I admire your optimism re: prospects for the UK but frankly I dont really share it - the analogy I think both you are using is with the Home Front in WW2 (Dig for victory etc). Unfortunately society is very different now in the UK - more fragmented, much less homogenous, and far more urbanised (and are you sure we have enough usuable land to support 60 million?). Huge swathes of the urban underclass created in the last 30 years are not going to simply turn into greenfingered food producers. Social dislocation will be the norm - folk who have been indulged by the state for all their lives are not the best feedstock for hard graft in the fields. But I imagine the UK will not suffer to quite the extent (at least initially) of say some of the developing countries which rely on massive imports of industrially produced grain etc to feed their millions. The population collapse will certainly not happen overnight but it will happen.
One added frightner for the UK is what happens if it turns from having a moderate temperate climate to having a cold Continental climate. Data coming out recently about the potential shutdown of the ocean conveyor system and hence the Gulf Stream looks very worrying.
Me? I'm off to buy a good plot of agricultural land in New Zealand. Its only got 4 million folk in an area the size of the UK, gets 70% of its electricity from renewables, its generally an agrarian, low urbanised (bar Aukland), homogenous society that it relatively socially cohesive. Has to be a better bet than the UK.
[PVpost] How do we feed 60 million people without oil
Moderator: Peak Moderation
thats okI admire your optimism re: prospects for the UK but frankly I dont really share it
Nope not methe analogy I think both you are using is with the Home Front in WW2 (Dig for victory etc).
Mostly I agree but you might be surprised what fat lazy people will do when asked to "work or starve".society is very different now in the UK - more fragmented\ much less homogenous\ and far more urbanised (and are you sure we have enough usuable land to support 60 million?). Huge swathes of the urban underclass created in the last 30 years are not going to simply turn into greenfingered food producers. Social dislocation will be the norm - folk who have been indulged by the state for all their lives are not the best feedstock for hard graft in the fields.
Yes it will be worse for many other countries.But I imagine the UK will not suffer to quite the extent (at least initially) of say some of the developing countries which rely on massive imports of industrially produced grain etc to feed their millions. The population collapse will certainly not happen overnight but it will happen.
Yes thats not a nice prospect. Apparently we will return to having the same climate as Labrabor in Canada which is the one we had before the atlantic convoyerOne added frightner for the UK is what happens if it turns from having a moderate temperate climate to having a cold Continental climate. Data coming out recently about the potential shutdown of the ocean conveyor system and hence the Gulf Stream looks very worrying.
NZ has many attributes. I hope things work out for you.Me? I'm off to buy a good plot of agricultural land in New Zealand. Its only got 4 million folk in an area the size of the UK gets 70% of its electricity from renewables its generally an agrarian low urbanised (bar Aukland) homogenous society that it relatively socially cohesive. Has to be a better bet than the UK.
Me I staying here and doing my bit to make it work.
I am with mieke on this
First, NZ is probably the country in the best position to survive PO well for all the reasons mentioned. The only problem might be all those Australians living on a mostly desert island!
'Mostly I agree, but you might be surprised what fat lazy people will do when asked to work or starve". ' - but you have to add 'or steal'
Why should a small gang of young men work hard on some field in a society where law and order is no longer widely respected due to lack of police presence caused by lack of government funds when they can simply turn up, steal fuel, steal food and steal women (sorry to be sexist about it but its unlikely they would want me) as they please. Some people will regard this as the life they always wanted but were too afraid to enact.
There are enough criminal gangs now when the police have huge financial resources. Reduce that a little and the gang culture will just grow.
First, NZ is probably the country in the best position to survive PO well for all the reasons mentioned. The only problem might be all those Australians living on a mostly desert island!
'Mostly I agree, but you might be surprised what fat lazy people will do when asked to work or starve". ' - but you have to add 'or steal'
Why should a small gang of young men work hard on some field in a society where law and order is no longer widely respected due to lack of police presence caused by lack of government funds when they can simply turn up, steal fuel, steal food and steal women (sorry to be sexist about it but its unlikely they would want me) as they please. Some people will regard this as the life they always wanted but were too afraid to enact.
There are enough criminal gangs now when the police have huge financial resources. Reduce that a little and the gang culture will just grow.
I think a breakdown of law and order and general civil unrest are some of the most important aspects of a post PO UK.
If you look at Iraq today, the establishment can't get any of the serious infrastructure projects off the ground because of lack of law and order.
You could not switch the Uk to a self-sufficient and sustainable energy and food paradigm without some law and order.
So I totally agree that it is a major problem and I totally agree with much of what has been said about crimanl gangs and taking goods by force.
But
There are 60m people in the uk, and they can't all steal - many must work in order for there to be anything TO steal, otherwise the I live by taking food by force" crowd with still die.
