Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

I agree.

[Ralphw2]

The BBC is the propaganda mouthpiece of the local management arm of the Western ruling class.

Did they provide links to the videos or show any of them?

The western media do not generally put videos of torture on line, but they are widely available on social media. The details I referred to are now widely accepted by all the main media outlets, as well as most social media and al jazera. The BBC are showing photos of one suspect with a heavily bandage where his ear should be, a second was wheeled into court unconscious, direct from hospital. It is reported that the videos were released directly by the FSB, and include electrocution of genitals.

The Russian PM is calling for the reintroduction of the death penalty, which is ironic coming from an organisation with such a rich history of extra judicial executions.

[Ralphw2]

The president of Belarus says the suspects were trying to flee to his country, not Ukraine, when they were arrested.

I fully expect all four suspects to “die of injuries sustained during arrest “ before they can speak in open court. This will make page 16 of the Russian newspapers and that is the last that most Russians will ever hear of the attack.

[invalid]

Ukraine currently building fortifications around Kiev. So much for taking back Crimea!

[clv101]

Russia's spring offensive could be devastating. The was an article in the Times a few days ago talking up the threat of Russians reaching Kyiv - I don't think that will happen any time soon, but interesting that's the subject getting air time instead of recapturing Crimea for example.

I think Russia will make some kind of breakthrough in the next few months which will lead to rushed and unilateral response/support from various Western countries.

[invalid]

More verdicts on the failed Ukrainian counteroffensive that was so enthusiastically cheered on by a few here.

https://twitter.com/DavidSacks/status/1 ... frame.html

https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/177 ... frame.html

[invalid]

Kyiv's top general says Ukraine needs fewer troops than expected

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/ky ... 024-03-29/

Almost an admission of defeat really.

Reading between the lines It suggests to me that they can't actually find that many people to recruit - too many have already fled or would flee? They don't believe that civil society will tolerate It? Can't equip or afford that many soldiers? Or already have assurances of relief from France?

[Default0ptions]

I notice that the US is becoming increasingly annoyed by Ukraine’s targeting of Russian oil assets because it’s raising the price of oil.

“Ukrainian Drones Hit Russia's Third-Largest Oil Refinery, Prompting White House Anger”

“Ukraine keeps striking Russian oil assets despite the Biden admin's unequivocal demands for a hard stop, suggesting that diplomatic fallout is now imminent.”

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ukrai ... l-refinery

[Ralphw2]

It is hard to see how hitting refineries, which consume oil, causes the price of unrefined oil to rise. With less demand, it should fall

[Default0ptions]

It is hard to see how hitting refineries, which consume oil, causes the price of unrefined oil to rise. With less demand, it should fall

Nonetheless “Joe Biden Demands Ukraine Halt Strikes On Russian Refiners As It Is Sending Oil Prices Surging”

Perhaps you could tell him that he doesn’t need to worry.

“this morning the FT reported what our readers already knew, namely that the Biden admin is freaking out that Ukraine's drone strikes "risk driving up global oil prices" which is why Biden has "urged Ukraine to halt attacks on Russia’s energy infrastructure."

“And it wasn't just once, or twice: the "repeated warnings" from Washington were delivered to senior officials at Ukraine’s state security service, the SBU, and its military intelligence directorate, known as the GUR”

You may well be right, but the US is still unhappy about it.

[adam2]

It is hard to see how hitting refineries, which consume oil, causes the price of unrefined oil to rise. With less demand, it should fall

I agree. But historically, attacks on oil refineries, or industrial disputes therein, or extreme weather damaging refineries have tended to increase oil prices. As you point out, prices of crude oil should fall and not rise.
Lack of refinery capacity whether due to war or other causes could lead to a shortage of refined oil products and increases in prices for such products.

[Ralphw2]

Given that the US has more or less stopped supplying Ukraine with weapons, they can not be too surprised that Ukraine chooses to use it's home built weapons against the invading nations home infrastructure, especially as the invading nation has been trying to bomb Ukrainian infrastructure for the last two years.

Reports that NATO is preparing plans to spend 100B supporting Ukraine independently from any US funding in the case of a Trump re election.

Europe recognises that the Russian invasion of Ukraine is an existential threat even if half of the US does not

[clv101]

Ukraine seem to have suffered some significant hits on their power system over the last couple of days and lots of chatter about a serious shortages in artillery and ground based air defence. If Ukraine were to essentially run out of air defence missiles it would be catastrophic as the Russian air force would have free reign.

[BritDownUnder]

Looks like a 'saturation' attack. Whether a power station is completely destroyed is debatable. If it was a single unit power plant then it's possible. For multi unit power plants it would be a more difficult proposition. Also depends on the number of spare parts available. I have seen gas power plants pretty much disassembled in a few weeks on shutdowns, even the boiler tubes.

I would expect Ukraine will hit back the Russian power grid. Personally I would go for HV power lines and large transformers. I was standing on a transformer over the weekend as it happens. Some kind of drone that lands on power lines and places an explosive charge that cuts the wires (only need to knock out one of the three phases). However, they should not be distracted from the main aim of the war of putting fighting-age Russians into graves. I hear that Russian prisons are closing due to lack of inmates.

On another topic those glide bombs seem to be quite lethal and from one photo I saw, quite crudely made, with welding of the fabricated wings being ground and smoothed off. One would hope the Ukrainians can get something equivalent.

[adam2]

The situation looks very serious, hopefully the free world will send more ammunition and other military supplies, I donk think that Ukraine can resist and repel rusian aggression without help.

Some reports suggest that France are considering sending troops to help the Ukrainian forces.

If russia wins, whom will be the next nation to be liberated ? Poland ? A full scale land invasion of Poland seems unlikely, even if putin wins in Ukraine, it has been much slower and at a greater cost than was expected.
More likely IMHO would a well organised programme of "workers uprisings" that call for closer ties with russia. Similar to events in Ukraine before the invasion.