Ukraine Watch...

[Default0ptions]

I’m so sorry to hear of your loss Ralph.

[Default0ptions]

“Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has said in fresh interview that despite leading Western countries seeking the defeat of Russia in Ukraine, the situation remains "hopeless" for achieving this and it will only lead to greater death and destruction. He described that in the scenario the West actually does eventually succeed, the immense cost in blood and treasure would not be worth it.

"The situation looks like the Western world wants to defeat Russia with the help of Germany under the leadership of the United States," the prime minister said, as translated in TASS. "I think it is hopeless. And even if we succeed, which is not at all realistic, we will have to pay such a high price that it will not be worth it."

“Orban also addressed the origins of the conflict, related to NATO expansion up to Russia's doorstep. Over a week ago President Putin named as one of his conditions for ceasefire that Kiev give up aspirations to join the Western military alliance.

"In the end, the question is whether Ukraine will become a NATO member or not. This war is about Sevastopol, where there will be a NATO flag or a Russian flag at the exit to the Black Sea. The Russians say that the Russian flag is flying there now, and they don't want to change it to a NATO flag, and they don't want to border NATO countries," the Hungarian leader said.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... less-orban

[Ralphw2]

It is a truism that all military strategy plans last until the day the guns start firing.

The technology of spotter drones and pinpoint accurate long range artillery has made the war in UKraine one that heavily favours the defenders , leading to more or less trench warfare or street to street fighting. No big force can form up without being spotted by the enemy and decimated by artillery even before it reaches the front lines.

That means with the current technology being employed each side can just about hold the ground it has already taken.

However military technology goes into evolution overdrive in wars. The war tactics have changed dramatically on both sides in the last two years, and are continuing to change. Sooner or later one side or the other will develop technology which again favours attack over defence, and the stalemate will be broken, or at least battered.

Ukraine has recently managed to start attacking Russian drones with its own drones. I dont personally think this will be a war winning tactic, but it does show the level of innovation being tried. Russia is many times larger than Ukraine, but recently Ukraine has been turning this to their advantage by using long range drones to attack military and infrastructure targets up to a thousand kilometers from the front lines, their huge geographical spread making it impossible for Russia to defend them all, and systematically weakening Russia's strategic military and economic strength.

Of course Russia is attacking Ukrainian infrastructure, but it is more compact and more easily defended with the advanced SAM systems that the west has given them.
This war wont be won on the front lines, it will be won in the refineries , oil terminals, factories and ports far from the enemy.

[Default0ptions]

Things will turn out as they will, but I really don’t see anything realistically looking like a win for Ukraine in the future.

I’ll also go as far as to say that we will look back on this as yet another western failure that was obviously doomed from the get go.

And deeply, ridiculously flawed.

You think the EU can get involved on the ground Ralph?

Shall we just ask for a pause while we get ready?

“Europe needs a decade to build up arms stocks, says defence firm boss”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68273449

[invalid]

The technology of spotter drones and pinpoint accurate long range artillery has made the war in UKraine one that heavily favours the defenders , leading to more or less trench warfare or street to street fighting. No big force can form up without being spotted by the enemy and decimated by artillery even before it reaches the front lines.

That doesn't seem to have stopped Ukraine urgently redeploying and massing it's forces in the Kharkov área, and throwing their recent conscripts straight into battle. The FAB 3000 is getting more accurate every day.

[Default0ptions]

The technology of spotter drones and pinpoint accurate long range artillery has made the war in UKraine one that heavily favours the defenders , leading to more or less trench warfare or street to street fighting. No big force can form up without being spotted by the enemy and decimated by artillery even before it reaches the front lines.

That doesn't seem to have stopped Ukraine urgently redeploying and massing it's forces in the Kharkov área, and throwing their recent conscripts straight into battle. The FAB 3000 is getting more accurate every day.

Ralph, no matter how much you want it to happen, the Ukraine is pretty much done and dusted unless we’re stupid enough to escalate to NATO troops and weapons on the ground.

You have a family, Ralph. Do you really want things to end up like that?

[Ralphw2]

Islamic terrorists have killed at least 19 people, mostly police and a priest, in Dagestan. A church and a synagogue were set on fire.

Reports indicate this was a well planned military style set of attacks. It is not clear if the conscription of Russian Muslims to fight in Ukraine is part of the motivation for the attacks, or if further attacks are planned. Clearly the intention was to increase religious conflict in the area

[Default0ptions]

“Both ATACMS variants have cluster warheads, prohibited by the international Convention on Cluster Munitions — which the US declined to sign.”

Latest ATACMS strikes in the Ukraine war.

“Washington’s involvement in the Ukrainian missile strike on Sevastopol is undeniable, given that it was conducted with the US-made ATACMS missiles programmed by American specialists, while a US RQ-4 Global Hawk reconnaissance drone was operating near Crimea that day, Russia’s Foreign Ministry stated on June 24. “The US is very complicit in this,”

The risk here is runaway escalation.

