navigation system, using the same basic technique as GPS, but with 2 or 3 base stations on the ground transmitting timing signals to help the drone navigate, and using frequency hopping to reduce jamming or spoofing. Of course the base stations would be vulnerable to drone attack themselves, but they would cheap can be set up and left running unattended.

Trump seems to be doing his best to make dire geopolitical situations worse with his megaphone diplomacy, which has all the subtlety of a brick, and is quite open about ignoring international law and US laws and the constitution. He is already ignoring judicial orders to stop enforcing some of his executive orders

He is quite openly a dictator already

[Mark]

Well, Z man has certainly got himself and Ukraine into a great position here. I'm sure he's looking forward to negotiations.

You've been grinding away in that special military operation of yours for 3 years now.....
You've lost masses of men and materials and gained a few miles of scorched earth along with new NATO members on your borders...
And now you have to rely on the US to give you a face saving exit....
Lenin and Stalin will be turning in their graves....

[invalid]

Russia has gained millions of extra people, taken nearly all the most valuable land in Ukraine, added resilience to it's economy, and deepened trade links with the global majority.

What has Ukraine got? Anything left is going on fire sale to US and European corporations. They've lost millions of people - injured killed or fled or living a better life abroad. Certainly Zelensky and some of his chums have managed to make a pretty pie off all the aid...

UK ruling class still intent on sending tens of billions - they don't give a damn about the working class of Britain.

Reports that the largest drone factory in Ukraine was destroyed during the latest strike on Kyiv. Andriivka is almost completely liberated.

[UndercoverElephant]

Russia has gained millions of extra people...

Meanwhile, back in reality, Russia has lost a generation of young men.