788 Ukrainian marines are reported missing in action in Krynky, a village on the occupied east bank of the Dnipro river in Kherson region. An additional 262 fallen Ukrainian troops were evacuated and buried...
Recent reports from Suspilne and Ukrainska Pravda, citing military sources, suggest that Ukrainian troops withdrew from Krynky several weeks ago due to the village’s complete destruction. The Ukrainian General Staff has not officially commented on this withdrawal.
So, Ukraine lost a thousand troops in one area over a period of, say, six months according to Russia's chief propagandist in Powerswitch. Russia is losing that number every day! Russia lost tens of thousands of troops in the same area and hundreds of armoured vehicles and that was one reason that the incursion was carried out. The other reason was to divert Russian forces from other areas using a small number of troops which was successfully carried out. The above criticism is invalid as the purpose of the mission was achieved.
One of the reasons that the Ukrainians a suffering such high casualties is the the inability of the Ukrainians to strike back at Russian airfields due to restriction placed on NATO weaponry. Another reason is the lack of an air force capable of intercepting Russian aircraft launching large glide bombs. This again is due to the cowardice of certain NATO members in not supplying Ukraine in a timely fashion. If the F16 had been supplied when Ukraine first asked for them, Ukraine wouldn't be suffering many of the casualties that they now are.
Ukraine launches a ground attack into the Kirsk region of Russia, nominally using Russian nationals. This is the third such diversionary attack, and is already being criticised as a waste of resources whilst parts of the eastern front is really struggling. There are few obvious strategic targets near the area of invasion and it is unlikely to distract Russian forces for long before the attack runs out of steam. Surprise has of course allowed a few quick choice hits, taking down a couple of helicopters for example. The defending troops were ill equipped conscripts.
Ukraine obviously thinks that deploying a couple of hundreds troop to divert thousands in worth while. It will take thousands of Russian troops to stop and hold this incursion because of the lack of worthwhile training of most Russian troops. Most Russian troops get their training "on the job" but few last long enough to complete it. Russia doesn't see the point of training troops well because they don't last very long which is a virtuous circle as far as Ukraine is concerned.
There are a lot of different rumours about why Ukraine has opened the new front into Russian territory. Obviously, it is partly to embarrass Putin and his regime, and to provide something for Ukrainians to cheer about after 6 months of grinding slow retreat. The area attacked was defended by conscript troops, not volunteers or convicts, and these are the troops that Putin promised would be kept out of the war. So any killed or captured are a problem with his standing in the middle classes in Moscow or St Petersberg. Putin now has to chose between using the conscript troops in the local area for this new front, or bringing up reserves or withdrawing troops from the eastern front. Also, captured conscripts will be a bigger bargaining chip for POW exchanges than the cannon fodder troops.
Also, this will be a signal to the West that Ukraine still have some fight in them, and Trump in particular. If Trump wins and forces Ukraine to make terms with Putin, Ukraine wants some Russian territory to bargain with. They have already gained control over the gas pipeline metering station, and Some more extreme optimists think that the nuclear power station 20km further to the north would be an excellent propaganda coup, if very risky one. If troops could dig in at the station they would be hard to shift, and shutting down the station would impact local electricity supply in that part of Russia
Ralphw2 wrote: ↑08 Aug 2024, 22:10
Also, this will be a signal to the West that Ukraine still have some fight in them, and Trump in particular. If Trump wins and forces Ukraine to make terms with Putin, Ukraine wants some Russian territory to bargain with.
Trump can't win now. But if there is Russian territory anywhere that Ukraine can take then it should take it, yes.
EDIT: looks like they are 10km inside Russia and trying to take more territory. If so then this marks a new phase in the war, because presumably this is not a hit and run attack, but an attempt to actually take that territory and keep it. And once that rubicon has been crossed, there is no reason to hold back. They should take as much as they think they can hold.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
I think those Russian three and four axle military trucks are all wheel drive.
It would be interesting how the Ukrainians ambushed this convoy. Maybe a video from the other side will tell.
I was thinking this incursion was a waste of resources on the Ukrainians part but maybe not. I thought it was Russian military doctrine to nuke all invaders of Russian territory? Where is Dimitry Medvedev when you need him to screech on about nuclear devastation?
There are suggestions that Ukraine destroyed the Russian convoy(s?) with Himars artillery. At least 200 Russian casualties in that one strike. If true, this further erodes the red lines Russia and the US had declared on use of NATO provided weapons. Estimates are that Ukraine has used 1-2000 troops so far, and they have clearly made good ground for that size of attack force. There is a suggestion that Ukraine is using drones with communication electronics that is much harder to jam, and this has enabled advances with lower Ukrainian casualties. Russian POWs are numbered in the hundreds and between 150 and 350 sq kilometers have been overrun.
