General Election 2024

What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?

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UndercoverElephant
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Re: General Election 2024

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Labour candidate in Clacton exposed as an anti-white racist:

https://archive.is/R5Xtx
Farage asks why his Labour opponent likes ‘drinking the tears of white people’

The Reform UK leader’s team has unearthed a now deleted social media post from 2019 by Labour’s Clacton candidate Javon Owusu-Nepaul agreeing with a US student’s post about racism.
The original post read: “Going into 2020 I’m going to continue to be vocal about how to tackle racism and the fact I drink white man tears on a regular basis.”

Mr Nepaul replied to the post saying: “My favourite drink”.
According to official statistics, the Clacton constituency in Essex has one of the highest white populations in the UK, with 93 percent registered as white British.
This compares to a UK national average of 82 percent white and 89 percent in the county of Essex.
Mr Farage said: “If Starmer thinks that the race in Clacton is a pantomime, perhaps he should look no further than his own candidate.”
He added: “I’m shocked that this man is an official candidate for a Labour Party that says it has changed”
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Mark
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Re: General Election 2024

Post by Mark »

Suspect it's going to be 8th time lucky for Farage in Clacton...

Electoral Calculus giving him a healthy chance:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton

Clacton - RFM 67%; LAB 21%; CON 12%

Looks like Tories would have to vote Labour to stop him - can't see enough doing that...
Imagine every door in the town is being battered down by politicians - then they won't see one for 5yrs :D
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Re: General Election 2024

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https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 62311.html
Nigel Farage’s Reform party has overtaken the Conservatives in a poll for the first time.

The Tories were pushed into third in the survey, by pollsters YouGov.

The findings will come as a blow to Rishi Sunak and risks triggering panic among many Tory MPs.

The poll results were released minutes before Mr Farage was due to take part in a 7-way debate on ITV, with Conservative cabinet minister Penny Mordaunt, among others.

As the TV showdown opened he told millions of viewers “we are now the opposition to Labour”.

The poll found support for Reform had increased by two points to 19 per cent while the Tories were unchanged on 18 per cent.

Labour was still in the lead on 37, while the Liberal Democrats were down one point at 14 per cent, according to the survey for The Times.

Earlier Mr Farage suggested the Conservative Party “may well be dead, this may well be the end of their journey”.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: General Election 2024

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Mark wrote: 13 Jun 2024, 19:33 Suspect it's going to be 8th time lucky for Farage in Clacton...

Electoral Calculus giving him a healthy chance:
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/fcg ... at=Clacton

Clacton - RFM 67%; LAB 21%; CON 12%

Looks like Tories would have to vote Labour to stop him - can't see enough doing that...
Imagine every door in the town is being battered down by politicians - then they won't see one for 5yrs :D
I have a hunch that the polls are underestimating Reform's vote. I suspect the models are broken anyway, because the current situation is so far removed from any previous election, but from my perspective Farage is nothing short of the star of the show right now. I don't agree with everything he says, but he keeps talking about overpopulation and nobody else - absolutely nobody in the world of politics (and especially not the immigration-loving so-called "Greens") - is willing to do so. Today he also spoke about wealth inequality and proposed taking everybody earning under 20K out of income tax altogether. He's actually speaking the truth, at least as he understands it -- important truths. When other politicians accuse him of "dog whistles" then they aren't just attacking him -- they are also dismissing those who agree with him as dogs. As people who just obey when he whistles, rather than individuals with minds of their own who actually agree with what he is saying. This has the power to motivate voters who usually don't bother to vote, and it is how Brexit happened and why so many people didn't see it coming.

I think it is still possible that Reform makes it into double figures of seats. All it needs is a few more polls giving the impression that Reform is pulling away from the tories and people are going to start thinking that they'd prefer Farage to be leading the opposition from the right rather than whichever new leader emerges from the wreckage of the tory party after this election. Momentum is crucial, and we still have three weeks to go.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Mark
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Re: General Election 2024

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Be careful what you wish for UE - once the cat is out of the bag, there's no knowing what might transpire
Not only are their politics at the far end of spectrum on race, they're also fully fledged climate deniers, funded by fossil fuel interests...

