Labour Party/government Watch

[Forever_Winter]

Oh dear. Plodder Starmer is really dumb ..

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/1 ... post-kemi/

[Forever_Winter]

There could be a farmer's strike next week. Food shortages expected. Best to get stocked up while you still can. Could this bring Plodder Starmer's government down?

[BritDownUnder]

There could be a farmer's strike next week. Food shortages expected. Best to get stocked up while you still can. Could this bring Plodder Starmer's government down?

I don't know too much about the supply and production of food but I would expect the farmers of the UK have produced the years crop by now so they are probably resting or repairing things already. Livestock may be different and things like vegetables and salad crops will be continuously produced or more likely imported from abroad.

[UndercoverElephant]

Could this bring Plodder Starmer's government down?

No.

[clv101]

Labour really are awful at 'politics'. They are fuelling a protest movement they won't be able to contain - for what? Pretty tiny amounts of money. Did they just wake up and want to start a new fight?

[Forever_Winter]

Could this bring Plodder Starmer's government down?

No.

What about if they block the ports, as some reports are suggesting? I remember when we had the fuel protests in 2000, which caused a ton of trouble, but Blair was in a much better position back then.......

[Forever_Winter]

Labour really are awful at 'politics'. They are fuelling a protest movement they won't be able to contain - for what? Pretty tiny amounts of money. Did they just wake up and want to start a new fight?

They seem to be engaging in what I call 'student politics' i.e. the type you get educated idiots banging on about in universities before they enter the real world. This lot will just double-down on the decisions they've made, as they don't want to have any egg on their faces.

[UndercoverElephant]

Could this bring Plodder Starmer's government down?

No.

What about if they block the ports, as some reports are suggesting? I remember when we had the fuel protests in 2000, which caused a ton of trouble, but Blair was in a much better position back then.......

I believe Starmer can deal with this sort of problem and come out of it stronger. Nothing can bring his government down. His majority is too big for that.

[Forever_Winter]

No.

What about if they block the ports, as some reports are suggesting? I remember when we had the fuel protests in 2000, which caused a ton of trouble, but Blair was in a much better position back then.......

I believe Starmer can deal with this sort of problem and come out of it stronger. Nothing can bring his government down. His majority is too big for that.

Starmer's majority is large but the voter turnout was small, compared to the US election. The farmers could bring him down easily by blocking the ports. As the saying goes ' bellies rumble regimes crumble '

Seriously though, Starmer's government has a very short shelf life

[UndercoverElephant]

What about if they block the ports, as some reports are suggesting? I remember when we had the fuel protests in 2000, which caused a ton of trouble, but Blair was in a much better position back then.......

I believe Starmer can deal with this sort of problem and come out of it stronger. Nothing can bring his government down. His majority is too big for that.

Starmer's majority is large but the voter turnout was small, compared to the US election. The farmers could bring him down easily by blocking the ports. As the saying goes ' bellies rumble regimes crumble '

How, exactly, would he be brought down? Blocking the ports doesn't bring a government down. Government can only be brought down by MPs.

[clv101]

Indeed - very hard to see how Starmer's government is brought down. Blocking ports absolutely will not 'easily' bring him down. The absolute best the current protests can hope for is a delay and further consultation on the inheritance tax changes.

But, note, the changes to inheritance tax is perfectly reasonable, a soft touch and those attacking the changes very quickly have to resort to special pleading.

[Forever_Winter]

I believe Starmer can deal with this sort of problem and come out of it stronger. Nothing can bring his government down. His majority is too big for that.

Starmer's majority is large but the voter turnout was small, compared to the US election. The farmers could bring him down easily by blocking the ports. As the saying goes ' bellies rumble regimes crumble '

How, exactly, would he be brought down? Blocking the ports doesn't bring a government down. Government can only be brought down by MPs.

Violence probably, if things get bad enough. Seems to work in other places.

[Forever_Winter]

Indeed - very hard to see how Starmer's government is brought down. Blocking ports absolutely will not 'easily' bring him down. The absolute best the current protests can hope for is a delay and further consultation on the inheritance tax changes.

But, note, the changes to inheritance tax is perfectly reasonable, a soft touch and those attacking the changes very quickly have to resort to special pleading.

The projected amount that IHT on farms raised will be low, around £230m in the 1st year (from some sources). I believe that the idea behind raising the IHT was to stop wealthy private individuals or groups buying up farms / farmland from avoiding IHT. Ironically, a lot of these farms will have to be sold and will probably be bought up by large private equity interests or large institutions (i.e. Blackrock comes to mind). This is pretty much the opposite of what was trying to be achieved.

They could have gone after private equity carried interest which could have raised a lot more (likely in the hundreds of millions if not the billions), but they've gone for easy targets by the looks of it. This swill just drive mass-affluent (i.e. not really rich but pay the bulk of taxes) out of the UK.

[UndercoverElephant]

Indeed - very hard to see how Starmer's government is brought down. Blocking ports absolutely will not 'easily' bring him down. The absolute best the current protests can hope for is a delay and further consultation on the inheritance tax changes.

But, note, the changes to inheritance tax is perfectly reasonable, a soft touch and those attacking the changes very quickly have to resort to special pleading.

Yes, I agree. The people who will be most affected are extremely wealthy compared to average Joe, and their whining doesn't really hold water. I have heard some very poor arguments...."Farmers aren't doing it to earn profits; they are doing it to feed the country!" Yeah, right.

[Forever_Winter]

Indeed - very hard to see how Starmer's government is brought down. Blocking ports absolutely will not 'easily' bring him down. The absolute best the current protests can hope for is a delay and further consultation on the inheritance tax changes.

But, note, the changes to inheritance tax is perfectly reasonable, a soft touch and those attacking the changes very quickly have to resort to special pleading.

Yes, I agree. The people who will be most affected are extremely wealthy compared to average Joe, and their whining doesn't really hold water. I have heard some very poor arguments...."Farmers aren't doing it to earn profits; they are doing it to feed the country!" Yeah, right.

Apparently a farmer with a 1M farm earns a return of around £30-50k after costs but this is highly variable of course. That's a terrible rate of return. I earn a lot more than that by sitting on a seat pushing buttons on my laptop. It makes you wonder why they do it. 1M invested in the S&P 500 this year would be returning about £230k before CGT .

Don't forget that a farm is a highly illiquid asset; difficult to sell quickly unless you want to sell quickly to a low bidder who is likely to be an institutional investor. Who would you rather own these farms? A family or some institutional investor such as Blackrock?

Don't get me wrong - I'm not on anyone's side either way, but I think there needs to be some balance.