Ukraine Watch...

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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by UndercoverElephant »

Potemkin Villager wrote: 02 Sep 2024, 16:58 There may be fewer obstacles on China's path to where they say they want to go but this will not necessarily lead to the desired outcome as previous examples of mass social transformation programmes have very vividly shown. A perusal of any texts on the cult of Mao will show how badly the authoritarian top down approach panned out for the people before.
The authoritarian approach delivered population control and then cultural change so that population control is no longer needed.
How may million deaths have you in mind this time around?
None. My interest is westernising the concept of ecocivilisation, not running the world.
There is also the added difficulty that the people people will be asked to accept substantially less, than they have become accustomed to, rather than promising more and have to be made to believe that this huge reduction in material comforts is good for them.
I know.

This is the current blurb I am planning for the back cover of the book:
This book explores how the impending collapse of civilisation as we know it, rather than being solely a catastrophe, can be seen as a pivotal opportunity for essential ideological and systemic transformation. As we approach the most significant paradigm shift since the Scientific Revolution, the flaws in our current worldview—particularly the dominance of growth-based economics and politics, metaphysical materialism and deconstructionist postmodernism—have become increasingly apparent. Yet, despite the evident failure of our growth-driven economic model, there remains no clear consensus on what should replace it. Politically, neither the neoliberal right nor the postmodern left are willing to confronting the realities of this. And despite the total failure of materialistic science to account for consciousness or explain what quantum theory tells us about the nature of reality, the scientific establishment cannot, in the words of Thomas Nagel, “wean itself off the materialism and Darwinism of the gaps”.

In contrast, China has embraced the concept of "Ecocivilisation" as one of its national goals, positioning it as the ultimate societal state. This raises profound questions for the West: How might the concept of Ecocivilisation be adapted within a Western context? What could substitute for Taoism in this adaptation? What will happen to growth-based capitalism when the unsustainability of growth can no longer be denied? How could Ecocivilisation be achieved without abandoning democratic principles, given that almost nobody in the West shows the slightest inclination to accept restrictions on their own individual rights to behave in an unsustainable manner?

At first glance, these challenges appear insurmountable, with few serious attempts—inside or outside academia—to address them. The majority of people are not even fully aware of the questions that need to be asked, much less prepared to explore the answers. This book aims to explore what real options remain for humanity and for western civilisation in particular. When viewed from the perspective of somebody who hasn't accepted the inevitability of some degree of collapse, all these realistic options look so bad that the differences between them might seem irrelevant. But in fact, the range of possible futures still open to us is unimaginably vast, and small differences now could make an enormous difference in the future. We can think of it as something like the butterfly effect, except with ideas.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Potemkin Villager
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Potemkin Villager »

I think you really need to slash this down to something a lot punchier
of no more than 100 words! If someone who is critically appreciative of what you are
trying to get across finds their eyes glazing over imagine the lack of response
from a more hostile general readership.

China, along with all governments, interest is primarily their own sustainability come what may.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Ralphw2
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Ralphw2 »

Although the post communist (pragmatically speaking) leadship in China, has shown signs of understanding the concept and needs for ecocivilisation, the current leader has cemented his power base in the system to be point that he is effectively an old style autocratic dictator, with military pretensions to a greater China or even an empire. He may even be in contro of a military and navy that can deliver it for him. I fear that the future political direction of China when economic collapse comes will be just as much crash and burn as Russias is proving to be, and ecocivilisation will get lost in the noise
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by BritDownUnder »

There is a lot of difference between what China says and what China does.

When I was working there I saw a lot of old Chinese city houses with gardens being demolished and replaced with high rise apartments with no gardens. Young people were leaving the countryside and agriculture for life in factories in cities. Farmers face a high burden of taxation. Contrasting that with a lot of work against desertification in North East China and work in the loess plateau and their greening of their electricity system. I don't think China is getting all that green and causing havoc (e.g. erosion, deforestation, clearing of Brazilian Rain Forest and Pantanal) in other countries where they get their resources and food from.

China also has a good recycling industry many of it informal and the creativity of the people is very impressive.
G'Day cobber!
Ralphw2
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Ralphw2 »

There are signs that UKraine has finally committed some reserves to the defense of Povrosk. The Russian forces are coming up to the last line of prepared defenses a few miles short of the city boundary. In the last few days at least 3 armoured attacks of 5 -12 vehicles across the front lines have been comprehensively attacked and destroyed or retreated. There is about a month before the autumn muds make further advances difficult, and it looks like Putin is throwing everything he has into this single salient to beat that deadline. Ukraine has started using flame thrower drones against Russian occupied tree lines. It is not clear how effective such weapons are against infantry or as a defoliant. Might be quite good at setting fire to ammunition left out in the open, as often happens in Russian forward positions.
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by UndercoverElephant »

Potemkin Villager wrote: 03 Sep 2024, 11:42 I think you really need to slash this down to something a lot punchier
of no more than 100 words! If someone who is critically appreciative of what you are
trying to get across finds their eyes glazing over imagine the lack of response
from a more hostile general readership.
It is just a first draft. I need to finish the actual book before I worry too much about the blurb.
BritDownUnder wrote: 03 Sep 2024, 22:46 There is a lot of difference between what China says and what China does.
You could say the same about any country in the world. This is irrelevant. What I have said is true. China faces fewer obstacles than the West does. We have democracy, capitalism and a phoney war between science and spirituality. They have quasi-communism, authoritarianism and Taoism.

China 3 The West 0.

There is no point in denying this. We need to start by admitting it.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by BritDownUnder »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 04 Sep 2024, 18:09
BritDownUnder wrote: 03 Sep 2024, 22:46 There is a lot of difference between what China says and what China does.
You could say the same about any country in the world. This is irrelevant. What I have said is true. China faces fewer obstacles than the West does. We have democracy, capitalism and a phoney war between science and spirituality. They have quasi-communism, authoritarianism and Taoism.

