What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
This D-Day cock-up is final proof that Rishi Sunak is an embarrassment to Britain
There is no one else to blame: it is his own judgment that has let the country down. Is this his idea of national service?
Having D-Day in the middle of the election campaign should have been a massive opportunity for a Tory PM...
Photo ops with veterans, waving the Union Jack, hobnobbing with other world leaders...
Instead, he's managed to convert that opportunity into a massive OG....
Suspect the Tories lose 2/3 points in the polls on the back of this...
Most of those votes will go to Reform....
FWIW, you can end a sentence with just one full stop.
And yes to all that. In fact it is even worse, because he's just been promoting the idea of bringing back National Service, and this specific super-gaffe reveals that he does not share the values of the exact demographic that are likely to be impressed by such an idea.
And in other news, Britain Elects has issued a new forecast. This is not an MRP poll, but does the same thing using a different methodology and model.
UndercoverElephant wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024, 14:46
FWIW, you can end a sentence with just one full stop.
Sorry......
Interesting to look at the Britain Predicts model for Clacton:
⬤ Ref 29.8 + 29.8
⬤ Con 28.2 - 43.7
⬤ Lab 21.9 + 6.3
Looks like Lab voters are going to have to vote Con to stop Farage
Don't see that being very likely
UndercoverElephant wrote: ↑07 Jun 2024, 14:46
FWIW, you can end a sentence with just one full stop.
Sorry......
Interesting to look at the Britain Predicts model for Clacton:
⬤ Ref 29.8 + 29.8
⬤ Con 28.2 - 43.7
⬤ Lab 21.9 + 6.3
Looks like Lab voters are going to have to vote Con to stop Farage
Don't see that being very likely
Indeed. Labour voters in Clacton are more likely to switch to Farage than the tories.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
My better half assures me the debate on the Beeb this evening should be great political entertainment with the men well outnumbered by the gentler sex. The set looks very Dr Who.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Mark wrote: ↑27 May 2024, 15:32
Transition Wilmslow are hosting 'environmental hustings' featuring candidates for the Tatton Constituency:
It would be nice to see such a thing live streamed on YouTube or a similar streaming platform.
Apparently, the plan is to livestream to Facebook - if/when I get a link, I'll post it on here....
Esther McVey dragging her feet about livestreaming - still not agreed !
Anyway...., here's the link - no idea if it will be functioning or not.... https://www.facebook.com/TransitionWilmslow
I think it is taking some time for the enormity of Sunak's "mistake" to sink in. The pretty much unanimous response is that it is both indefensible and incomprehensible, on multiple levels. How is it possible that the PM of the UK didn't instantly know that leaving this event early for no good reason was the politically catastrophic? Why didn't any of his advisors tell him? Why didn't Cameron tell him? People are comparing it to other major campaign wobbles -- Kinnock's Sheffield rally, Brown's bigoted woman, May's dementia tax -- but none of them come close to this. It amounts to a personal slight directed not only at the D-day veterans but at the entire nation. He's not properly British. He sees himself as above that, and doesn't even understand why that is the political equivalent of anthrax.
Still think the tories are going to close the gap during the campaign, Chris?
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
clv101 wrote: ↑22 May 2024, 19:23
I expect Tories to close the gap to from ~20 points to Labour to 14-12 points come election day. Labour are unlikely in my opinion to achieve a majority over 100 seats. A comfortable win, but not the landslide today's polls suggest.
I may have underestimated the Tory's incompetence! And Farage standing.
I'll modify that to expecting a Labour majority of between 100 and 150, certainly nothing like 300 though.
clv101 wrote: ↑08 Jun 2024, 16:19
This is what I thought on 22nd May:
clv101 wrote: ↑22 May 2024, 19:23
I expect Tories to close the gap to from ~20 points to Labour to 14-12 points come election day. Labour are unlikely in my opinion to achieve a majority over 100 seats. A comfortable win, but not the landslide today's polls suggest.
I may have underestimated the Tory's incompetence! And Farage standing.
I'll modify that to expecting a Labour majority of between 100 and 150, certainly nothing like 300 though.
My own estimate has shifted slightly further towards tory annihilation than it was before. I think it is harder to predict the labour majority than it is to predict the total number of tory seats. The tories are actively losing the election rather than labour winning it. I am now expecting them to struggle to make 3 figures, and the libdems becoming the official opposition is now a significant possibility.
We still have over three weeks of this to go. The manifestos aren't even out yet. While this is surely the biggest mistake of the campaign, that doesn't mean things can't get even worse for them. What is Sunak going to do now? He appears to have gone into hiding. The risk is an extreme anti-Midas effect, whereby everything that comes out of his mouth just makes things worse.
Looking back at my own contributions to this thread, I got the start date of the Euros wrong. The election is going to be the day before the quarter-finals. It is going to be quite something if we get a tory extinction-level event at the election and then England win the euros 10 days later.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Mark wrote: ↑08 Jun 2024, 11:33
Esther McVey dragging her feet about livestreaming - still not agreed !
Anyway...., here's the link - no idea if it will be functioning or not.... https://www.facebook.com/TransitionWilmslow
Anybody catch this.....?
Esther went down like a lead balloon - if that room is anything to go by, she's toast...
The LIB and LAB guys both did very well...., the GRN did OK..., RFM didn't show...
Mark wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024, 09:56
Tories accused of 'dirty tricks' as Reform UK candidate pulls out of general election race to hand ex-Cabinet minister Gavin Williamson an easier ride: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -ride.html
Surprised there hasn't been more of this over the past few days....
Might backfire on them. I can see people who wanted to vote for Reform switching to Labour in order to punish the Tories for depriving them of the opportunity to vote Reform.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
Potemkin Villager wrote: ↑09 Jun 2024, 14:06
Anybody anticipating who might provide some well deserved Portillo moments in this election?
I fancy a few bob on Jeremy 'unt .
Sunak himself is the biggest one, followed by Truss. Also Rees-Mogg, Shapps, Mordaunt, Duncan-Smith and Braverman. Of those 8, at least half will go and maybe all of them.
Although Nadine Dories says Sunak won't even make to the election.