The bulk of the 60m people are decent and reasonable if soon-to-be very desperate. Many will realise that they need to work together in order to survive they will realise that whilst some will steal and use violence not everyone can.
I am sure this won't be an easy transition but I think many defacto communities (ie. your immediate neighbours) will realise these things:
1) You have to be your own police force - you can already become an unpaid "special" today and have some power of law behind you. You can be your own police in any case.
2) You have to work together at food production - bill grows spuds while bob grows beans.
3) You have to provide assistance to your neighbours for free - help then dig up their driveway to plant food and don't expect them to pay you for your help.
I don't say this as a warm and cuddly view of "love they neighbour" I say it because I think most people (esp those with families) will sooner or later come to realise it's better produce your own stuff than it is to steal it and you can gaurd your own stuff if enough of you group together.
Ancient england was full of marauding tribes bandits and violence but it was also full of self-supporting communites that worked together and took up arms toegther to protect what they had.
The gangs of maruading chavs looking to steal your chickens will be a nasty fact of life but you and your nearest 5 neighbours with big sticks will just have to beat them off - if you want your families to eat (and that is as big a defence motivator as it is an excuse to steal).
You can't steal from unworked and barren fields and most people WANT to live - they will work because otherwise they will die."
If you look at Iraq today, the establishment can't get any of the serious infrastructure projects off the ground because of lack of law and order.
You could not switch the Uk to a self-sufficient and sustainable energy and food paradigm without some law and order.
So I totally agree that it is a major problem and I totally agree with much of what has been said about crimanl gangs and taking goods by force.
But
There are 60m people in the uk, and they can't all steal - many must work in order for there to be anything TO steal, otherwise the I live by taking food by force" crowd with still die.
The bulk of the 60m people are decent and reasonable if soon-to-be very desperate. Many will realise that they need to work together in order to survive they will realise that whilst some will steal and use violence not everyone can.
I am sure this won't be an easy transition but I think many defacto communities (ie. your immediate neighbours) will realise these things:
1) You have to be your own police force - you can already become an unpaid "special" today and have some power of law behind you. You can be your own police in any case.
2) You have to work together at food production - bill grows spuds while bob grows beans.
3) You have to provide assistance to your neighbours for free - help then dig up their driveway to plant food and don't expect them to pay you for your help.
I don't say this as a warm and cuddly view of "love they neighbour" I say it because I think most people (esp those with families) will sooner or later come to realise it's better produce your own stuff than it is to steal it and you can gaurd your own stuff if enough of you group together.
Ancient england was full of marauding tribes bandits and violence but it was also full of self-supporting communites that worked together and took up arms toegther to protect what they had.
The gangs of maruading chavs looking to steal your chickens will be a nasty fact of life but you and your nearest 5 neighbours with big sticks will just have to beat them off - if you want your families to eat (and that is as big a defence motivator as it is an excuse to steal).
You can't steal from unworked and barren fields and most people WANT to live - they will work because otherwise they will die."
What was the UK population pre- the oil age? ie pre 1880s? Surely that will give us some clue about the carrying capacity? Sure health care would be better (even as the NHS falls to bits we will still know more than back then about disease prevention etc), but you have to say pre-oil figures seem likley. I think pre-oil world pop was 1 billion (and thats presumably where that figure comes from).
From the posts above I am getting the impression folk are looking towards the evolution of small locally policed communities. Ironic - almost a case of reverse evoultion towards tribalism. Certainly one strong possible outcome. Citizen militia, vigilantism? Time to think about where you might get firearms and how to use them. What depressing thoughts but they need thinking.
Yes NZ seems as good a place as any - a you say though the Aussies may start to eye their 'little sister' enviously. Mianly their own fault though - they have depleted their acquifers for 50 years - there has been enough warning for them to have done something before now.
From the posts above I am getting the impression folk are looking towards the evolution of small locally policed communities. Ironic - almost a case of reverse evoultion towards tribalism. Certainly one strong possible outcome. Citizen militia, vigilantism? Time to think about where you might get firearms and how to use them. What depressing thoughts but they need thinking.
Yes NZ seems as good a place as any - a you say though the Aussies may start to eye their 'little sister' enviously. Mianly their own fault though - they have depleted their acquifers for 50 years - there has been enough warning for them to have done something before now.
Does this not assume that the land carrying capacity in the 1880's was the sole limit on population growth? I don't believe this was the case.What was the UK population pre- the oil age? ie pre 1880s? Surely that will give us some clue about the carrying capacity?
I'm afriad I'll have to disagree with you on that one old chap...but you have to say pre-oil figures seem likley
Communtiy policing? Say they all signed up to be special constables.....Citizen militia vigilantism?
Few chavs have guns; me and five neighbours with batons could get through a lot of scallies without the need for firearms if it meant the difference between starvation and eating.Time to think about where you might get firearms and how to use them.