China 3 The West 0.

There is no point in denying this. We need to start by admitting it.
Oh I admit it alright. They make just about every solar panel and most inverters and even cornering the wind turbine market. I had to look long and hard to NOT get a Chinese made inverter and EV, even then most of the parts inside are probably Made in China.

I always thought Confucianism was more of a driver than Taoism in China but I would have to admit I could not tell the difference. I did however go into a temple dedicated to Tao, made a donation, and met would become my wife later that night so there might be something in it.

I think Confucius is great when there are lots of jobs and 7% annual growth. When there is 25% graduate unemployment and 0% growth even Confucius will struggle to keep people in line. What China has is planning further than the next election but they don't have elections to worry about and that is a difference.
G'Day cobber!
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by UndercoverElephant »

OK. At this point all I can say is you need to read my book. Confucianism and Taoism are not even remotely the same thing. Taoism can provide an over-arching cosmology and ontology. Confucianism cannot. The Chinese have built their concept of ecocivilisation on Taoism -- and not Confucianism -- for very good reasons.

However, this is all very off-topic.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
invalid
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by invalid »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 23 Aug 2024, 11:11
Given that they are still advancing and the Russian defence is all over the place? Yes, obviously. Russia does not have the (willing and capable) manpower to defend its entire front line. That is the whole point. Before this "incursion" almost everybody believed that Russia didn't need to defend the northern half of its border with Ukraine, because Ukraine was "not allowed" to attack Russia inside its own territory. Ukraine just called that bluff, bigtime. That changes the whole dynamic of the war, because now Russia has to defend its entire border.

Keep up, orc apologist.
This one's going to go down just about as successfully as your Crimean beach party prediction 😃. And 'orc apologist'? You think this is Lord of the Things or something? Perhaps this is what has affected your judgement so badly all the way through this conflict.
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by invalid »

Ralphw2 wrote: 30 Aug 2024, 08:41 Population is one of Russia's big weaknesses. They have a rapidly declining population, in part due to the emancipationof women, and the terrible economics of the end of communism, their birth rate crashed and remains well below replacement like most nations. Also, state sanctioned alcoholism , the harsh climate, and poor health services has resulted in a ;ow and declining life expectancy, particularly for men. Finally, the war has directly killed or maimed hundreds of thousands, and triggered mass emigration of as many as a million young, educated, highly economically productive males to avoid being drafted into the war.

If this war had not started in 2022, RUssia would not have the men to start it in 2030
I can think of one country with a far worse demographic problem, that has to kidnap men for their suicidal PR missions off the street, and is now experiencing the inevitable result; mass desertion and dissaray.
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by UndercoverElephant »

invalid wrote: 10 Sep 2024, 23:06 And 'orc apologist'?
I think you know very well that "orc" is Ukrainian slang for the Russians.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Ralphw2
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Ralphw2 »

The RUssian advance on Povrosk has completely stalled for over 10 days now. Kursk incursion has largely stalled with just minor advances in some areas. No sign of significant Russian counter attacks.

The going rate for new Russian sign up bonuses into the army is now 5 years average wages. The Russian nationals who were in the first round of mobilisation 2 years ago have their tour of duty extended indefinitely. They get no rotation out of the front lines. They can only go home in an ambulance or a coffin.

Russian casualties (killed or wounded ) are still estimated at 35,000 a MI ONTH by Western observers. Russia is burning through its cash reserves, most Chinese companies will no longer trade in Roubles due to Western sanctions.

I do not call Russian soldiers orcs , I think it dehumanises them. I pity most of them as they will be decent human beings in a living nightmare. Of course there are exceptions and the Russian military is renowned for its institutional brutality, but the real orcs live in the Kremlin
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BritDownUnder
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by BritDownUnder »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 05 Sep 2024, 07:38 OK. At this point all I can say is you need to read my book. Confucianism and Taoism are not even remotely the same thing. Taoism can provide an over-arching cosmology and ontology. Confucianism cannot. The Chinese have built their concept of ecocivilisation on Taoism -- and not Confucianism -- for very good reasons.

However, this is all very off-topic.
You are probably right and I might just read your book all about it. From what I understand Confucius is all about governance and public behaviour and Tao is maybe the more spiritual stuff.
G'Day cobber!
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by UndercoverElephant »

The West's policy on Ukraine really does not make much sense. We must arm Ukraine enough to stop Russia from winning. But we must not arm Ukraine enough to defeat Russia, because that would pose too great a risk of Russia deliberately trying to draw NATO into direct confrontation in retaliation.

There are only three logically possible outcomes --

(1)Ukraine kicks Russia out of the occupied territory. Alternatively Putin is removed from power and Russia withdraws. (Ukraine wins)
(2)Russia over-runs the whole of Ukraine. (Russia wins)
(3) A negotiated settlement which involves at least some Ukrainian territory being recognised as now Russian. (nobody wins, but the war ends)

None of the above looks likely if the West continues its current policy.

I suppose we could also add

(4) A permanent stalemate such as the one on the Korean peninsula. (the war does not officially end)
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Ralphw2
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Re: Ukraine Watch...

Post by Ralphw2 »

On current form 4 is outcome I think Biden understands. He is a child of the cold war are I don't think he can see a future where Russia is not the enemy. It is certainly the outcome the MIC wants. However, it is not sustainable, Russia still has huge energy resources and has the political control to rebuild its huge, crude conventional weapons military, at the expense of reducing its population to North Korea levels of misery. However, the West cannot sustain the high tech infrastructure it needs to keep Russia at bay in a post peak world.

In any outcome except 1 Ukraine loses
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