General Election 2024

[clv101]

Galloway lost to Labour, suggesting Gaza isn't losing Labour a huge amount?

[clv101]

Turnout looks extremely low, possibly record low. Tory voters stayed home? Voter ID? Late postal votes? Result a foregone conclusion?

[clv101]

Early results suggest Reform might not get all 13 seats predicted by exit poll

Seems Reform have failed to pick up 4 of those 13 already. Exit poll well off.

[Ralphw2]

Now forecast that Reform will only get 4, Tories over 150.

Not quite the total collapse the polls suggested.

I think a lot of labour voters didn't bother voting.

At least one independent seat won from Labour over Gaza

This election was lost by the Tories, not won by labour. Their share of the vote has barely changed

The Reform vote is largely an anti Tory vote, building on the old Ukip/BNP core extreme right vote. Farage will be ignored in parliament, and Reform voters will largely return to the Tories at the next election.

[clv101]

Now forecast that Reform will only get 4, Tories over 150.

Tice makes it 4. How long before Tice and Farage fall out?

[clv101]

my expectation that, Louth and Horncastle will be Tory, I grew up they, visit regularly, I know the area and people and they aren't about to return Labour - yet this poll paints them red.

Can't wait to find out if I'm right!

Tories keep Louth and Horncastle with a healthy majority.

[clv101]

Seems Corbyn will become Father of the House - longest continuous member, and Abbot Mother of the House.

[Ralphw2]

Starmer now pm

Vote shares approx

Tories 22

Reform 15

LD 10

Greens 7

Pro Gaza independent s may get more seats that reform

[Mark]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

That's my hunch too...
Labour 40%; Tory 25%; Others 35%
Tories to get around 150 seats, but will regroup before the next election.

Not far off - good win for Labour, but the Tories don't get totally destroyed that easily...

[BritDownUnder]

Conservatives lost to Reform. I hope they lose a bit more over the coming years.

Will be nice to see the SNP get another drubbing in the Scottish Parliament and their mindless decision to elect a Gaza obsessed First Minister.

Of course the next big election for me now is to see the Australian Labor Party get kicked out and nuclear power come to Australia, finally.

[clv101]

Worst Tory result ever. Best LibDem result in a century (largely at Tory's expence). In England & Wales, Labour's vote is largely flat - SNP collapse in Scotland has helped Labour a lot.

Labour did't 'win' this election, it was handed to them.

[UndercoverElephant]

Early results suggest Reform might not get all 13 seats predicted by exit poll

Seems Reform have failed to pick up 4 of those 13 already. Exit poll well off.

Reform are probably better off with a smaller number of higher quality MPs than a higher number of more dubious ones. Their bridgehead is secure.

[UndercoverElephant]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

That's my hunch too...
Labour 40%; Tory 25%; Others 35%
Tories to get around 150 seats, but will regroup before the next election.

Not far off - good win for Labour, but the Tories don't get totally destroyed that easily...

Not in terms of numbers it seems. But if you ask what their path back to power is, don't expect any easy answers.

[clv101]

Labour's total number of votes and their vote share is looking really poor.
Their majority isn't representative of their public support - it's going to be tough five years for them!

[UndercoverElephant]

Labour's total number of votes and their vote share is looking really poor.
Their majority isn't representative of their public support - it's going to be tough five years for them!

Beginning of the end of FPTP, in my very drunken opinion.