Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

Suggestions are it's now 12 planes down in 12 days! What's changed? Ukraine brining more Patriot hardware up to the frontline? Are Russia using a lot more airpower on the frontline? Whatever the reason, these losses a happening at a much faster rate than new planes are being built and pilots trained.

[Ralphw2]

The Russians are for the first time using their planes for close air support on the front line. They want to advance as far as possible beyond Avdiivka as they can, before Ukraine can build an effective defensive line, and to make as much headline progress as possible before the "election". Their use of glide bombs is putting Ukraine very much on the back foot, so suddenly aircraft are the prime target for the Ukrainians. It is just possible that Russia lost its last operational AWACs last week, weakening their ability to evade Ukrainian missiles.

Possibly Ukraine has some new hardware which they are keeping secret for now, but secrecy rarely lasts more than a few days after first use.

Russia clearly sees these as temporarily acceptible losses for the gains made. It is reported that for the first time Russia used their brand new S57 stealth attack aircraft to bomb Ukriane, (and Ukraine reports that the bomb missed any target).

[clv101]

Anyone have any thoughts on how many Western personnel are currently operating in Ukraine? Scholz recently said UK forces were on the ground operating Storm Shadow. I assume there's also a sizable US presence associated with Patriot. It's unclear how many British or Americans are on the ground under their own flags and how many are 'independent', associated with Blackwater etc.

It's been my opinion for over a year that this conflict is only going one way, in Russia's favour, without significantly more Western support, including boots on the ground, planes in the sky if any significant territory is to be recaptured. That support does not seem to be forthcoming - and certainly doesn't look politically possible. No way Sunak would have popular support for deploying 20,000 UK personnel to Ukraine for example and the US can't even send old artillery shells.

It's my opinion that Ukraine's military, as an effective, organised, equipped force is now on the point of collapse and Russia knows this. This spring will prove decisive.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's my opinion that Ukraine's military, as an effective, organised, equipped force is now on the point of collapse and Russia knows this.

I seem to remember you saying pretty much exactly the same thing at least 9 months ago?

From my perspective it looks like the west will continue to provide enough support to prevent Russia from winning, but not enough to rapidly turn the tide in Ukraine's favour. In other words, it looks like western support is leading towards stalemate rather than victory -- and that may well have been the case from the start. It's not just the expense -- there has always been a fear that if things start going really badly for Russia then there is a very high risk of escalation towards a nuclear exchange.

I don't think it is likely that either side can break across the river. My best guess (whatever that is worth) is that this conflict is going to continue well past the end of this year, and may well continue until Putin is dead. If the situation is that neither side can deliver a knock-out blow and it is also impossible to negotiate a peace settlement because Putin cannot be trusted to keep to any agreement whatsoever then the only thing that can break the stalemate is the removal of Putin from the equation.

The West cannot let Russia actually take the whole of Ukraine, because there's no reason to believe they will stop at Ukraine's borders.

[clv101]

It's my opinion that Ukraine's military, as an effective, organised, equipped force is now on the point of collapse and Russia knows this.

I seem to remember you saying pretty much exactly the same thing at least 9 months ago?

Indeed and since then the situation has only deteriorated.

[UndercoverElephant]

It's my opinion that Ukraine's military, as an effective, organised, equipped force is now on the point of collapse and Russia knows this.

I seem to remember you saying pretty much exactly the same thing at least 9 months ago?

Indeed and since then the situation has only deteriorated.

Deterioration from the point of collapse ought to have resulted in an actual collapse. That clearly hasn't happened. Taking out 12 Russian planes in 12 days doesn't look like collapsing to me.

[clv101]

Yeah, I'm continually being reminded just how long wars take. Wars are typically long, griding affairs - the modern western, shock and awe, against a dramatically weaker opponent is over in days/weeks, but this isn't the norm. Wars of this magnitude take years. A few months ago they evidently weren't as close to collapse as I thought, I think they are now closer. I have no crystal ball, it's just my feeling we're going to see the end of this 'phase' of the conflict this year and it's likely to be defined by a degree of Ukrainian collapse. The question is how the west, and Russia, responds to this. My feeling, again, is that the west won't dramatically increase support, or that Russia will push dramatically forward - they won't cross they river or enter Kiev. It'll be about consolidating gains, digging in, and rearming, to remove any possibility of being kicked out if the west one day decide we are up for the fight.

