Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

It is possible that the Russian military is in an even worse state than it appears, it's possible that what's in Ukraine is pretty much all they've got left. If there is a 'palace coup', the whole house of cards could collapse, the Russian Federation collapses into a dozen+ autonomous regions - with decrepit nukes. At that point we see a 50k+ NATO force and a much larger Chinese force rush in to secure the nuclear materials and gain administrative influence over Russia's immense bio-physical resources.

Remember, the Russian land mass is the prize for the 21st century, huge mineral and energy resources, massive agricultural potential, gateway to the Arctic resources and relatively secure from climate change.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2lmr29ygjo

Ukraine's top commander has said Kyiv's forces control 1,000 square kilometres of Russian territory as they press their biggest cross-border incursion in two-and-a-half years of full scale war.

Holy moley. Looks like they are really going for it.

[Ralphw2]

Reports that parts of Belgarod are being evacuated, and early reports of Ukrainians crossing the border into the region. Looks like Ukraine will swing south, possibly to put pressure on the Russian troops in Kharkiv. I expect Ukraine to keep Russia(and us) guessing for as long as possible.

I do worry that if Ukraine continues to take ground at this rate Putin might escalate by an open attack on. NATO country. At the least I think Putin wants Iran to attack Israel and US bases hard

[Forever_Winter]

It is possible that the Russian military is in an even worse state than it appears, it's possible that what's in Ukraine is pretty much all they've got left. If there is a 'palace coup', the whole house of cards could collapse, the Russian Federation collapses into a dozen+ autonomous regions - with decrepit nukes. At that point we see a 50k+ NATO force and a much larger Chinese force rush in to secure the nuclear materials and gain administrative influence over Russia's immense bio-physical resources.

Remember, the Russian land mass is the prize for the 21st century, huge mineral and energy resources, massive agricultural potential, gateway to the Arctic resources and relatively secure from climate change.

You've obviously never been to Russia. I have. It's as vulnerable to climate change as any other country. -80c in winter. +40c in Summer. Loads of mosquitos in the Tundra. And massive methane outflows as the ice thaws....

Cmon CLV, use your brain

[Forever_Winter]

Where are Russo Robots? Gone quiet

[UndercoverElephant]

I do worry that if Ukraine continues to take ground at this rate Putin might escalate by an open attack on. NATO country.

The war will be over pretty quickly if that happens.

[UndercoverElephant]

It is possible that the Russian military is in an even worse state than it appears, it's possible that what's in Ukraine is pretty much all they've got left. If there is a 'palace coup', the whole house of cards could collapse, the Russian Federation collapses into a dozen+ autonomous regions - with decrepit nukes. At that point we see a 50k+ NATO force and a much larger Chinese force rush in to secure the nuclear materials and gain administrative influence over Russia's immense bio-physical resources.

Remember, the Russian land mass is the prize for the 21st century, huge mineral and energy resources, massive agricultural potential, gateway to the Arctic resources and relatively secure from climate change.

You've obviously never been to Russia. I have. It's as vulnerable to climate change as any other country. -80c in winter. +40c in Summer. Loads of mosquitos in the Tundra. And massive methane outflows as the ice thaws....

Cmon CLV, use your brain

I think Chris is correct. It may not seem very appealing now, but 50 years from now it is going to look rather attractive. My opinion.

[UndercoverElephant]

Two excellent articles:

https://www.kyivpost.com/analysis/37222
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/37247

[clv101]

It is possible that the Russian military is in an even worse state than it appears, it's possible that what's in Ukraine is pretty much all they've got left. If there is a 'palace coup', the whole house of cards could collapse, the Russian Federation collapses into a dozen+ autonomous regions - with decrepit nukes. At that point we see a 50k+ NATO force and a much larger Chinese force rush in to secure the nuclear materials and gain administrative influence over Russia's immense bio-physical resources.

Remember, the Russian land mass is the prize for the 21st century, huge mineral and energy resources, massive agricultural potential, gateway to the Arctic resources and relatively secure from climate change.

You've obviously never been to Russia. I have. It's as vulnerable to climate change as any other country. -80c in winter. +40c in Summer. Loads of mosquitos in the Tundra. And massive methane outflows as the ice thaws....

Cmon CLV, use your brain

Key word is 'relative'. Russia will be, is being negatively impacted but in a 3-4 degree warming world, Russia is likely to see less negative impacts than Europe. For starters, London will succumb to sea level rise while Moscow won't.

