Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

I think that putin is probably bluffing and will not actually resort to nuclear weapons.

If however he DOES use nukes, then the free world needs to consider what would be a suitable response. Some senior military figures are in favour of "doing a Dresden", this meaning a devastating response with conventional weapons only.
Carpet bomb Moscow and other urban centres until little remains. Capture and execute the russian leaders. Divide former russian territory among their former neighbours. Disarm the remnants.

[Forever_Winter]

I think that putin is probably bluffing and will not actually resort to nuclear weapons.

If however he DOES use nukes, then the free world needs to consider what would be a suitable response. Some senior military figures are in favour of "doing a Dresden", this meaning a devastating response with conventional weapons only.
Carpet bomb Moscow and other urban centres until little remains. Capture and execute the russian leaders. Divide former russian territory among their former neighbours. Disarm the remnants.

Agree Adam. Probably Split Russia between China and the West. Probably add in Turkiye to take over the Stans. I'd use small scale bunker busting nukes against underground facilities...

[clv101]

...this meaning a devastating response with conventional weapons only.

The west could literally eliminate every Russian tank and artillery piece in Ukraine within a fortnight, if it wanted to. That we didn't in the first month of the war, and still haven't is telling. A few small nukes in Ukraine isn't likely to change things much IMO.

[adam2]

I can not support the West using nuclear weapons. A few small bunker busting nukes against buried russian facilities is rather tempting, but is crossing a very dangerous line indeed.
"We" should retain the moral high ground by not resorting to nukes. The destruction of major urban areas by conventional carpet bombing is in my view a reasonable response, but NOT nuclear weapons.
" Three D" is an expression that I have heard, meaning
1)Destroy major urban areas by conventional bombing, including long range missiles carrying conventional explosives only.
2) Disarm the bombed remnants, capture and execute the leaders
3) Divide the defeated territory among neighbouring nations. But only among friendly democratic nations.

Point 3 is important, so as to avoid making a future enemy of the defeated russia, think for example of Germany after the first war. After this war there WONT BE A RUSSIA any more. Just an enlarged Turkey, Ukraine and many other places.

[adam2]

Breaking news, in the last few minutes, it has been announced that America will supply anti personnel mines to Ukraine. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2d1lj3nwqo

[invalid]

Oh dear - there is no helping you, is there?

Russian gains accelerate as Ukraine's Kursk gamble falters

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cn0dpdx420lo


You don't seem to be fully with it up there, but, anyway, do you still consider it 'odd' (oh no!) to acknowledge the fact that there is no stalemate?

[Ralphw2]

The rate of the Russian advance has increased. If it continues at the rate in September it will now only take another 30 years and 18 million casualties to complete the 10 day special military operation.

[UndercoverElephant]

I may be wrong, but it looks to me like there isn't much Russia can do to further escalate this conflict apart from use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. They are already doing everything within their conventional capabilities. And I tend to agree with Adam that Putin is bluffing.

But my intuition also tells me that the current phase of escalation is connected to Trump's victory, though I am not sure in which way.

There is a sense here in which Trump's unpredictability and incompetence might be an asset. It is possible to make educated guesses about what the Biden administration is going to do, but Trump is a serious wild card. This puts Putin in a very tricky position. Does Russia want to end up in a proxy war with the US with Trump and his team of rookie yes-people making the big calls?

[Ralphw2]

Russia is already widely using things like CS gas which is technically a banned chemical weapon and a war crime. Use of more lethal chemical weapons is too much of a double edged sword on the battlefield.

The US is giving Ukraine anti personnel mines now, which are evil weapons I would rather not see used, which does suggest that Russian meat wave tactics are about to get even more expensive in casualties

[clv101]

I may be wrong, but it looks to me like there isn't much Russia can do to further escalate this conflict apart from use nuclear, chemical or biological weapons. They are already doing everything within their conventional capabilities.

Change comes not when Russia 'tries harder' but when Ukraine collapses. I've long expected a collapse of the Ukrainian military, and still do.

[Mark]

1)Destroy major urban areas by conventional bombing, including long range missiles carrying conventional explosives only.
2) Disarm the bombed remnants, capture and execute the leaders
3) Divide the defeated territory among neighbouring nations. But only among friendly democratic nations.

Point 3 is important, so as to avoid making a future enemy of the defeated russia, think for example of Germany after the first war. After this war there WONT BE A RUSSIA any more. Just an enlarged Turkey, Ukraine and many other places.

Point 3 is impossible to achieve. The likely winner in any carve-up would be China. They're not losing any men or machinery in this conflict, but are eying up huge swathes of resource rich land in the East. They always play the long game, and must be rubbing their hands in glee...

[UndercoverElephant]

The likely winner in any carve-up would be China.

The prospect of this happening would presumably prompt the US to cross the Bering Straight and take a significant chunk of territory in the north-east.

[Forever_Winter]

Labour cutting defence spending. Lord help us.....

[Forever_Winter]

I'm wondering if Putin is still in Russia? He could be long gone....

[Forever_Winter]

Storm Shadow missiles used in Russia for the first time, apparently against a high-value target. Everyone is being tight-lipped about it ...