General Election 2024

[UndercoverElephant]

If the LibDems are only say, 10 seats short of the Tories, are they allowed to form a coalition with say, the SNP to become the official opposition? Or if only 1 or 2 seats short, with the Greens?

I saw this post and wondered whether it was you, but having read a few pages into the post history it looks unlikely!

https://www.reddit.com/r/ukpolitics/com ... _possible/

I know that Coalition Governments are possible, usually with the Lib-Dem as the junior party. But, assuming the Tories come 2nd in the election, but with less seats that the Lib-Dems, Green party and maybe the SNP combined, could these parties form an "Opposition Coalition" to form the Opposition, rather than the Tories?

[clv101]

There is talk that he stays in place long enough to change the system of electing the next leader, to remove the membership from the process. Should be a good way to lose half their members who are still left.

Clear the current system doesn't work well - I'd suggest the Tory party either needs to reduce the role of the members in selecting the leader (and potentially PM), or increase the membership 10-fold to make it more broadly representative of the political right.

[UndercoverElephant]

There is talk that he stays in place long enough to change the system of electing the next leader, to remove the membership from the process. Should be a good way to lose half their members who are still left.

Clear the current system doesn't work well - I'd suggest the Tory party either needs to reduce the role of the members in selecting the leader (and potentially PM), or increase the membership 10-fold to make it more broadly representative of the political right.

This is true, but it is likely to result in serious problems for the remains of the party after the election. The problem is that the membership will surely want the party to move to the right, but the new intake of MPs, many of which have been carefully chosen by the leadership, will probably want to move in the other direction. The risk is that they lose even more members to Reform.

[clv101]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

[Mark]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

That's my hunch too...
Labour 40%; Tory 25%; Others 35%
Tories to get around 150 seats, but will regroup before the next election.

[UndercoverElephant]

Three new polls today, each with the Tories on 24% and the Labour lead down to 15%. This is exactly the kind of move I expected in the final few days.

I still don't trust them. I don't trust that these are any more accurate than any of the others. We've had runs of three polls like this before in the past three weeks, and they turned out to be statistical blips. Like no previous election, I am not going to be convinced by anything apart from the actual result.

[clv101]

Yet another poll just dropped, it's a big on with 20,000 people:
https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com ... july-2024/

Redfield & Wilton Strategies’ final national Westminster Voting Intention poll before the General Election on Thursday finds the Labour Party leading by 19%, four points less than in our previous poll released last Thursday.

Labour’s national lead is below 20% in our polling for the first time since 10 March. Labour’s vote share of 41% ties their lowest in our polling since Boris Johnson was Prime Minister (having been 41% only once, on 7 May 2023, and never lower since he was replaced by Liz Truss).

The Conservatives (22%) meanwhile achieve their highest vote share in our Westminster Voting Intention poll since 27 May (our first poll after the election was called, in which they had 23%).

Our poll was conducted amongst an extra-large sample of 20,000 voters across Great Britain from Friday 28 June to Monday 2 July, with additional intra-regional weightings.

Altogether, the full numbers (with changes from 26-27 June in parenthesis) are as follows:

Labour 41% (-1)
Conservative 22% (+3)
Reform UK 16% (-2)
Liberal Democrat 10% (-1)
Green 6% (+1)
Scottish National Party 3% (–)
Other 2% (–)

[UndercoverElephant]

This might actually have the effect of mobilising potential Labour voters who otherwise might not have bothered, or were planning on voting for smaller parties because they thought it was all over. Certainly gives Labour justification for appealing to such voters tomorrow.

[UndercoverElephant]

Final Survation MRP: Labour majority of 318.

https://www.survation.com/survation-mrp ... n-in-1997/

With two days until polls open, Survation predict that Labour will win the 2024 general election with 484 out of a total 650 seats. The Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are in a close race to form the official opposition.

[UndercoverElephant]

Excellent article:

https://archive.is/juypk

Neither Labour nor the Tories will get many votes
The combined 2024 vote share of the two main parties will be the lowest ever. That makes a Labour second term uncertain
By Peter Kellner

[Default0ptions]

It’s obvious to me that very few people actually care about this whole farce to be bothered to get out of bed and vote at all.

It’s all words. The world will be in just the same trouble but significantly worse next time we vote

We should just let all these politicos go and play with themselves out of sight I a tent somewhere and let the world turn on without them.

[Ralphw2]

That Survation poll has the LD within the flap of a butterfly's wings of becoming the official opposition. Much as I would like to, I don't believe it.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't believe it.

I don't believe any of it. Only way I can stay sane right now. There is so much at stake. In one sense it makes little difference, because we all know Starmer is going to be Prime Minister on Friday, with a majority big enough to do pretty much everything he's got planned. But the difference between the tories winning 150 seats and winning 75 seats is potentially enormous in terms of setting the context for the subsequent election. I think if the they don't make it into triple figures then it might be a fatal blow, and if the LDs become the official opposition then it certainly will be.

[clv101]

Agreed. The interesting/important thing really isn't if Labour's majority is 100, 150 or 200. What matters is if the Tories fall below 100, or are beaten to 2nd place and whether Reform gets 2 seats or 15.

[Potemkin Villager]

Must be desperate wheeling Borage out too rally the faithful with the usual load of old bollox.

All the fuss over Starmer's family Friday nights will scarcely rank as an "eats babies" ploy!