"Gas reserves have plunged to a “concerning” low with just a week of supply left as Britain braces for low wind speeds and freezing temperatures this weekend.
The UK’s storage sites are now only half full, according to British Gas owner Centrica – 26pc lower than this time last year.
It comes as the country faces calm weather until the end of the week, as well as an amber warning for cold. The Met Office is predicting lows of between -15C and -20C in parts of Scotland and the North of England on Friday evening."
In my view it is something to worry about, but only a bit. Winter is now half over, windy weather is bound to return soon which will reduce gas burnt in power stations.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
The UK is still finding enough gas, presumably from Norway or LNG, to basically run CCGT baseload of 15-20GW most of the time except when the winds are relatively strong. I expect if wind capacity is still being installed then the amount of gas required will go down every year.
This week Ireland had a warning of low grid capacity that was posted on Linkedin.
It would be nice for the UK to have had some high efficiency coal power stations available that could be run in winter and some more nuclear capacity to replace imported natural gas but the powers that be decided not to. Decisions made in the 1990s could have improved the situation now the country seems to be broke and can't afford anything now.
I read that the Swedish Energy minister was complaining about the Germans being so desperate and paying so much for electricity imports from Sweden that it is disadvantaging Swedish consumers. The Germans really need to have a purge to get rid of all the Stasi sleepers that are still present within the German political establishment.
I would support a doubling of installed wind power capacity, and also a doubling of PV. That would supply a large proportion of our electricity most of the time. AND give a surplus for export at times. For the foreseeable future we would still need some gas burning capacity, but the intention should be to reduce this year on year.
Today wind power has averaged around 2 to 3 GW, doubling that to 4 or 6 GW would still leave a gap to be filled by gas, but a smaller gap than at present. In windy weather, wind power regularly exceeds 10 GW would significantly reduce gas used. In very windy weather, 15 GW is produced from wind, doubling that would cover most of the night time demand.
Solar PV production today exceeded 2GW for some hours and reached over 3 GW, Doubling that would save even more gas, but some would still be needed. Doubling solar production would supply a large part of Summer day time demand.
The proposed large pumped storage plant at Coire Glas in Scotland could supply 1.3 GW for about 24 hours, a considerable help. Hopefully it will be built ! And enough renewable generating capacity to fill it (and other existing pumped storage capacity) using renewable energy.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
Gas storage in the UK is trivial, it's not a strategic reserve like countries on the continent have. Our total storage capacity is only equivalent to a few large LNG deliveries. Our storage is a operational asset, used to up flow rates over short periods.
adam2 wrote: ↑10 Jan 2025, 23:44
I would support a doubling of installed wind power capacity, and also a doubling of PV. That would supply a large proportion of our electricity most of the time. AND give a surplus for export at times. For the foreseeable future we would still need some gas burning capacity, but the intention should be to reduce this year on year.
All correct but I feel that investing in more solar and PV will only have the effect of saving an amount of gas. The CCGT, or even OCGT, backup power stations will still be needed but just run for less of the time. A law of diminishing returns will take effect unless long term storage is brought in. Australia is slowly realising this is a problem too that expensive storage will be needed.
Solar PV contribution was surprisingly large in the UK for at least some days of the last week but in my opinion the best place for solar PV is on the roof of the place that uses the electricity.
The UK continues to believe that the market knows best in electricity and gas.
Yes, eliminating gas will be a very considerable challenge, but substantially reducing gas use is a good start. Doubling wind and solar capacity WILL eliminate gas under favorable conditions, but not under all conditions.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
I chatted to Ali Miraj yesterday on LBC about the PR stunt from Centrica who described 'concerningly low' levels of gas storage in a press release which led to front page headlines - all part of their lobbying push for more policy support for Rough gas storage. I say stunt, because the UK has a very secure and diverse gas system and Rough was actually closed for 5 years between 2017 and 2022 and we were fine without it. I think it's actually pretty terrible because as I point out in the interview, there are some real energy security issues in the UK, namely that our actual supplies of gas are running out rapidly (my thoughts on that here https://lnkd.in/eWna8rYS). The facts that number 10 were telling the media this was a lobbying stunt and that National Gas were saying gas storage 'remains healthy' says a huge amount! I also can't help but feel that this was playing on the tight (but ultimately fine) electricity market owing to low renewable output last week and trying to play on the anti clean energy agenda. We need to use less gas to enhance our energy security and of course, to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions. That's been obvious to me for some time. And clearly we, and the media, need to take press releases from fossil fuel incumbents with a very large pinch of salt. I'm on from 5 minutes in.
Vortex2 wrote: ↑15 Jan 2025, 14:56
Following the repeated use of Storm Shadows, I wonder if the Russians would be tempted to hit Canvey Island, or one of the LNG carriers?
Could the UK survive the disruption?
I suspect that an overt military attack would be a step to far and an act of war. I do consider that there is a risk of "accidents" at LNG unloading and storage facilities. A single suicidal attacker with a spanner and a box of matches could cause substantial destruction. Perhaps the russians could subcontract such to islamic terrorists ?
Such an attack should be survivable but would require emergency gas saving measures, these would result in very considerable disruption and some hardship.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