You can't beat all attackers - a bunch of villans with shooters will likely get what they want - it's the everyday scumabgs who just want to take what you have who are the main problem and you can keep those out with a trunchon and some resolve.
There is little about peakoil that is nice :-What depressing thoughts but they need thinking.
This link (pinched from a peakoil.com forum):
http://statistics.defra.gov.uk/esg/quick/agri.asp
Puts 2004 UK "all food" self-sufficiency at 63% and "indigenous type food" at 74%
Thats with nasty UK farming methods but is also using only the current farming land and also at current UK consumption and waste rates."
Pre oil our population was approx 11 million, and remember that at that time there was a severe land wood fuel shortage.
If you get hold of one of those local books which has photos of your town from 100 years ago you will see a landscape with far less tree cover, and most hill sides given over to grazing sheep & cattle.
The prospects for a high production agriculture without oil look somewhat limited from a historical perspective.
I have been seriously considering NZ for the sake of my family, however they have just raised the residency application period to five years, and I am worried about being booted out of the place when economic problems hit the country. The idea of being foricibly repatriated without a bean to my name whilst trying to protect my family doesn't appeal.
If you get hold of one of those local books which has photos of your town from 100 years ago you will see a landscape with far less tree cover, and most hill sides given over to grazing sheep & cattle.
The prospects for a high production agriculture without oil look somewhat limited from a historical perspective.
I have been seriously considering NZ for the sake of my family, however they have just raised the residency application period to five years, and I am worried about being booted out of the place when economic problems hit the country. The idea of being foricibly repatriated without a bean to my name whilst trying to protect my family doesn't appeal.
If you start with
1) You dedicate the tail-end of North Sea oil and gas to continuing current farming methods for some considerable time - which would be possible if this was your main strategy (banning all private cars would free a huge amount of north sea oil for farming)
2) You phase out current faming practices and replace them with sustainable ones as soon as you can (like Cuba)
In many respects the first option makes sense - eating is more important than just about anything so ring-fencing as much north sea oil as is required is reasonable. Compared to private car usage I imagine even today's nasty farming practices use a small percentage of total Uk oil (sorry no figures to hand!).
Obviously the downside to option one is that you are keeping alive the patient with a life-support machine that can't last forever - the sooner you embrace the structural changes the better.
On the 2nd point modern organic farming methods produce between 75% and 95% of the yields of the agri-buisness methods (tho the corporations don't like you to hear that).
So if you expand option 2 to be a plan based on:
1) Best use of latest organic methods
2) Huge reducation in food waste (nothing goes in the bin)
3) Small reductions in overall consumption
4) Every house must swap the lawn for the vegie patch
5) Some land currently not used for farming is turned into allotmants
You end up with a decent amount of food being supplied from a combination of localised farming and domestic production.
Obviously this is not an easy transition (esp for those that live in inner cities ) and significant details would need developing fully but it does give me hope that at least a viable solution is possible if in no way easy.
then it strikes me you have 2 main choices:UK all food" self-sufficiency at 63% and "indigenous type food" at 74%
1) You dedicate the tail-end of North Sea oil and gas to continuing current farming methods for some considerable time - which would be possible if this was your main strategy (banning all private cars would free a huge amount of north sea oil for farming)
2) You phase out current faming practices and replace them with sustainable ones as soon as you can (like Cuba)
In many respects the first option makes sense - eating is more important than just about anything so ring-fencing as much north sea oil as is required is reasonable. Compared to private car usage I imagine even today's nasty farming practices use a small percentage of total Uk oil (sorry no figures to hand!).
Obviously the downside to option one is that you are keeping alive the patient with a life-support machine that can't last forever - the sooner you embrace the structural changes the better.
On the 2nd point modern organic farming methods produce between 75% and 95% of the yields of the agri-buisness methods (tho the corporations don't like you to hear that).
So if you expand option 2 to be a plan based on:
1) Best use of latest organic methods
2) Huge reducation in food waste (nothing goes in the bin)
3) Small reductions in overall consumption
4) Every house must swap the lawn for the vegie patch
5) Some land currently not used for farming is turned into allotmants
You end up with a decent amount of food being supplied from a combination of localised farming and domestic production.