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party Has Accepted £2.3 Million from Fossil Fuel Interests, Climate Deniers, and Polluters Since 2019 Election:
https://www.desmog.com/2024/06/04/nigel ... -election/
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: General Election 2024

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Mark wrote: 13 Jun 2024, 23:24 Be careful what you wish for UE - once the cat is out of the bag, there's no knowing what might transpire
Not only are their politics at the far end of spectrum on race, they're also fully fledged climate deniers, funded by fossil fuel interests...

Nigel Farage’s Reform Party Has Accepted £2.3 Million from Fossil Fuel Interests, Climate Deniers, and Polluters Since 2019 Election:
https://www.desmog.com/2024/06/04/nigel ... -election/
I am well aware of what I am wishing for. I want a leader of the opposition who talks about overpopulation and dismisses woke nonsense without fear.

I have already explained why their position on climate change does not worry me: I genuinely believe that almost nothing currently being done to limit climate change is going to make any difference at all to the long-term total amount of fossil-fuel related climate change. People may not like that, because the consequences are extreme, but that doesn't stop it being true. So from my perspective Farage's position moves the political debate forwards while making little or no negative difference to the final (physical) outcome.

Nobody is offering what I actually want. Certainly not the Greens, who ought to be representing me. And Labour offers nothing apart from not being the tories. The person offering the most radical change at this election is Farage, not Starmer. And he has a track record of actually delivering real changes.

I am not sure why you are accusing them of racism? Is this based on anything actually said, or just an assumption?
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: General Election 2024

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Latest poll:
Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 39% (-7) CON: 19% (-1) RFM: 17% (+3) LDM: 10% (+2) via @PeoplePolling, 11-12 Jun (Changes with 16 May)
It is now clear that Reform is taking votes from Labour as well as from the Tories, maybe more votes. This makes the result of the election even more tricky to predict. A lot of people who voted for Brexit are going to be tempted by Farage, especially red wall types who now hate the tories for betraying them on immigration but are certain Labour are going to win whatever happens. Labour's position also becomes more tricky, because its manifesto was thoroughly uninspiring and it is now losing votes in both directions. What is for sure is that this is the most interesting general election I've ever watched, and I think things could shift very considerably before polling day, and in ways that a lot of people aren't expecting.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
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Mark
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Re: General Election 2024

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UndercoverElephant wrote: 13 Jun 2024, 23:44 I am well aware of what I am wishing for. I want a leader of the opposition who talks about overpopulation and dismisses woke nonsense without fear.
UKIP/Reform and half the Tories were the main agitators for Brexit, which I know you strongly support.
I predicted on here at the time that all Brexit would do is replace Poles/Romanians etc. with Nigerians/Indians/Pakistanis etc.
That's exactly what's happened - and a lot more on top - assume you're aware of the nett migration figures over the last 2 years (post Brexit) ?

If we agree that Brexit 'taking back control of our borders' has made things worse on immigration...
If we agree that the world (not just the UK) is overpopulated...
Given that Nigel Farage supports lifting the 2-child benefit cap and says Brits should be 'encouraged to have children'....
And that Nigel Farage already gets plenty of air time without being elected....

