Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

I don't see the point of Labour taking her on board, just for a few months....

I heard that they are going to employ her as an advisor, presumably because they believe her advice might be useful to them.

[Mark]

I heard that they are going to employ her as an advisor, presumably because they believe her advice might be useful to them.

She's going to advise them on how the Tories do things so well......?
The country wants something different, not more of the same old tripe...

[UndercoverElephant]

I heard that they are going to employ her as an advisor, presumably because they believe her advice might be useful to them.

She's going to advise them on how the Tories do things so well......?
The country wants something different, not more of the same old tripe...

Not sure what to say apart from what I already said: presumably they believe her advice (on housing) might be useful to them. Don't ask me why, that's not my job.

Guardian says this:

In a Commons debate last month Elphicke made a strong attack on the renters (reform) bill, saying that it had been made too favourable to landlords. She worked in housing, and on housing policy, before becoming an MP and has published reports on how social housing can be funded

[Ralphw2]

Reports that Sunak is to give a signature speech today outlining the Tory election strategy. It will emphasise "external" threats, war , migration and AI. Only the Tories can be trusted in these difficult times, etc

Nationalism. The last resort of the desperate

[Potemkin Villager]

What nothing about the enemy within!

[dustiswhatweare]

Ok then, about this signature speech .............

Rish! now had a delusional conceptual leap. What had Labour been doing for the last 14 years? Er … they had been in opposition. One of the downsides of not being in government is you don’t get to run the country. But Sunak was adamant that Keir Starmer had been secretly running a government in exile, which is why the UK was on its knees. And if he was allowed to become prime minister, then everyone in the country would die. We could measure out the rest of our lives in a matter of hours.

Gotta love John Crace.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/ar ... e-with-him

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-69048696

Civil servants, advisers, MPs, you name it - there is, not for the first time this year, a swirl of chat within government and beyond that the prime minister might be about to call a general election, or at least have something to say about it.

Cards on the table: I am usually not that excitable about this kind of stuff, because it is usually quickly debunked.

This time, at least as I write this, it feels different.

Since yesterday , I have been seeking a straight answer to whether Rishi Sunak is about to call an election and no straight answer has come.

Calls that are normally returned haven't been.

It's not a complete wall of silence, but the only question that matters isn't being directly addressed.

[clv101]

LBC seem to have decided election announcement is imminent.

A few sunny days and inflation down to 2.x% and it's game on?

[clv101]

Sky news are calling it for 4th July. Seems a good idea, things are unlikely to be better in the autumn. And if Sunak knows he's going to lose then why waste 6 months of his life?

[Ralphw2]

4th July confirmed. Govern prorogued Friday. A lot of legislation will not get passed

[Ralphw2]

Sunak gets a very comfortable win. Hunt narrowly survives. Sunak admits Labour victory.

Forecast majority 170

[clv101]

Looking like 33.9% Labour, 23.7% Tory.

Only ~10% after weeks of polls saying Labour had a 20% lead. Why can't the polling companies incorporate the consistent observations over decades that the Tories always outperform the polls on election day?

[UndercoverElephant]

Looking like 33.9% Labour, 23.7% Tory.

Only ~10% after weeks of polls saying Labour had a 20% lead. Why can't the polling companies incorporate the consistent observations over decades that the Tories always outperform the polls on election day?

Because they don't know whether that is an error that is always there, but only tested on election day, or only there on election day.

[adam2]

Thread title edited to reflect recent election result.

[UndercoverElephant]

The tories, now in opposition, are faced with a fundamental strategic problem. Their path back to power cannot take two contradictory directions. In the south there are 50-odd ex-tory seats now held by the Liberal Democrats, who are social leftists, economically to the left of Labour and theoretically in favour of rejoining the EU. In the midlands and north there are 100+ seats taken by Labour because Reform ate so far into the tory vote. It is very hard to see how the tories can make progress on both these fronts at the same time, and the choice over which direction to go in is a direct reflection of a deep split in the party itself. If they elect a leader who tries to fight both these battles at the same time then they will lose both, but if they clearly focus on one of the battles then they'll go backwards in the other.

I can't see a way out of this dilemma, because it is the result of fundamentally contrasting and incompatible visions of the future. It should be noted that Labour faces a similar problem, it is not clear how they are going to deal with it either, but Labour losing votes because of this does not translate into tory gains. Both may lose.