While Russia obviously takes the blame for the initial invasion, the way the war has developed is in large part the responsibility of the West. We *could* have ended it within the first few weeks but at every step of the way have dragged our feet, preventing defeat, but never enabling victory.

[BritDownUnder]

The West's inability to properly provide shells does seem to be a weakness that enemies will exploit. If the Ukraine losses of 31,000 dead is accurate that is about 1/1000th of the pre-war population which is quite low by most standards. So far I don't think Ukraine have introduced conscription which I think they should.

The West should focus on the killing of Russian combatants in high numbers and supply appropriate armaments. Then focus on high value items like planes and ships. The war is not popular in Russia and more deaths will reflect badly on Putin and gradually undermine him. I would give it a few more years before the West should fold. If Russia has to build one combat plane per day it will be a drag on their economy and stop them developing their oil or gas reserves for invest in civilian industry.

A Trump Presidency will be interesting though.

[UndercoverElephant]

The question is how the west, and Russia, responds to this.

Exactly. Which means how close we really are to a Ukrainian collapse actually depends on things outside of Ukraine -- things which are either hidden from our view, or too complex for anybody to predict reliably anyway.

We *could* have ended it within the first few weeks but at every step of the way have dragged our feet, preventing defeat, but never enabling victory.

Except we couldn't, as you yourself have explained in the past. The problem is that too large or rapid a setback for the Russians could provoke some sort of major escalation, heading towards a nuclear exchange.

Some wars end in a stalemate which isn't resolved for decades.

[Ralphw2]

Ukraine is now outgunned, and Russia is adapting to exploit this. Ukraine has been kept from defeat by the West, but Russia has been given the weapons it needed to turn the tide by Iran, and in particular north Korean artillery shells.

Ukraine did not build defensive lines in depth, because of incompetence, over confidence or corruption. They are currently in danger of a significant loss of territory.

I underestimated the number of aircraft Russia has to carry glide bombs. They have withdrawn their few remaining AWACS aircraft but have up to 300 bombers left. They can afford to lose one a day , even if the Ukrainian claims are true.

[adam2]

I am pleased to advise that another aid convoy has left the area, bound for Ukraine.
Mainly hospital supplies, sheets, blankets, towels, hospital gowns, staff work wear, packed in several vans, these also being donated.
Also a couple of large gas heated tumble dryers for hospital laundry, these in great demand as electricity supplies not always sufficient for bulk electric drying.
A recently retired plumber has donated a van full of plumbing supplies and parts.
I have donated a few LPG lights, spare mantles and large amount of high pressure gas hose.

[UndercoverElephant]

Does anybody believe this war can end while Putin remains alive? By "end" I mean that the world arrives at a state where Russia's borders are internationally accepted to be in the same place Russia claims them to be (by which standard the Korean War has technically not ended).

[adam2]

I expect putin to be killed probably by political rivals, polonium laced tea might be culturally appropriate, or perhaps a nerve agent

[clv101]

Does anybody believe this war can end while Putin remains alive? By "end" I mean that the world arrives at a state where Russia's borders are internationally accepted to be in the same place Russia claims them to be (by which standard the Korean War has technically not ended).

I doubt that kind of 'end' is ever going to happen with respect to Russia, and globally, I expect the general state of affairs of internationally accepted boarders to diminish. The end of globalism, the end of US overwatch, the emerging multipolar world, the weakening of UN, all these trends are going to erode the present order of things - I expect in 30 years time the world is going to look a lot messier with dozens of border disputes.

[clv101]

I expect putin to be killed probably by political rivals, polonium laced tea might be culturally appropriate, or perhaps a nerve agent

Do you really expect that? Or is it just want you'd like to see? Putin has shown himself to be very effective at removing political opposition. He'll likely die of natural causes within ~15 years IMO. I think talk of a 'Palace coup' is highly misplaced, Putin has a lot of popular support both in the general public and the military - takes personal security extremely seriously and cultivates a super loyal inner circle. The strongest opposition comes from ultra-nationalists factions that want him to push harder against the west.