What actual change will him being in Parliament bring regarding overpopulation ?
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UndercoverElephant
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Re: General Election 2024

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Mark wrote: 14 Jun 2024, 08:09
UndercoverElephant wrote: 13 Jun 2024, 23:44 I am well aware of what I am wishing for. I want a leader of the opposition who talks about overpopulation and dismisses woke nonsense without fear.
UKIP/Reform and half the Tories were the main agitators for Brexit, which I know you strongly support.
I predicted on here at the time that all Brexit would do is replace Poles/Romanians etc. with Nigerians/Indians/Pakistanis etc.
That's exactly what's happened - and a lot more on top - assume you're aware of the nett migration figures over the last 2 years (post Brexit) ?
That is complete misrepresentation of what actually happened. As Farage keeps pointing out, every time somebody tries this fallacious argument, it wasn't Brexit that caused legal migration to quadruple. The Tories did that, as a matter of policy, even though they knew it was a gross betrayal of the people who voted for them in 2019 to "get brexit done". So your prediction was wrong.
If we agree that Brexit 'taking back control of our borders' has made things worse on immigration...
Only if you completely misrepresent what actually happened. You are ignoring what Farage actually stands for. He is NOT a tory. He is trying to destroy the tory party, for the exact betrayal you are falsely attributing to Brexit. What Brexit actually did was give back control over immigration to Westminster. Brexit did not compel the Tories to shit the bed on immigration. That's the whole point. If you don't understand this, then you don't understand the political earthquake that is about to happen.
If we agree that the world (not just the UK) is overpopulated...
Given that Nigel Farage supports lifting the 2-child benefit cap and says Brits should be 'encouraged to have children'....
And that Nigel Farage already gets plenty of air time without being elected....

What actual change will him being in Parliament bring regarding overpopulation ?
For a start the word "overpopulation" will become part of mainstream political debate. I have literally been banging on about this for 30 years, and for that entire time it has been getting harder and harder to get people to listen. Yes, Farage is saying we need to the native population to produce more children. Are you opposed to prioritising making it possible for the native population to actually be able to afford to have families?
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
RevdTess
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Re: General Election 2024

Post by RevdTess »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 13 Jun 2024, 23:44 I am well aware of what I am wishing for. I want a leader of the opposition who talks about overpopulation and dismisses woke nonsense without fear.
Farage is so effective at tearing into Tory incompetence it’s actually a delight to watch. Unfortunately I am very much reliant on the ‘woke nonsense’ brigade for protecting my own freedoms, so when he starts on the culture war stuff I go hide in the Green party bunker. It’s always seemed to me that for many on the right the ultimate enemy is ‘woke’ and stuff like Brexit and leaving ‘foreign courts’ is just a means to remove international legal protections for wokeness. The excuse is immigration, the real target is wokeness - which of course to me just means kindness, compassion and empathy for people whose lived experience is different to the mainstream. I do struggle to understand why some people are so vicious against wokeness. For me it just feels like being against a common human decency that makes life worth living. It’s mystifying.

I also worry that if Farage manages to consume the Tory party and start to benefit from FPTP then his passion for PR will evaporate as quickly as every other party that manages to form a govt under the present electoral system. It’s a shame that any party that wants to introduce PR first has to win under FPTP and then why would they need PR any more? Maybe some govt might consider reforming the Lords to make it elected by PR, but I can’t see how we have any route to PR for elections to the Commons except by some fluke of coalition of minor parties.

I do agree with UE that at this point whatever a politician believes about climate change is not going to make much difference to the reality. I’ve never put much hope in the world freely choosing to avoid or ban carbon energy. It seems to me we’re stuck on the carbon rollercoaster until someone invents scaleable, predictable, non-carbon energy production. Fission nukes seem a reasonable stopgap while CO2 and methane in the atmosphere is such a threat, but I don’t understand why tidal energy isn’t being deployed everywhere off our coasts. I have to assume the economics are rubbish or something.