Obviously this is not an easy transition (esp for those that live in inner cities
) and significant details would need developing fully but it does give me hope that at least a viable solution is possible if in no way easy."Fossil fuel use by sector 2003, million tons of oil equivalent
Consumer expenditure ? not travel 38.10
Electricity production coal 32.32
Electricity production gas 24.50
Consumer expenditure ? travel 22.65
Air Transport 13.68
Water Transport 7.94
Road freight 7.48
Refined petro products 6.48
Heath, vet and social work 2.72
Public admin defence 2.25
Education 1.97
Wholesale trade 1.88
Pulp and paper 1.74
Plastic products 1.53
Public admin (excluding defence) 1.45
Buses and coaches 1.44
Recycling 1.18
Fertilizers and Nitrogen compounds 1.05
Motor Vehicles 1.05
Textiles 1.00
Hotels and restaurants 0.95
Plastics and synthetic rubber 0.79
Pharmaceuticals 0.72
Agriculture 0.68
Post and Telecoms 0.66
Railways 0.36
Man made fibres 0.12
Pesticides and agro chemicals 0.11
Metro and light rail 0.03
Consumer expenditure ? not travel 38.10
Electricity production coal 32.32
Electricity production gas 24.50
Consumer expenditure ? travel 22.65
Air Transport 13.68
Water Transport 7.94
Road freight 7.48
Refined petro products 6.48
Heath, vet and social work 2.72
Public admin defence 2.25
Education 1.97
Wholesale trade 1.88
Pulp and paper 1.74
Plastic products 1.53
Public admin (excluding defence) 1.45
Buses and coaches 1.44
Recycling 1.18
Fertilizers and Nitrogen compounds 1.05
Motor Vehicles 1.05
Textiles 1.00
Hotels and restaurants 0.95
Plastics and synthetic rubber 0.79
Pharmaceuticals 0.72
Agriculture 0.68
Post and Telecoms 0.66
Railways 0.36
Man made fibres 0.12
Pesticides and agro chemicals 0.11
Metro and light rail 0.03
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SherryMayo
- Posts: 235
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Melbourne, Australia
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Ippoippo
- Posts: 255
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Bath->Tokyo->Cardiff-> Hokkaido, Japan next?
Interesting to see you are looking at this option DamianB.DamianB wrote:It'd be very hard to be kicked out of New Zealand if they've nothing to transport you away from the place with. There's not a lot of oil in NZ and I doubt they've the fighting force to get some.
I was considering Ireland at one stage, but NZ seems a better bet. Downside is that it would be easier to get to Ireland (from a Visa point of view) than NZ.
One thing, I've got to get myself off this volcanic rock that is Japan! (Kicks himself for not knowing about PO one year ago)
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Blue Peter
- Posts: 1939
- Joined: 24 Nov 2005, 11:09
- Location: Milton Keynes
I'm not sure that it is Damian, actually. I think from another thread that he is also considering buying some land and setting up a commune, and no doubt many other schemes including preparing his current house with renewable energy and working an allotment (I think that that really is him).GavinT wrote:Interesting to see you are looking at this option DamianB.DamianB wrote:It'd be very hard to be kicked out of New Zealand if they've nothing to transport you away from the place with. There's not a lot of oil in NZ and I doubt they've the fighting force to get some.
Because of the cut and paste restoral of old threads, it looks like he has a multiple personality disorder, as he argues with himself, throws up numerous incompatible schemes and asks himself questions which he then answers. As a tip, Damian, if you are thinking of setting up a commune, you might just have blown your chances. Anyone coming on here in later months is going to think that you're the site nutter. Unless you can convince them that it's all because of your shamanistic powers which leads you to be possessed by various powerful spirits (very useful on the other side), you won't stand a chance
Peter.
LOL, I must admit I thought "Damian's had a change of heart!", but no, that's the PV conversation!
I thought I'd throw in the ASPO April 2005; article no. 524 - Living fairly comfortably without fossil fuels
I thought I'd throw in the ASPO April 2005; article no. 524 - Living fairly comfortably without fossil fuels
Any takers?This theoretical exercise is an attempt to calculate, roughly, how many people could live sustainably in the United Kingdom when crude oil, natural gas and coal are no longer obtainable in useful quantities by any means. The date is around 2150, and Earth?s population is greatly reduced (Stanton, 2003).
...
Today, UK population is about 60 million. In 1750, when the Industrial Revolution was beginning, it was about 6 million. It had never exceeded this figure, although during the Dark Ages and after the Black Death it fell to one or two million. Most people lived and died in poverty. Pre-industrial farmers were pushed to the limit to feed so many. The population increased slightly in years with good harvests, but starvation and malnutrition cut it back to the 6 million norm when harvests were bad.
...
The popular assumption is that renewable energy sources, perhaps including uranium, plutonium and just possibly nuclear fusion, will smoothly replace fossil fuels as these become scarce, thanks to our inherited technological expertise.
Unfortunately, the popular assumption could hardly be more wrong. Wind, wave and tide turbines, of which so much is expected, are constructed and maintained using massive tonnages of steel and concrete.
...
There remains biomass, which, 250 years ago, supported the UK?s 6 million population in chronic poverty. Quality of life is closely related to energy consumption per capita, so to ensure a passable standard of living I must reduce the hypothetical population to only 2 million.
Here's a taker on the William Stanton article:
What side are they on?
Also the review section on peak oil .com makes interesting reading...
What side are they on?
Also the review section on peak oil .com makes interesting reading...