There is still talk of taking the RUssian nuclear plant but holding it with this size of force would be very risky. It will be interesting to see if Ukraine does a cut and run in a few days, or they try to consolidate and defend a chunk of (relatively unimportant) territory, close enough to put a major Russian city on the front line. That I suspect depends on how many units Putin pulls out of the eastern attack to punish this lightly armed but clearly well trained battalion.
This is a big deal for Russia, most of their Ukrainian based fighters (and casualties) are the paid 'volunteer' army. Not the conscripts. The conscripts, from middle classes, from Moscow and St Petersburg etc, have largely been kept out of the fighting, kept behind the lines, on the border etc. This action has brought those conscripts into harms way and it's not clear yet which people Russia are going to use against Ukraine in this region.
Ralphw2 wrote: ↑09 Aug 2024, 22:07
It will be interesting to see if Ukraine does a cut and run in a few days, or they try to consolidate and defend a chunk of (relatively unimportant) territory, close enough to put a major Russian city on the front line.
They should keep control of that gas pipeline metering station...
Or wreck it in such a manner that Putin won't be able to use it for gas exports for the foreseeable future.
Ralphw2 wrote: ↑09 Aug 2024, 22:07
There is still talk of taking the RUssian nuclear plant but holding it with this size of force would be very risky.
Feel more than a bit queezy about attacking nuclear plants...
Although it would be an excellent bargaining chip for the return of the one at Zaporizhzhia...
Maybe that's the plan ?
"Ukrainian troops now 30 Km into russia", Moscow admits. A cynic might suspect that the actual Ukrainian gains are in fact greater than russia admits. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm08rv5m0o
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
adam2 wrote: ↑11 Aug 2024, 17:03
"Ukrainian troops now 30 Km into russia", Moscow admits. A cynic might suspect that the actual Ukrainian gains are in fact greater than russia admits. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/crkm08rv5m0o
Maybe not surprising given what happened last year. Looks like the Ukrainians have again outwitted the Russians with a surprise attack.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
The Russian bloggers are getting close to panic with the progress of Ukraine into Kirsk region. They are reporting that the Russian units being rushed into the defence are little more than military police and border guards, and reserves are being moved up from the southern and eastern front, which is likely to stall the main Russian attacks in the coming days and weeks.
This is just bloggers, not military experts, and they likely to over react to bad news., it does seem that UKraine is making steady progress on this new front and the Russians have been found to have had no real preparations in anticipation of such an attack, and the Russian response is typically chaotic. Putin is allowed to use conscripts in this front because they are defending Russia from an invading army, but they are being killed and captured in significant numbers and the news will be filtering back to Moscow mothers and wives .
Some bloggers are even suggesting this is just a diversionary attack, and Ukraine may have a second front planned to open up in the coming days. I think this is very unlikely. The logical approach would be to use the mobility they currently have to maximize gains and keep going as long as Russia is unable to bring in strong defences troops then dig in on to hold what they have gained already.
All the Russian useful idiots on this forum seem to have taken the weekend off?
I still think this is not a good idea unless it forces a major Russian deployment away from Ukrainian territory. However if Ukraine can cause significant damage the Russian forces and infrastructure then it might be worth it. A sort of modern day Chevauchée as used in the 100 years war. Maybe the Ukrainians can steal a few washing machines in return as well as extensive mining of the occupied territory and booby trapping as they withdraw.
Ralphw2 wrote: ↑11 Aug 2024, 23:18
This is just bloggers, not military experts, and they likely to over react to bad news., it does seem that UKraine is making steady progress on this new front and the Russians have been found to have had no real preparations in anticipation of such an attack, and the Russian response is typically chaotic. Putin is allowed to use conscripts in this front because they are defending Russia from an invading army, but they are being killed and captured in significant numbers and the news will be filtering back to Moscow mothers and wives.
Yes. The problem is that they aren't actually interested in fighting. They don't "own" this war, and the political deal inside Russia was that they would be kept out of front line fighting. If they are up against battle-hardened professional Ukrainian soldiers then the result is fairly predictable -- they will surrender at the first opportunity. If that's what is actually happening then Ukraine could potentially take a significant chunk of territory quickly and with relatively light cost.
Why hasn't this happened before now? Clearly the Russians believed their threats to go nuclear if Russia's territory was attacked was taken seriously, but it looks like Ukraine has called their bluff. That changes the whole dynamic of the war, because it means Ukraine could attack anywhere from the new front to the Belarussian border, and there is also now no restriction on where Ukraine can use weapons.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
