Conservative party/opposition watch

[Ralphw2]

The left may simply chose not to vote. Combined with the id requirements,bi expect turnout to be low

[Mark]

Who do you think pro-palestinians are going to vote for to make their voices heard? Ditto people who are disappointed about the green investment fund? These are all political calculations. Starmer is not being challenged from the left. He has got the left well and truly under control. That is why Labour remains so electable.

Number of votes won in 2019:
Conservative 13,966,451
Labour 10,295,907
LDs 3,696,423
SNP 1,242,380
Greens 865,697
Brexit 642,323

The LDs have called for an immediate ceasefire in Palestine:
https://www.libdems.org.uk/news/article ... l-and-gaza

The Greens have been vocal about the green investment fund:
https://www.greenparty.org.uk/news/2024 ... d-economy/

Together they polled over 4.5 million votes last time.
There are alternatives out there....

[UndercoverElephant]

The left may simply chose not to vote. Combined with the id requirements,bi expect turnout to be low

If the left doesn't vote then Labour will win by a smaller margin...

[Ralphw2]

Labour win both by-elections. Reform get 10%and 13%. Wellingborough the second biggest swing since 1945.

[clv101]

The Reform margins are the biggest threat to Tories, those results are significantly higher than past by elections.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Reform margins are the biggest threat to Tories, those results are significantly higher than past by elections.

Yes. Not just the number of votes but the fact they are attacking from the right. It leaves Sunak with no options, since whichever direction he tries to move in he will lose votes in the other direction.

I think Richard Tice genuinely believes Reform UK can kill off and replace the tories as the largest party on the right. Maybe not in one go, but he does seem to be committed to the attempt. Put that together with desperate tory voters resigned to Labour winning the next election and this becomes a massive fight for the future of the political right in this country.

[Mark]

I think Richard Tice genuinely believes Reform UK can kill off and replace the tories as the largest party on the right. Maybe not in one go, but he does seem to be committed to the attempt. Put that together with desperate tory voters resigned to Labour winning the next election and this becomes a massive fight for the future of the political right in this country.

We've been here before, but UKIP didn't last the course...
OK, let's imagine a reduced Tory Party, and a much increased Reform Party...
These people and their world view will still exist, it's just that their vote will be split...

Their only way back into power might then rely on some form of electoral reform...?
Which might not be a bad thing all round...

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Richard Tice genuinely believes Reform UK can kill off and replace the tories as the largest party on the right. Maybe not in one go, but he does seem to be committed to the attempt. Put that together with desperate tory voters resigned to Labour winning the next election and this becomes a massive fight for the future of the political right in this country.

We've been here before, but UKIP didn't last the course...

On the contrary, UKIP appeared to be a one-issue party that would cease to exist if we left the EU (much as the SNP would if Scotland left the UK), but things have not turned out that way. Instead, and primarily because the tories failed to use brexit as an opportunity to get immigration under control, UKIP morphed into Reform UK -- it is essentially the same party. It clearly hasn't gone away.

OK, let's imagine a reduced Tory Party, and a much increased Reform Party...
These people and their world view will still exist, it's just that their vote will be split...

If Reform UK becomes a permanent presence to the right of the tories then the tories are absolutely screwed. They are already deeply conflicted over immigration and growth -- one half of the party wants immigration stopped regardless of economic concerns and the other half wants economic growth at any cost and doesn't give a crap about immigration. This split has been brewing for decades, brexit was an attempt to resolve it once and for all, but it has failed to resolved it. It means we will end up with two parties on the right, which will ensure neither of them ever win an election.

Their only way back into power might then rely on some form of electoral reform...?
Which might not be a bad thing all round...

It changes UK politics fundamentally and permanently. Yes, that is on balance a good thing. But it all depends on Reform UK actually standing against the tories. If they back out of doing that like the Brexit Party did at the last election then they are finished. They will not make it to the subsequent election, because nobody will be willing to be a candidate for them.

[Mark]

Ex-Tory Chair Lee Anderson declares he 'wants his country back' and joins Reform - their first (unelected) MP....
He's obviously channeling his inner Trump...

Personally don't agree with any MP being able to just swap Party whilst at Westminster....
Appreciate there's not long before the GE, but I think this should automatically trigger another By-election...

[clv101]

I think swapping party should be grounds for a recall vote, in this case there's a reasonable chance he'd win. But the general principle, I don't think an MP should be elected on one manifesto then, swap parties and continue to represent a constituency that specifically didn't vote for that manifesto.

[BritDownUnder]

It will be interesting to see if Reform can capture more Northern seats with a clear white majority of voters. Perhaps they will make a strange bedfellow to other Northern seats which have a significant Pakistani minority or majority falling to whatever George Galloway's party is currently called. I hear the Reform candidate in the recent Rochdale by-election came in for some "special treatment" from the Galloway mob.

I would expect that, given he is representing a rather bad area of Mansfield which itself has rather a bad reputation within Nottinghamshire, not England's most friendly county, he would romp home in any by-election as he actually represents what the people there think. My brother worked as a bin man in that area for a while and said there were some parts there where even bin men feared to go.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/26641310/ ... -election/

WARNED OFF Rishi Sunak warned against May general election in tense private talks with senior Tory MPs
Others warned the PM could be in mortal danger of an attempt to oust him

The tories are now terrified and panicking. They don't know what to do. They know if they call a May election the result will be really bad, but there's a growing fear that if they don't call it then it could be much worse than really bad.

My best guess is we're going to see an election called before the end of this week.

[clv101]

There are local elections on 2nd May. These seats were last contested in '21 when the Tories did relatively well. Numerically, it's going to be catastrophic for them. Is there a level of loss which simply makes Sunak's position untenable? He's forced to resign, and the new leader calls election immediately?

If he's calculated that he can't continue after the local elections, he might as well call GE for May?

[UndercoverElephant]

There are local elections on 2nd May. These seats were last contested in '21 when the Tories did relatively well. Numerically, it's going to be catastrophic for them. Is there a level of loss which simply makes Sunak's position untenable? He's forced to resign, and the new leader calls election immediately?

If he's calculated that he can't continue after the local elections, he might as well call GE for May?

Who knows what is going on in Rishi Sunak's mind. Everybody already knows the results of the local elections are going to be extremely bad for the tories -- there is no possible result which will make it look like they might be about turn a corner. So I am not sure his position is going to get any more untenable than it already is, because everybody has already priced that result in. There are some tories who think that if England win the Euros it might transform the country's mood and save them, but surely this is just delusion born of desperation.

I'm not sure he's that scared of being toppled by his own party, simply because nobody in their right mind would want to replace him. The one possible exception being Nigel Farage, whose current position and actions are intriguing to say the least.

[UndercoverElephant]

So in an attempt to quiet the panic he's now announced that the election won't take place until inflation drops to 2%. If I was a tory MP, this would just intensify the anxiety for me. If he thinks inflation dropping to 2% is going to make a significant difference to the election result then he clearly doesn't understand that everybody is sick to death of his party. It just looks weak and hopeless.