Anyway, however strong the Labour win this time, it will always feel like a temporary reprieve. I can easily see Farage as the next PM after Starmer. What’s happening now feels like when the Brexit party stormed the EU elections - the same frustrations and anger are there only this time the target is the Tories for having delivered a broken Brexit and a broken country. When Farage says ‘Nothing works in this country’ he’s absolutely right, but his anti-wokeness utterly terrifies me.
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Re: General Election 2024

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UndercoverElephant wrote: 14 Jun 2024, 09:19 What Brexit actually did was give back control over immigration to Westminster. Brexit did not compel the Tories to shit the bed on immigration.
It gave back control over legal migration from the EU, but it lost control over illegal migration via the ‘small boats’. In leaving the EU we lost the right to send people straight back to France. In contrast, if any migrant leaves the UK for Ireland, we have to take them back because we still have FoM treaties with Ireland. Don’t think anyone quite saw that coming.

It does seem crazy to me how much immigration has gone up from non-EU countries. Given how antagonistic the Tories have been to immigration in general I struggle to understand why they’re blaming everything on the small boats when numbers coming from controllable routes are apparently so much higher. Maybe I just don’t understand the numbers, but I struggle to believe that the Tories wouldn’t halt immigration if they could.

Of coure, immigration seems essential in a nation with ever-increasing health and pension costs. Or you could bribe people to have more children, but the 2-child cap on benefits seems to go against that…
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Re: General Election 2024

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Unfortunately I am very much reliant on the ‘woke nonsense’ brigade for protecting my own freedoms,
Really? Are you man who believes they are a woman? We don't need woke attacks on reality in order protect any freedoms which are worth having.
It’s always seemed to me that for many on the right the ultimate enemy is ‘woke’ and stuff like Brexit and leaving ‘foreign courts’ is just a means to remove international legal protections for wokeness.
No! You are mixing things up which should not be mixed up. Foreign courts aren't protecting woke ideology. The issue of sovereignty is separate from the culture wars. Nobody is talking about removing existing legal protections. On the contrary, it is the woke ideologues who are trying to do that, by introducing new "protections", such as protecting trans people from the horrific consequence of people refusing to accept their delusions as objective reality.
The excuse is immigration, the real target is wokeness
No! These are two different issues. Both are targets for Reform. Immigration has two aspects -- one is cultural (especially resistance to the Islamification of Western societies), and the other is purely about numbers. Again, these two things should not be mixed up -- we need a Venn diagram.

Immigration/overpopulation is a massive problem, so is woke reality denial, but they are two completely different problems.
I also worry that if Farage manages to consume the Tory party and start to benefit from FPTP then his passion for PR will evaporate as quickly as every other party that manages to form a govt under the present electoral system.
No way. He is far too committed to PR. He would not betray his own support in that way. He's too adept a politician to make such a mistake.
I can easily see Farage as the next PM after Starmer.
Yes. That is now hoving into view as a real possibility.
It gave back control over legal migration from the EU, but it lost control over illegal migration via the ‘small boats’. In leaving the EU we lost the right to send people straight back to France.
We never sent anybody straight back to France.
Maybe I just don’t understand the numbers, but I struggle to believe that the Tories wouldn’t halt immigration if they could.
Immigration drives down wages and drives GDP up for no effort. Many tories are pro immigration. That is why Sunak failed to listen to people like Suella Braverman. This is the fundamental difference between Reform and the Tories. Reform's number one priority is immigration. The tories' number one priority is the very rich.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
RevdTess
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Re: General Election 2024

Post by RevdTess »

UndercoverElephant wrote: 14 Jun 2024, 10:15
Unfortunately I am very much reliant on the ‘woke nonsense’ brigade for protecting my own freedoms,
Really? Are you man who believes they are a woman? We don't need woke attacks on reality in order protect any freedoms which are worth having.
Well, as I said, I find this view incomprehensibly cruel and personally terrifying. Trans people (and there are trans men as well as trans women) are being attacked as reality-deniers and a physcial threat in the same way that gay men used to be accused of being a threat. The consequences of this are what we see in various countries where gay people are declared to not-exist (because homosexuality doesn’t exist) in the same way that trans people are not being declared to not-exist (because transness does not exist).

