Ukraine Watch...

[Mark]

Russian drones hunt civilians, evidence suggests:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c207gz7key6o

Yet another new low from the Russians....
Lets hope those in charge end up in The Hague when all this is over....

[invalid]

**John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute**

Ukraine’s invasion (of Kursk) was a major strategic blunder, which will accelerate its defeat. The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty-exchange ratio, not capturing territory, which Western commentators obsess over. The casualty-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive decisively favors Russia for two reasons. First, it has caused relatively few Russian casualties because Ukraine’s army effectively overran undefended territory. Second, once alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. Unsurprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge proportion of their equipment. 

To make matters worse, Kyiv removed top-notch combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine — where they are desperately needed — and made them part of the Kursk strike force. This move is tilting the already lopsided casualty-exchange ratio on that critically important front further in Russia’s favor. It is no wonder — given what a foolish idea the Kursk incursion is — that the Russians were caught by surprise.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep injecting that koolaid.

Would you like to reassess your opinion on the Kursk expedition now?

[UndercoverElephant]

**John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute**

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep injecting that koolaid.

Would you like to reassess your opinion on the Kursk expedition now?

No. Go away.

[invalid]

Interesting to know what 'victory' looks like in Putin's Special Military Operation ?
Hundreds of thousands of dead Russian soldiers/citizens...
Massive loss of equipment and degradation of military capability...
Massive destruction of the contested lands and increasingly in Russia itself...
Massive loss of money and ongoing sanctions for years to come...
Massive loss of face and prestige, plus new NATO members on the Russian border...
A gain of a few deserted towns and villages...?

In recent weeks, however, the Russians have been advancing. Across the frontline, Ukrainian defences are crumbling at the fastest rate since 2022. In October, Russia swallowed nearly 310 miles (500km) of Ukrainian territory including more than 15 sq miles around Kupiansk. Two-thirds of these losses of territory have been in the neighbouring Donetsk region. Ukraine’s southern sector there is close to collapse....
Soldiers said conditions on the frontline were tough. “We don’t have enough to shoot with. They fire 10 shells for our one,” said Oleksandr Isaiev, a 59-year-old sapper. The Russians had more personnel and armoured vehicles, he said, and dropped between eight and 12 KAB glided bombs a day on his position. “If one lands on you, you’re dead. They make a hole 5 metres deep and 10 metres’ across,” he said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... es-ukraine

Mark, what are you doing? You really need to speak to these people, they seem worried about something? If you just let them know how badly degraded the Russian military is, I'm sure it will comfort them. Also, isn't Putin humiliated? Er, something. That's what matters right?

[Forever_Winter]

What's happened to Default 0ptions? He/her/it hasn't posted of late....is the robot dead?

[UndercoverElephant]

What's happened to Default 0ptions? He/her/it hasn't posted of late....is the robot dead?

Shhhh. Just take the win.

[Forever_Winter]

What's happened to Default 0ptions? He/her/it hasn't posted of late....is the robot dead?

Shhhh. Just take the win.

[Ralphw2]

In the last few days it looks like the front lines are stalling to a large extent, so I guess the autumn mud is in full season. There continue to be videos show of significant armoured Russian attacks suffering heavy losses, probably because they have to attack along metalled roads and so the Ukrainians have their artillery ready and waiting for them.

One unconfirmed video of a Russian POW saying he was attacking alongside NK troops, who proceeded to open fire on the Russian troops, forcing him to surrender to the Ukrainians. No way of knowing how accurate his account is.

Indications that Russia may be preparing for a new offensive on the southern front. The recent advaninces to the east have made resupplying troops in the south easier by putting the rail lines out of reach of most UKrainian drones and artillery

[Mark]

In the last few days it looks like the front lines are stalling to a large extent, so I guess the autumn mud is in full season.

Yup, that's my suspicion too....
Another winter stalemate - retrench and restart in the Spring....

[Ralphw2]

The recent DHL warehouse fires were in packages from Lithuania, and contained magnesium which was probably designed to defeat fire containment in an aircraft hold. Arrests have been made, the attacks are assumed to be Russian directed and it is reported that future attacks were to be aimed at US flights

I am suspicious of the recent fire at the Faslaine nuclear sub port in Scotland, which injured at least 2. I have heard no further reports

[adam2]

News report re above https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c07912lxx33o

[BritDownUnder]

The recent DHL warehouse fires were in packages from Lithuania, and contained magnesium which was probably designed to defeat fire containment in an aircraft hold. Arrests have been made, the attacks are assumed to be Russian directed and it is reported that future attacks were to be aimed at US flights

I am suspicious of the recent fire at the Faslaine nuclear sub port in Scotland, which injured at least 2. I have heard no further reports

I think magnesium is also used to start thermite reactions. Burns very hot in air.

Still quite a lot of disaffected Russians in Lithuania left over from the collapse of the Soviet Union so probably a lot of willing helpers for the GRU.

Lithuania
82.6% Lithuanians
6.3% Poles
5.0% Russians
2.1% Belarusians
1.7% Ukrainians
2.3% others

Latvia
63.0% Latvians
24.2% Russians
3.1% Belarusians
2.2% Ukrainians
1.9% Poles
1.1% Lithuanians
0.3% Roma
0.2% Jews
4% others /

Estonia
68% Estonians
22% Russians
5% Ukrainians
5% other
0.6% unknown

[Mark]

I am suspicious of the recent fire at the Faslaine nuclear sub port in Scotland, which injured at least 2. I have heard no further reports

The fire was at BAE's shipyard in Barrow (Cumbria) where our nuclear subs are built...
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c2l90qg795zo

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/czxrwr078v7o

Trump adviser says Ukraine focus must be peace not retaking territory

I don't believe it is possible to do a peace deal that Putin will respect unless it involves full NATO membership for Ukraine. In other words a line must be drawn under Russian expansionism, and this time the line must be underwritten with the full force of NATO protection. Empty promises aren't enough, both because of the previous failure of the US to protect Ukraine after it agreed to give up Soviet nuclear weapons, and because Putin cannot be trusted to abide by treaties he signs.

[Mark]

Ukraine's about to be sold down the river...