Reform Party Watch

[Forever_Winter]

So Lee Anderson leaves the Tories and joins Reform.

What do the PS folks think? I like the political direction of Reform (i.e. a good center right party) but in other areas they are bonkers. Plus, they deny climate change is a thing.....what do you lot think?

[UndercoverElephant]

If they are in it for the long game then British politics will be transformed. It will have a major influence on how the tories rebuild after their coming collapse. There is not enough room on the right of UK politics for both of them. Not with Labour smack bang in the centre.

[Mark]

I wouldn't describe Reform as 'good' or 'centre right', but they are polling about 12%...
Personally, I think they have scope to get up around the 20% mark, but even at that level, they won't win too many seats...
The UK's Electoral System is rigged against the smaller parties...

Even so, a good showing may well influence the policies of the two major parties...
Hopefully not on climate change though - changing course on that would be a disaster....

[UndercoverElephant]

Hopefully not on climate change though - changing course on that would be a disaster....

Globally, we're currently going full steam ahead towards maximum climate catastrophe, and the probability of changing course is nil. Therefore what the UK actually does is irrelevant to the outcome. I am obviously not saying this because I think "we shouldn't do anything". I'm saying it because I believe it is true, and for no other reason.

[clv101]

Hopefully not on climate change though - changing course on that would be a disaster....

Globally, we're currently going full steam ahead towards maximum climate catastrophe, and the probability of changing course is nil. Therefore what the UK actually does is irrelevant to the outcome. I am obviously not saying this because I think "we shouldn't do anything". I'm saying it because I believe it is true, and for no other reason.

I mostly agree with that, in that we (globally) certainly aren't going to proactively deal with emissions and climate change. However, what the UK does really does matter - not so much for global atmospheric concentrations but for the general wellbeing of the population/economy. For example - if, under the guise of addressing climate change, we make the UK economy significantly more energy efficient, insulate buildings, generate the majority of our energy from indigenous sources etc, that improves wellbeing, and reduces risks associated with imported oil and gas.

Improving efficiency and resilience are big domestic wins, even if globally it makes virtually no impact on CO2 concentrations.

[Forever_Winter]

Reform have signed up 100k members That is nearly or possibly surpassing the Tories. What does everyone think??

[clv101]

Party membership doesn't mean what it used to.

[UndercoverElephant]

Electoral Calculus has a fascinating general election prediction up.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/pre ... _main.html

These are the seat predictions (low/pred/high).

CON 70/176/285
LAB 128/310/378
LD 41/71/86
Reform 23/36/221

My bold. The libs have a mid-prediction to high range of 15. For Reform that figure is 185. Also note the huge difference between Labour's low prediction and medium. What this tells us is that if Reform can build up a head of steam, something quite extraordinary is possible at the next election. I think I said previously I thought a Tory/Reform coalition would be impossible, but we might end up in a situation where that is the only configuration that can deliver a government at all. At this point it is a toss up between a Lab-Lib coalition and a Tory-Reform coalition which would presumably mean Farage as deputy PM. Unless Reform wins more seats than the tories, in which case Farage will be Prime Minister.

[adam2]

I have some limited sympathy with some policies of the Reform Party, but can not agree with their stance on climate change.

I am also concerned that splitting the right wing votes between Reform and the Conservatives could result in a labour victory when this would not have otherwise occurred.

[UndercoverElephant]

I have some limited sympathy with some policies of the Reform Party, but can not agree with their stance on climate change.

None of the mainstream parties are capable of making any difference to climate change. That horse has already bolted.

I am also concerned that splitting the right wing votes between Reform and the Conservatives could result in a labour victory when this would not have otherwise occurred.

That may well happen in some seats. Whether it is enough to deliver Labour a second term looks increasingly doubtful.

[UndercoverElephant]

Since I posted that prediction, coincidentally Farage has been interviewed by Kuehnsberg. They were talking about (among other things) the reason why the problem of gang rape by groups of primarily Pakistani-British males has been systematically ignored by the police, social services and government. There has been no inquiry as to how this was allowed to happen, because it is scandalous beyond belief. The truth, as only Farage appears to be willing to speak, is that the establishment has been intimidated by the liberal-left to the extent that they were so scared of being unjustly accused of "racism" or "islamophobia" that they preferred to allow the problem to continue unchallenged. The reason why there has been no inquiry is that the entire mainstream political establishment is guilty as charged.

I don't know who I am supposed to support. Elon Musk has got absolutely no clue about ecology or our systemic problems, and no right to intervene in British politics (especially as he does not seem to have much knowledge of any of the details of what he's intervening about, but it has nothing to do with him anyway). There are many Reform policies I cannot support. But I truly believe we are overdue a cultural reckoning about this and the whole of the woke insanity that currently dominates politics in the West.

I have previously said I voted Reform only because they had no chance of actually winning. Now I'd say I want them to win.

[Forever_Winter]

Musk has gone on record saying Farage should be replaced as leader of Reform as he doesn't have what it takes...

[UndercoverElephant]

Musk has gone on record saying Farage should be replaced as leader of Reform as he doesn't have what it takes...

Hard to keep up with this!

Musk is currently behaving like somebody drunk on power. Being rich doesn't make you smart. He doesn't have the political clout to say something like that about Farage and for people to take it seriously (in the UK, at least).

[Forever_Winter]

Musk has gone on record saying Farage should be replaced as leader of Reform as he doesn't have what it takes...

Hard to keep up with this!

Musk is currently behaving like somebody drunk on power. Being rich doesn't make you smart. He doesn't have the political clout to say something like that about Farage and for people to take it seriously (in the UK, at least).

Agree UE. Musk is a risk taker whose bets have paid off. He has an eye for attention to detail but that doesn't mean this view works in UK politics. There is no way Farage can go anywhere near Tommy Robinson and say his party is mainstream. I saw that former Reform UK member Ben Habib was backing Musk and putting the boot into Farage, as Farage booted him out of Reform. Habib wants his pound of flesh....

[BritDownUnder]

The eternal problem of the UK Radical Right. Everyone wants to be the leader at the same time and noone can agree on anything.

Farage is a bit of a plonker but I would give him a chance to see if he can make inroads against the Conservatives, and Labour too hopefully.