[clv101]

I do worry that if Ukraine continues to take ground at this rate Putin might escalate by an open attack on. NATO country. At the least I think Putin wants Iran to attack Israel and US bases hard

Which NATO country and with what weapons? Surely Kyiv has gone to the top of the target list now that the case can be made that Ukraine has attacked Russia. If Russia has anything left to throw I'd expect Kyiv to be a more likely target than UK, France, Poland, etc. I'm sure Putin would love the Middle East to blow up tomorrow!

[clv101]

Been reading about the breakup of Yugoslavia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Breakup_of_Yugoslavia
Which left us with lots of independent states: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Macedonia, Montenegro, Serbia and Slovenia.

Similar fate could be in Russia's future - but due to their resources, NATO countries and China, maybe also India would want a significant role in shaping the outcome.

[BritDownUnder]

I don't think a collapse of Russia is on the cards just yet. Russians are still 105 million strong and about 75% of the total population of the Russian Federation but both the number and the percentage are falling steadily and that will make Russia more and more unstable. Note this is happening throughout the West too and will make all countries unstable - we see that in Southport and elsewhere. Most Russians live in European Russia and this could form a stable 'rump' Russia in the future with China getting the Asian bit and Muslims getting some borderlands.

The main strategy of the West should be one of attrition and this does seem to be happening. I think this incursion has merits but maybe Russia is adopting a Fabian strategy trading land for time for this incursion and could surround the Ukrainians and they end up with a siege like Mariupol. Better to wear down the Russian arsenal. It would be nice to knock out the long range bombers that they use to launch missile from afar as these aircraft are also a real threat to the UK, and indeed Australia. Would also be nice to knock a few holes in their submarine fleet while at anchor in ports distant to Ukraine.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't think a collapse of Russia is on the cards just yet. Russians are still 105 million strong and about 75% of the total population of the Russian Federation but both the number and the percentage are falling steadily and that will make Russia more and more unstable. Note this is happening throughout the West too and will make all countries unstable - we see that in Southport and elsewhere. Most Russians live in European Russia and this could form a stable 'rump' Russia in the future with China getting the Asian bit and Muslims getting some borderlands.

That stable rump is not even a third of the territory currently held by the Russian Federation, and I am not sure how stable even that would be if deprived of the other two thirds. Russia's economy won't work at all if it cannot fund its system of absolute corruption with vast natural resources. Cannon fodder included.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine are still trying to expand their control in Kirsk, but it is not clear if they are still ground. Reports are that Ukraine have been withdrawing troops from their eastern front to form part of the Kirsk attack, and so far most of the Russian troops being deployed are reserve units not actively fighting on the eastern front. This makes the Ukrainian attack seem driven in part by a desperate shortage of soldiers.

That said, the attack so far does seem to be going reasonably well, they have overrun a significant rail logistics hub and claim to have gained significant intelligence about the Russian rail network signalling and scheduling. The attacks against Russian airfields seem to be going well, and at least one Russian SU24 (34?) shot down. The Russians have been shown once again to be a poorly trained, poorly led and poorly equipped force. There are suggestions that the attack has drawn half the Russian daily supply of glide bomb attacks away from the east.

I suspect that Ukrainians will withdraw when Russia finally get their act together, as they do not have the numbers to hold it for long, but will try further probing attacks along the border in the coming months to make Russia deploy more troops for its defence

So far, the Russian response has been militarily disjointed. Putin has put the FSB in overall charge and called it a counter terrorist operation. The units sent in have been conscripts, Chechens, border guards, military poiice, and some army. Getting that lot to operate together under the command of the secret police will be a sight to see. Putin is clearly a man terrified of his own people, or at least the European Russian middle class. He dare not call a war a war. The longer he puts his own political survival ahead of letting the miltary fight the war on their own terms, the better Ukrainian chances become.

Of course, Ukraine has been suffering from the West's terror of Putin's escalation threats to the point they have been fighting with one hand tied behind their back. Now Ukraine realised that they were losing on those terms and have decided to break the West's embargos and ask forgiveness later. The West was as shocked as Putin by this attack, but the limp response from Putin may give the Western leaders enough heart to allow Ukraine to use the weapons it has been given without constraint on its military targeting. Or Ukraine may already be doing that without asking first.

[UndercoverElephant]

Confirmation this morning that British-supplied Challenger 2 tanks are operating inside Russia. Ha! Putin's head must be ready to explode at this point.

Where have the pro-Russian trolls gone?