I now live in the Rutherglen constituency that went back to Labour from the SNP in the by-election last year. Polls have Labour on about 47%, SNP on 32%, Tories on 7% and Reform around 2%. I'd vote Scottish Green but no candidate here, so I think I'll be voting SNP because they're at least willing to mention the B word. Labour are utterly uninspiring under Starmer and their main selling point seems to be that they won't do all the increasingly evil, stupid and desperate things that the Tories are promising. Promising not to do things is hardly going to get the blood going, especially if it's just a temporary reprieve before everyone forgets and the Tories/Reform sail back in in five years.
I can't decide if I want Reform to conquer the Tories or not. On the one hand, many of them seem to be complete MAGA-style nutters with a tenuous grip on reality, but on the other hand, they're massive fans of PR and if the scales ever tip in that direction then I could be pretty confident that they'll always need to be in coalition with more centrist groups to hold power. Heck, I'd even vote Tory if PR was in their manifesto. I'll never understand how govts can be allowed to hold absolute power for 5 years with 60% of the population having voted against them.
Reform's manifesto is 'a story of two halves': Half of it I think 'great, if only Labour or Tories would do this'. The other half I think I'd rather emigrate to avoid. Like someone else said, I don't think Reform are going away while they have a charismatic leader. More likely the dam bursts and all remaining Tories go over to them. Pretty sure most of the remaining Tory MPs will prefer Reform's policies anyway.
It's wild how incompetent Tory electioneering has been. Or maybe not, given how incompetent their delivery in govt has actually been. Oh for the halcyon days of John Major and Ken Clarke