Ukraine Watch...

[mr brightside]

Putin is reaping what he has sown. All his pigeons are steadily coming home to roost.

[invalid]

**John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute**

Ukraine’s invasion (of Kursk) was a major strategic blunder, which will accelerate its defeat. The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty-exchange ratio, not capturing territory, which Western commentators obsess over. The casualty-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive decisively favors Russia for two reasons. First, it has caused relatively few Russian casualties because Ukraine’s army effectively overran undefended territory. Second, once alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. Unsurprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge proportion of their equipment. 

To make matters worse, Kyiv removed top-notch combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine — where they are desperately needed — and made them part of the Kursk strike force. This move is tilting the already lopsided casualty-exchange ratio on that critically important front further in Russia’s favor. It is no wonder — given what a foolish idea the Kursk incursion is — that the Russians were caught by surprise.

[UndercoverElephant]

**John Mearsheimer, R. Wendell Harrison Distinguished Service Professor at the University of Chicago and non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute**

Ukraine’s invasion (of Kursk) was a major strategic blunder, which will accelerate its defeat. The key determinant of success in a war of attrition is the casualty-exchange ratio, not capturing territory, which Western commentators obsess over. The casualty-exchange ratio in the Kursk offensive decisively favors Russia for two reasons. First, it has caused relatively few Russian casualties because Ukraine’s army effectively overran undefended territory. Second, once alerted to the attack, Moscow quickly brought massive airpower to bear against the advancing Ukrainian troops, who were in the open and easy to strike. Unsurprisingly, the attacking forces lost many soldiers and a huge proportion of their equipment. 

To make matters worse, Kyiv removed top-notch combat units from the front lines in eastern Ukraine — where they are desperately needed — and made them part of the Kursk strike force. This move is tilting the already lopsided casualty-exchange ratio on that critically important front further in Russia’s favor. It is no wonder — given what a foolish idea the Kursk incursion is — that the Russians were caught by surprise.

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Keep injecting that koolaid.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine has blown one of the bridges over a river to the north west of their current positions in Kursk. They are reported to be attacking the three remaining bridges on the section of river which, if destroyed, would leave a further 700sqkm of Russian territory isolated and the troops unable to be resupplied or evacuated easily.

It would also make the area Ukraine has already invaded much easier to defend. It would make a natural defensive boundary. Putin has reportedly decided that conscripts will be used in the Russian counter attack, to limit the number of front line troops he would need to redeploy.

Ukraine has been suffering losses, at least one Patriot launcher and other hardware. Reportedly one captured Ukrainian was beheaded.

[Vortex2]

I haven't been here for a while.
I see things haven't changed much.
As for the current Ukraine situation:
Anyone who thinks that Putin - or Russians - will put up with the Kursk incursion must be mad. It will be crushed whatever it costs Russia.
Russia is evacuating all the civilians from the are - which makes me wonder why.
Perhaps he will use nuclear weapons on Russian soil - 'nuclear tests'?
Anyway, if Ukraine (or to be precise the US) expects to seize the Russian oil and gas resources without triggering WW3, they must be insane.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine does not want Russian territory. It wants Russians out of Ukrainian territory. The more troops and weapons Putin uses to remove them, the happier Ukraine will be. Fewer on Ukrainian soil. It is happy for the evacuation. Less civilians dead and more internal refugees spreading discontent.

This has been a war of attrition. Ukraine is shaking it up to increase the political cost to Putin with his own people

[BritDownUnder]

Ukraine has blown one of the bridges over a river to the north west of their current positions in Kursk. They are reported to be attacking the three remaining bridges on the section of river which, if destroyed, would leave a further 700sqkm of Russian territory isolated and the troops unable to be resupplied or evacuated easily.

It would also make the area Ukraine has already invaded much easier to defend. It would make a natural defensive boundary. Putin has reportedly decided that conscripts will be used in the Russian counter attack, to limit the number of front line troops he would need to redeploy.

Ukraine has been suffering losses, at least one Patriot launcher and other hardware. Reportedly one captured Ukrainian was beheaded.

Attacking bridges, especially railway bridges in Russia will have a lot of effect especially across the large Siberian rivers. Knocking a few out over the Ob or Yenisei would cut the country in two for large cargoes.

I think a nuclear 'test' could happen but China may disapprove and they are giving the orders now.

[Ralphw2]

Western intelligence will be well aware if Russia started to deploy tactical nukes anywhere near the front, or to bomber airfields. The Siberian bridges are out of range of Ukrainian weapons, their long range drones are not big enough to break them. UK still blocking storm shadow use on Russian airfields, etc.

The west does not want to destroy Russia's strategic weapons, or it's economic infrastructure . It is Putin that is doing that.

[invalid]

Confirmation this morning that British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks are operating inside Russia. Ha! Putin's head must be ready to explode at this point.

Russia loves this. Ukraine bringing all their BEST equipment (though not sure anything British supplied counts) out in the open for It be easily destroyed. All for a PR opp. Meanwhile Ukraine has seemingly given Up the Donbas.

[Ralphw2]

Challenger tanks are not a lot of use in the mine fields and tank traps of the southern and eastern fronts. They are at their best in the open undefended woods and fields of Kursk. Yes the attack is risky and their are being losses. This is war, although Putin still denies it.

[UndercoverElephant]

Confirmation this morning that British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks are operating inside Russia. Ha! Putin's head must be ready to explode at this point.

Russia loves this. Ukraine bringing all their BEST equipment (though not sure anything British supplied counts) out in the open for It be easily destroyed. All for a PR opp.

You really are living in an alternate universe, aren't you? Ukraine's BEST equipment has just taken over 1000 square miles of Russian territory, and most of that equipment and manpower has survived. If Russia had actually succeeded in repelling this "incursion" and inflicting major loss of equipment and men on Ukraine then maybe what you are saying might make sense, but nobody is reporting that this has happened -- not even the Russians themselves. You think Ukraine taking 1000 square miles of Russian territory is a PR operation?

No you don't. Not even you are that stupid. It's pure bravado -- putting a brave face on what is an unmitigated disaster for Putin and Russia. Putin's bluff has been well and truly called. He's spent the last two years warning that if Ukraine was to attack Russian territory then Russia would respond with tactical nukes. And quite a lot of people believed it. They don't anymore, and that means from now on Ukraine is free to take as much territory as it can grab -- the West won't stop them, and it apparently Russia can't stop them.

Meanwhile Ukraine has seemingly given Up the Donbas.

Ah yes, of course. Russia is making rapid gains in the Donbas now. Oh, wait, no that's just more delusional nonsense. Do you think that if you post nonsense on Powerswitch, it becomes real?

[Ralphw2]

Russia is making some gains in one direction in the Donbas. The defending troops are undermanned, heavily outgunned and desperate. Ukraine had a belated mobilisation in May, which should have resulted in 100000 conscripts who should have finished basic training. The Kursk front has an estimated 10,000 on Russian soil, with thousands more for logistics, troop rotation. That leaves up to 80,000 fresh troops unaccounted for. Ukraine has opened two new fronts in each of the last new years...

[Mark]

What worries me most is still the situation at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant
Reports/phots here of a fire at a cooling tower there on 11th August...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... video.html

Zaporizhzhia nuclear safety deteriorating, says UN
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c5y36rdreq1o

If that goes up, we're all in big doo-doo

[Ralphw2]

Second bridge over the river in Kursk all but destroyed by bombing. Pontoon bridge built near the first blown bridge

[UndercoverElephant]

Pontoon bridge built near the first blown bridge

It will probably not have much of a life expectancy. Presumably quite easy for Ukraine to take out.