General Election 2024

[UndercoverElephant]

Vince Cable on why this might be the end of the Tories, 100 years after another election brought the end (of power) for the old Liberal Party.

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpoli ... bout-2024/

[Ralphw2]

Voted, tactically. For me, the election is over.

[clv101]

For reference, here's a summary of the big polls:

Election24_polls.jpg (237.95 KiB) Viewed 182 times

[clv101]

Need more political music: https://x.com/kittycat542/status/180883 ... 9FY9Q&s=19

[UndercoverElephant]

I'm clockwatching now.

New Statesman piece examining the final polls and previewing the exit poll: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sOmePa-FXho

[Potemkin Villager]

The lukewarm enthusiasm for Newer Labour will play out in various ways. For what it's worth I have a hunch they will not do as well in Scotland as expected. The SNP may well hold on to many of their seats. The beer is in the fridge and a bottle of Powers awaits opening for when the polls close. Will occasionally flick on to Great British News to marvel at the 'pinions of their prize commentators and guests. Hoping the Portillo moments are frequent and deservedly excruciating. Even then they won't get it.

It's beginning to feel a bit like 1997 again only different - ye gods was that 27 years ago!

Final Result 1997 : Labour has a majority of 179
Final Vote in seats (change in brackets)

Conservative 165 (-178)
Labour 419 (+146)
Liberal Democrat 46 (+28)
SNP 6 (+3)
PC 4 (no change)
Ind 1 (+1)
UUP 10 (+1)
DUP 2 (-2)
SDLP 3 (-1)
SF 2 (+2)
UKU 1 (+1)

Not much will get done around here tomorrow......

[UndercoverElephant]

It's beginning to feel a bit like 1997 again only different - ye gods was that 27 years ago!

Unless the polls are horribly wrong, it's bigger than 1997. It may be that when historians write about the decline and fall of the Conservative and Unionist Party they cite 1997 as the beginning of the Great Tory Schism over Europe and immigration, but 2024 as the pivotal moment when it all completely fell apart.

[clv101]

410 and 131 are both respectively lower and higher than all the big polls - Tories *always* outperform the polls on the day.

[Ralphw2]

Do the exit polls give an indication of the percentages each party will get in total?

Farage will be happy with 13 seats,

SNP predicted to be nearly wiped out.

On these numbers my constituency is likely to remain Tory, but the LD have been targeting it heavily

[UndercoverElephant]

410 and 131 are both respectively lower and higher than all the big polls - Tories *always* outperform the polls on the day.

Not by much, and it is only an exit poll. Could be 30 seats out for both Labour and tory.

Reform on 13 is the eye-catcher for me. That number could be quite a lot out too, because it implies there are probably a lot of seats which will be won with a relatively small margin. Could be a lot of recounts in those seats.

Do the exit polls give an indication of the percentages each party will get in total?

They could presumably calculate that figure, but it is not usually given.

[BritDownUnder]

I hope Reform get as many seats as possible and Labour and the SNP get as few as possible.

Don't forget the reality though. Every promise will be delivered on borrowed money. So long as there is a bleeding deficit this will be the case.

As much as I would like the see the sneering arrogant Conservatives get punished, with competent leadership they are the least worst, but I am willing to give Reform a chance.

[clv101]

There'll be a lot of very close results tonight, which must add more uncertainty to the exit poll than usual.

If Reform do get 13 (on a lower vote share than LD get 60+), that's a huge deal. Reform will be a major voice, and there'll be millions of people looking to abandon FPTP.

Off to bed now, back in a few hours.

[Ralphw2]

Early results suggest Reform might not get all 13 seats predicted by exit poll

Corbyn may have won his seat from Labour

Greens certain to win Bristol central

[Mark]

Early results suggest Reform might not get all 13 seats predicted by exit poll

LDs will probably get many more seats, but suspect well be hearing a lot more from Reform in the next 5yrs...

[UndercoverElephant]

Early results suggest Reform might not get all 13 seats predicted by exit poll

Early results make very clear that Reform are already the main opposition to Labour across the whole of northern England.