Trans people have always existed, just as homosexual people have always existed. Trans people are not a threat by virtue of being trans. Just because trans people want to live in society in a way that doesn’t correspond to their chromosomes doesn’t make them a threat. Being trans is not a sexual perversion.

For sure, there has never been a real consensus on the causes of transgenderedness. Back in the nineties most medics seemed to believe it was caused by a hormonal imbalance in the womb during pregnancy leading to brain structure developing in opposition to other sexual characteristics. Since there has been no way to ‘correct’ the brain side of the equation and convince trans people they’re not trans, the compassionate solution was to allow them to change the rest of their bodies to match, as best as they could. This has been successful for the vast majority of trans people. Regret levels are ridiculously low. After the 90s, gender specialists began to try to de-medicalise being trans, considering it a variation in human diversity rather than a medical issue to be fixed. This is what has ultimately led to self-id and men just declaring themselves women and vice versa with no medical assessment. I can understand why trans groups wanted to go this route, but I always thought it was a mistake because it makes it all about selfish personal choice and not a serious mental health condition that only has one realistic form of treatment.

Three decades ago, trans people were accommodated and viewed with compassion because even if they were living contrary to their chromosomal biology, it was accepted that this was necessary to avoid really serious negative mental health outcomes. Because trans women (to address them in particular) thought of themselves as women, looked like women (if they transitioned early enough) and lost all their masculine physical strength, they were never considered any sort of threat in women’s spaces. In contrast, trans women gained enormous protections from being able to use women’s spaces, because they were vulnerable to male violence in just the same way as other women - sometimes moreso because of the anger their ‘deception’ generated in some people.

I would personally want to revert to this earlier understanding of gender dysphoria where society takes a compassionate approach to allowing trans men and trans women to be accepted as they believe themselves to be, regardless of biological reality. It worked just fine for several decades.

I think the real problem for trans people has been the conflation of ‘transvestites’ and ‘transsexuals’. Back in the 90s and before, you had two completely separate groups of biological men who presented as women. One did it for the sexual thrill and were happy to go back to being male at work the next day, the others did it because they believed they were women and never wanted to go back. These have all been conflated now as ‘trans women’ apparently demanding the right to be treated however they want on any given day.

My view is that trans people, once diagnosed as such by medical professionals, should be allowed to transition and live their lives as men or women as they believe themselves to be. The main tension is the period of transition itself, when a trans woman continues to look like man, and a trans man continues to look like a woman. This is a horrifying period for any trans person, and only made worse by the constant threat of outing and violence against them, and political judgements that try to invalidate their experience and humiliate them at every turn. Admittedly, it is utterly creepy for a trans woman who looks completely male to demand access to a women’s refuge. Conversely, it is cruel and ridiculous to deny access to such spaces to a trans woman rape victim who transitioned 20 years ago in their teens and who has never had any sense of themselves as male.

No trans person or their allies are denying a biological reality. They are simply recognising that mental health is no respecter of biological reality, and sometimes an effective treatment involves a shared societal agreement to ignore biology. That used to be the happy consensus for several decades and I wish we could go back there. It’s true that the present situation has been caused largely by woke overreach trying to force everyone to deny the reality of their own eyes, but the pushback has been utterly horrific for trans people and has become a cause celebre for right-wingers everywhere who just love to find a weak enemy to unite against.

So yeah, when Farage jumps on the anti-trans bandwagon, I crap myself and run for the hills. It’s an absolute nightmare.
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Re: General Election 2024

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RevdTess wrote: 14 Jun 2024, 11:10
UndercoverElephant wrote: 14 Jun 2024, 10:15
Unfortunately I am very much reliant on the ‘woke nonsense’ brigade for protecting my own freedoms,
Really? Are you man who believes they are a woman? We don't need woke attacks on reality in order protect any freedoms which are worth having.
Well, as I said, I find this view incomprehensibly cruel and personally terrifying. Trans people (and there are trans men as well as trans women) are being attacked as reality-deniers and a physcial threat in the same way that gay men used to be accused of being a threat.
No no no no no no NO!!!!! Gay men were never attacked as reality deniers. They were once despised in western society for being immoral, or maybe even "un-natural" but there was never any argument about what they actually are.

