General Election 2024

[Mark]

Gove probably has the best political 'instincts' of all of them...
He's decided to avoid the bloodbath and be first in the queue for the juicy business/banking/consultancy jobs...

[clv101]

Worked so well for Sunak, Macron wants a go:

Macron dissolves national assembly, calls snap elections
Emmanuel Macron, the French president, has announced that he is dissolving the national assembly, and calling for legislative elections on June 30 and July 7.

The French president said that he can’t pretend nothing has happened, that the outcome of the EU election is not good for his government and that the rise of nationalists is a danger for France and Europe.

Paris Olympics kicks off July 26th.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/p ... 59291.html

The Conservative Party is facing electoral wipeout, the latest poll has revealed, as a close ally of Rishi Sunak was forced to deny speculation that the prime minister could quit before the general election on 4 July.

Labour is set for a majority of 416 at the upcoming general election, leaving the Tories at just 37 seats, according to the new Deltapoll survey, which puts Sir Keir Starmer’s party on 46 per cent compared to the Conservatives on 21 per cent – with even the prime minister set to lose his Yorkshire seat.

Mr Sunak is claimed to be despondent over the furious backlash to his decision to skip a D-Day memorial attended by other world leaders, and he appeared to dodge questioning on Saturday after a scheduled press event was cancelled during a campaign visit to a walled garden at Auckland Castle.

With fierce critic Nadine Dorries claiming to have heard rumours on Saturday “that Sunak’s about to fall on his sword”, cabinet minister Mel Stride was forced to insist there was “no question” whether or not Mr Sunak would lead the Tories into polling day.

He can't spend the next 25 days in hiding. He chose a presidential-style election, and they have no plan B. So either he quits and lets somebody else take the wheel for the last dash over the cliff, or he has to come out and say....something. The whole thing is just beautiful. It can only get worse for them -- the only question is what variety of worse and how abysmal it gets.

[Mark]

i just can't imagine a 416 Labour majority, even though the polls are saying that.
Their vote share isn't up that much and there's no great surge of desire for Labour, it's just that the Tories are imploding...
As lovely as that is to witness, I don't think that a 416 Labour majority would be good for anyone, including Labour.
Hopefully, the minor parties can pick up some seats from somewhere to balance things off a bit.

I'd like to see a change to the FPTP voting system, to allow a wider variety of views in Parliament.
Any party with a massive lead isn't going to even consider that for their manifesto.
The likely outcome will be internal Labour fighting in a couple of years time...

[UndercoverElephant]

Nobody is talking about changing the electoral system at the moment, though I think that issue may start looming large when people start thinking ahead to future general elections.

Unlike yourself and Chris I can imagine a Labour majority of 300+. I can also imagine that it leads to the termination of the tory party as we currently understand it. Their future, and the whole future of western politics (see EU results) is now about migration and the so-called "far right" response to it. In the UK that means Reform UK, who are not going to go away until such time as they have either replaced the tories or conclusively taken them over. By "conclusively" I mean that it is acknowledged by everybody within the party that if there is an attempt to re-align the tories with a more traditional "one nation", anti-brexit position which is soft on or even positive towards net immigration, then what is now Reform UK will just re-emerge even stronger, thus ruling out that re-alignment. Currently people like Hunt are desperately warning people against this outcome, because it is very bad news for the entrenched wealth that the tories have always represented. What is not going to be an option if they are reduced to 37 seats is any sort of continuing fudge on this issue.

My own assumption is that the Hunt-Cameron-Mordaunt wing of the party will lose this battle, because it will be the only way to destabilise Labour's grip on the centre. My guess is that this is exactly what is going to happen, and that Labour too will eventually be torn apart by it. Does any of this lead to electoral reform and the end of FPTP? I have no idea.

[Potemkin Villager]

Ahhh poor wee Rishi!

