General Election 2024

[clv101]

If the LibDems are only say, 10 seats short of the Tories, are they allowed to form a coalition with say, the SNP to become the official opposition? Or if only 1 or 2 seats short, with the Greens?

[UndercoverElephant]

If the LibDems are only say, 10 seats short of the Tories, are they allowed to form a coalition with say, the SNP to become the official opposition? Or if only 1 or 2 seats short, with the Greens?

No. At least not according to convention, and we have no written constitution. It is hard to see how it would work anyway -- the tories and SNP have fundamentally incompatible positions on numerous topics, and the same applies to all the other parties. Coalitions aren't easy to put together, and that difficult task is only worthwhile if you get to implement some of the things you want. Without power it just isn't worth making those compromises. Look at the price the libdems paid for going into coalition with the tories -- why do that in opposition, where the one advantage you've got is that you can say whatever you want to because you don't have any actual power? So you get to ask an extra question once a week at PMQ's? Not worth it.

[UndercoverElephant]

Aggregator comparing the results of all the different MRP polls:

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

[UndercoverElephant]

Poll for GBNews. Might be biased...

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Twee ... 7727269369

Labour 40% (+5)
Reform 21% (-3)
Conservatives 15% (-)
Lib Dems 9% (-3)
Greens 9% (+1)

People Polling/GB News
Fieldwork June 25-26

And one for the Express:

https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Twee ... 7871475045

BREAKING: New poll suggests past week hasn't dented Reform UK's popularity.

Lead over the Tories has INCREASED to three points.

Lab: 38%
Ref: 21%
Con: 18%
LD: 11%

https://www.express.co.uk/news/politics ... l-election

[UndercoverElephant]

https://x.com/Survation/status/1806742442429088203

NEW: Penultimate MRP Update.

Labour on Course to Win 470 Seats and Become the Largest Party in Scotland.

Probabilistic seat count:

LAB 470
CON 85
LD 56
SNP 12
RFM 4
PC 3
GRN 2

23,364 interviews conducted online and on the telephone
Fwk 15th - 27th June

[clv101]

Don't like the detail, they have Carmarthen as Labour 28.5%, ahead of Con 24.1 and Plaid on 21.3%. In my opinion, Plaid are going to win, not come third! They give Louth & Horncastle to Con, but Labour only 0.9% behind! IMO, this is a *safe* Con seat.

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't even know how you can form a personal opinion on details like that. I know I can't. Too many unknowns.

This part of their article stands out:

One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points. In these seats, Labour leads in 65, the Conservatives in 47, and the Liberal Democrats in 10. Very small swings between now and the 4th July could have a dramatic influence on each party’s seat count.

We have a combination of an unprecedented set of circumstances and a large proportion of seats where the winning margin is likely to be less than the margin of error of most polls. I am not even going to believe the exit poll. In 1997 it over-estimated Labour's eventual vote share by 4%. If it does so again this time then even a projection based on the exit poll could be significantly wrong. When we've got 10 tory victories declared, then maybe I'll start to believe the final result projections, but that might not happen until 3am.

[Potemkin Villager]

Lots of stuff swishing about the interweb about 72 members of Islington North CLP
resigning to support Corbyn as an independent . Something else for Starmer to think about.
I guess they decided to jump before they were purged.

[UndercoverElephant]

Lots of stuff swishing about the interweb about 72 members of Islington North CLP
resigning to support Corbyn as an independent . Something else for Starmer to think about.
I guess they decided to jump before they were purged.

Storm in a teacup. Unlike England's football team, Starmer doesn't need to worry much about his left flank. Although maybe that comes later.

[clv101]

One third of seats are currently decided by fewer than 10 points, and 132 are decided by fewer than 5 points.

The Labour vote is soft, very thinly (efficiently) distributed, which delivers seats - but I'm expecting a Tory bounce on election day, like always. And I'm expecting low turnout. I'm certainly not expecting the Labour majority to be in 250-300 range like most of these big polls are suggesting.

Personally I'm not hearing enthusiasm for Labour, you simply don't win stonking great big, Blair beating majorities without enthusiasm. I personally know plenty of past Labour voters, even a past Labour campaigner, who aren't supporting Starmer. Due to their stance on Gaza, due to 3rd child benefit, due to collapse of past pledges around nationalisation... Very hard to find someone genuinely pleased with Labour's offering. Either not voting or going Plaid here, or Green outside Wales.

[Ralphw2]

Aggregator comparing the results of all the different MRP polls:

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

For my constituency the projections are
3 labour
4 Tory
6 liberal

Does that make it the most unpredictable seat in the election?

[UndercoverElephant]

Aggregator comparing the results of all the different MRP polls:

https://inglesp.github.io/apogee/

For my constituency the projections are
3 labour
4 Tory
6 liberal

Does that make it the most unpredictable seat in the election?

I don't know, but I am expecting the unexpected!

[UndercoverElephant]

Personally I'm not hearing enthusiasm for Labour, you simply don't win stonking great big, Blair beating majorities without enthusiasm.

You do if the system is FPTP and the right wing vote is split in half.

I personally know plenty of past Labour voters, even a past Labour campaigner, who aren't supporting Starmer.

That's like arguing climate change isn't real because you haven't seen the sun much this Spring. We know Labour's support is soft, and we know that Starmer is heading for a smaller vote share than Corbyn, but we also know that at least 10% of the electorate will switch from Tory to Reform, and maybe 15%. This is not 1997. It's not like any previous election in British history.

[UndercoverElephant]

New Farage video claiming the MSM and the establishment are trying to stitch him up:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=90vvZ3ybj9I&t=3s

I think he's probably right. I also think it is possible that Reform are going to do considerably better than most people expect them to, in terms of both vote share and seats. The is a ring of truth to much of what he says, and I think that "cuts through".

[Ralphw2]

Maybe the media have been looking for dirt on Reform. Because it was obvious that they would find it. The nature of right wing populist startup parties is that they attract the same subset of human nature wherever and whenever and by whoever they are formed. It is simply part of the broad spectrum of the human character.

The media are doing their job, for once.