Both the US and Russia are nuclear powers and both will use them if they escalate all the way.

Is the Ukraine worth a nuclear exchange?

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=2q9Al0Pw0 ... ZpZQ%3D%3D

https://johnhelmer.net/between-the-krem ... s-attacks/

No matter who is right or wrong in this - it’s serious and it’s happening.

Are you a willing participant in this?

[kenneal - lagger]

The war to free Ukraine should go on as long as the Ukrainians want it to. It is their country which has been illegally invaded and it is Ukrainian civilians as well as troops who are being murdered by Russians. So we should give them all the support that they need until they tell us that things are done.

As for the reasons for the war, the change of regime in Ukraine and the subsequent war on corruption are the reason why Putin illegally sent the troops in. He couldn't have a relatively rich and successful, democratic and corruption free nation on his doorstep especially one with, in many cases, very close family relationships across the border. Imagine the embarrassment that that would cause to Putin and his regime of thieves.

All the chat about NATO and feeling militarily threatened is a load of hogwash and lies. The greatest threat was the emerging civil success of the new regime. That would have been deadly to Putin.

[Default0ptions]

I absolutely agree that the war in Ukraine should be their business and continue as long as they want it to.

Americans firing cluster bombs into Russia from Ukrainian territory is a whole other issue though.

Would America tolerate Russian supplied and targeted cluster bombs fired into US territory from Mexico - for example?

It’s a local turf war.

Why make it a nuclear Armageddon?

How many Americans can even find Donetsk on a map?

Do you want to die for a farcical local turf war on the Russian border?

[Default0ptions]

If Crimea and the Russian naval base in Sevastopol is too bad for the world to tolerate - we have big problems with Gibraltar - in an even more strategic position.

“Gibraltar, a British Overseas Territory, located at the southern tip of the Iberian Peninsula, is the subject of a territorial claim by Spain. It was captured in 1704 during the War of the Spanish Succession (1701–1714).”

Should we ask the Americans to fire some cluster bombs into Spain?

Would that be ‘right’

The risk in all this is that what seems good for the goose is also good for the gander.

Ukraine is Ukraine’s business. Or do you think we can continue to escalate bit by bit with no possible consequences?

And why do we think it’s our business at all?

Reductio ad absurdum I know - but the question is still unanswered.

Would America tolerate this level of aggression from Russia on American Borders?

Christy Moore, Ride on

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7MJRmA99k ... ByaWRlIG9u

[Default0ptions]

“Four Ukraine Questions Biden Should Have To Answer In The First Presidential Debate”

https://www.zerohedge.com/political/fou ... ial-debate

“You Knew, So Why Did You Do It?

Biden was aware of warnings from people who knew best that encouraging NATO expansion east was provocative and a dangerous crossing of Russia’s reddest of red lines. He knew because he knew the people who gave the warnings. Robert Gates said that “trying to bring Georgia and Ukraine into NATO was truly overreaching” and that it was “recklessly ignoring what the Russians considered their own vital national interests.” Gates was Secretary of Defense when Biden was vice president and busily midwifing the coup in Ukraine. William Burns said, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite” and warned that, if NATO expanded to Ukraine, “There could be no doubt that Putin would fight back hard.” Burns is the former ambassador to Russia and currently Biden’s Director of the CIA.”

[Default0ptions]

Ken: “All the chat about NATO and feeling militarily threatened is a load of hogwash and lies.”

How do you think America would react if Russia was supplying weapons and targeting data for strikes deep within US territory from Mexico?

Would you say that the inevitable US reaction to that would be “Hogwash and lies”?

[Default0ptions]

All the chat about NATO and feeling militarily threatened is a load of hogwash and lies.

How do you think America would react if Russia was supplying weapons and targeting data for strikes deep within US territory from Mexico?

Would you say that the inevitable US reaction to that would be “Hogwash and lies”?

[Vortex2]

I haven't visited this site for quite a while.
I'm surprised that people are still discussing the Ukraine situation in an academic manner.
If I didn't live just 1.5 miles from one of the UK's primary nuclear targets, I would be stockpiling food, water etc.
Irrespective of the history etc, we now have the West pushing and pushing and pushing Russia.
They will NOT give in : they will use (initially) tactical nuclear weapons when they feel that they are about to lose.
The US is (initially) fine - they can afford to be belligerent as they are an ocean away.
We have now entered the 'vortex of war' and are probably totally stuffed.
Don't believe that politicians and generals can screw up, despite having access to total power, plenty of money etc?
Just take a look at the Conservatives.
Politicians on all sides saw political and economic advantage in supporting the Ukraine 'war' - which was in fact a poxy regional conflict.
Now of course it has gone tits up, but they believe they can fix it by throwing more US hardware - and soon US bodies into the fire.
Morons to the left of me, morons, to the right of me ...