Now a dead man on furlough, wondering why nobody believes a single word he says as he checks over his deluxe parachutes. The obligatory political memoir is already being rough drafted by a big blue AI “Ghost Writer” fed all the familiar politico corporate key phrases. I wasn’t told, I didn’t know at the time, I can’t recall that particular detail, it wasn’t my area of responsibility, I did my best to protect the brand, my actions were guided by my religious beliefs….

Meanwhile other parachutists land, fresh minted, adolescent looking Starmer facing clones, all trusted, brown nosed, new, Newer Labour electoral assets. Adept hacks variously out of Oxford PPE, Westminster researchers, Spads, think tank opinion formers. Singularly insulated from the real world and adept at not rocking the boat and staying on message whatever.

They are hoping for a good relationship with the local CLP.....

And now the magnificent manifestos all promising that universal elixir change!!!

Spot the hand of big blue AI. The theater of the absurd continues.

Game on.

[Forever_Winter]

i just can't imagine a 416 Labour majority, even though the polls are saying that.
Their vote share isn't up that much and there's no great surge of desire for Labour, it's just that the Tories are imploding...
As lovely as that is to witness, I don't think that a 416 Labour majority would be good for anyone, including Labour.
Hopefully, the minor parties can pick up some seats from somewhere to balance things off a bit.

I'd like to see a change to the FPTP voting system, to allow a wider variety of views in Parliament.
Any party with a massive lead isn't going to even consider that for their manifesto.
The likely outcome will be internal Labour fighting in a couple of years time...

I'd agree that a huge majority for Labour could be counter-productive if they can't get their ducks in a row. What I've seen of them so far I'd expect in-fighting could cause them to implode in a few years into their term.

I'd also like to see a move to PR in some form. FPTP isn't working anymore. Guess for me it's a toss-up between Labour and Reform.

[UndercoverElephant]

i just can't imagine a 416 Labour majority, even though the polls are saying that.
Their vote share isn't up that much and there's no great surge of desire for Labour, it's just that the Tories are imploding...
As lovely as that is to witness, I don't think that a 416 Labour majority would be good for anyone, including Labour.
Hopefully, the minor parties can pick up some seats from somewhere to balance things off a bit.

I'd like to see a change to the FPTP voting system, to allow a wider variety of views in Parliament.
Any party with a massive lead isn't going to even consider that for their manifesto.
The likely outcome will be internal Labour fighting in a couple of years time...

I'd agree that a huge majority for Labour could be counter-productive if they can't get their ducks in a row. What I've seen of them so far I'd expect in-fighting could cause them to implode in a few years into their term.

I can't see that happening while Starmer remains leader, which could easily be over a decade. Personally I think the Corbynite left has been defeated for good. The people still exist of course, but I don't believe they can re-assert power in the Labour Party again. I think it is more likely that something emerges on the left which is to Labour what Reform are now to the tories. That territory is currently occupied by the Greens, SNP and Plaid, but there is nothing coherent enough to pose a challenge to Labour.

I'd also like to see a move to PR in some form. FPTP isn't working anymore. Guess for me it's a toss-up between Labour and Reform.

I'd vote Reform if they were standing in my constituency. The guy from Plaid's comments about immigration during the 7-way debate has motivated me to vote Labour. "Open the doors! Migration is good for us! [everybody who disagrees is a racist!]". I live in the safest of Plaid's two seats -- the only immigrants here are white English people, and it is resisting the effects of English immigration which defines everything Plaid stand for.

[UndercoverElephant]

Rishi has come out of hiding, and this is what he has said:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... arage.html

Rishi Sunak sounded defiance today as he scrambled to get the Tories' election campaign back on track after the D-Day shambles.

The PM insisted he is 'not going to stop' as he visited Horsham in West Sussex - traditionally a stronghold - after an extraordinary weekend of recriminations.

Mr Sunak was accused of ducking interviews in the wake of his grovelling apology for returning early from commemorations of the 80th anniversary of D-Day in Normandy to carry out an election interview.