It is a completely different sort of perceived threat. I am opposed to reality-denial in principle, everywhere it exists. This comes before morality. In other words, before we can even ask sensible questions about the ethics of homosexuality first we have to be able to agree on what homosexuality is. Nobody is trying to claim gay men are actually women, are they?
The consequences of this are what we see in various countries where gay people are declared to not-exist (because homosexuality doesn’t exist) in the same way that trans people are not being declared to not-exist (because transness does not exist).
NO! Where did you get these beliefs from??? Even in the most repressive Islamic regimes, nobody denies the existence of homosexuality. They may condemn it as so morally wrong that homosexuals should be killed, but they absolutely do not deny that such people exist. Recently one of them claimed that homosexuality was caused by eating pork, for example: https://www.reddit.com/r/islam_ahmadiyy ... ting_pork/
Trans people have always existed, just as homosexual people have always existed. Trans people are not a threat by virtue of being trans. Just because trans people want to live in society in a way that doesn’t correspond to their chromosomes doesn’t make them a threat. Being trans is not a sexual perversion.

There have always been people who were confused about their sex, and believed they somehow had been born into the wrong body, yes. What is new is the claim that men who "identify as woman" actually are women, or that men can become women. You have got this completely wrong.
For sure, there has never been a real consensus on the causes of transgenderedness. Back in the nineties most medics seemed to believe it was caused by a hormonal imbalance in the womb during pregnancy leading to brain structure developing in opposition to other sexual characteristics. Since there has been no way to ‘correct’ the brain side of the equation and convince trans people they’re not trans, the compassionate solution was to allow them to change the rest of their bodies to match, as best as they could. This has been successful for the vast majority of trans people. Regret levels are ridiculously low. After the 90s, gender specialists began to try to de-medicalise being trans, considering it a variation in human diversity rather than a medical issue to be fixed. This is what has ultimately led to self-id and men just declaring themselves women and vice versa with no medical assessment. I can understand why trans groups wanted to go this route, but I always thought it was a mistake because it makes it all about selfish personal choice and not a serious mental health condition that only has one realistic form of treatment.
I basically agree with this.
I would personally want to revert to this earlier understanding of gender dysphoria where society takes a compassionate approach to allowing trans men and trans women to be accepted as they believe themselves to be, regardless of biological reality. It worked just fine for several decades.
Yes. And the trans activists will declare you a "threat to our communities" for holding this view. Why are you defending them?
My view is that trans people, once diagnosed as such by medical professionals, should be allowed to transition and live their lives as men or women as they believe themselves to be. The main tension is the period of transition itself, when a trans woman continues to look like man, and a trans man continues to look like a woman.
No. The tension derives from the fact the a man cannot become a woman at all. They remain men forever, regardless of what surgery they'd had or what hormones they have taken.
No trans person or their allies are denying a biological reality.
Oh yes they are. In spades.
So yeah, when Farage jumps on the anti-trans bandwagon, I crap myself and run for the hills. It’s an absolute nightmare.
With the greatest respect, I believe you have seriously misunderstood what the argument is actually about.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Ralphw2
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Re: General Election 2024

Post by Ralphw2 »

My elder adopted child has identified as a trans male for the last three years. For him this is a social identity, as far as I can tell he has no sexual inclinations. He uses testosterone but has no interest in any further physical changes.

He is no physical threat to anybody, being small and underweight even in female terms.

He does feel threatened by the anti woke brigade. Given his early trauma, adoption, ADHD and autism he finds it difficult to mix with any group.

He has seemed much happier these last three years. It gives him an identity he never had before.
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