He reiterated his regret saying he 'hoped people can find it in their hearts to forgive me'.

But Mr Sunak roundly dismissed wild rumours that he could quit during the campaign, saying: 'The reality is I'm not going to stop going, I'm not going to stop fighting for people's votes, I'm not going to stop fighting for the future of our country.

'I believe in what we are doing deeply. I think our country is at an important moment, we're at a crossroads, and that's why I called this election because, having restored economic stability, this is the moment to really think about how we can deliver a more secure future for everyone.'

In the middle of a general election campaign, the Prime Minister is begging for forgiveness for making an indefensible and incomprehensible error, and he's also [implicitly] asking us to believe that he should be trusted over Sir Keir Starmer to lead the country through a massive crisis.

He and his party haven't suffered anything like enough to have earned anyone's forgiveness. I am so looking forwards to July 4th.

[mr brightside]

I like the idea of reform replacing the tories as the opposition to a starmer labour govt. it might even make me remove my polling card from the waste paper basket.

[Potemkin Villager]

.......the only immigrants here are white English people

Wow! This sounds a very dubious assertion indeed and one can only wonder what evidence, other than anecdotal, it is based on. It would be very surprising indeed, for example, if there were not a significant number of settlers, amongst others, from just the other side of the Irish Sea well established and intermarried in the region. When do immigrants stop being immigrants?

If it were true the area would provide an astoundingly unique 100% Western Brit control group for a study comparing the impact of different immigrant groups.

[UndercoverElephant]

.......the only immigrants here are white English people

Wow! This sounds a very dubious assertion indeed and one can only wonder what evidence, other than anecdotal, it is based on.

It is based on living here for 2 years. Literally, in the entire time I have been here I cannot recall seeing a single black person, and only once have I seen a family of people wearing Islamic dress. Admittedly I live in the countryside and spend very little time in the few urban areas here, but I can assure you that what I am saying is true.

It would be very surprising indeed, for example, if there were not a significant number of settlers, amongst others, from just the other side of the Irish Sea well established and intermarried in the region. When do immigrants stop being immigrants?

OK...when I said "English" I should have said of primarily British/Irish descent with English as their first language. Although I actually do have an aunt who lives near here who was born in Guyana. I am just talking about my experience of real life here. I grew up in South London -- I know what multiculturalism is, and there isn't any of it in Ceredigion.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ceddenl8xz4o

Douglas Ross has announced he will resign as leader of the Scottish Conservatives.

He will carry on in the role until after the election and will also resign as an MSP if he is re-elected to Westminster.

It follows a row over Mr Ross standing as a candidate for Aberdeenshire North and Moray East instead of David Duguid, who has been in hospital and was in effect de-selected.

Mr Ross said he originally thought he could continue to serve as an MSP and MP as well as party leader, but said "on reflection, that is not feasible".

He was the only MSP to also serve as an MP in the current Holyrood session before the UK Parliament dissolved.

What the actual F--k is going on? On the same morning that Rishi Sunak has to assure everybody he isn't quitting, the leader of the Scottish tories actually does quit. You could not make this up.

[Mark]

and this....

Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

[adam2]

and this....

Reform candidate said UK should have been neutral against Hitler:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjmmrwexv4ko

I had considered voting for Reform, but decided against so doing. Although I agree with many of their policies I can not support the opposition to effective actions on climate change. They also sound a bit like a UK version of Trump "Make Britain great again" compares perhaps to MAGA, a key Trump slogan.
The above quoted remark about hitler is another good reason, in my view, to avoid them. I was not even alive during hitlers war, though it was a recent memory when I was a child. Had I been alive at the time I would have proud to fight for, and if need be to die for my country.

An elderly relative who had served his country with distinction, went so far as to say "those who refuse to fight for their country, do not deserve the protection of that country. Killing them should not be a crime"