Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

Ukraine claims sinking of russian landing ship, near Crimea.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68292602

[clv101]

Ukraine will have trouble in making advances but they may not have to. To continue whittling down the Russians in their defensive lines and take advantage of the increasing public discontent in Russia. Then using asymmetric warfare to remove Russian military hardware from service and give the West an excellent weapon testing laboratory.

For sure, it's a war of attrition - but the availability of Ukrainian manpower might be the first thing to run out ?

Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

A war of attrition, as has been pointed out from day one, favours Russia. They have greater manpower, more tolerance for casualties, greater manufacturing base (than Ukraine), greater bio-physical resources, greater tranactional relationships with others for their energy and mineral exports. Ukraine absolutely can't win a war of attrition without overwhelming support from allies to achieve a rapid victory. The west, politically, has little appitite for long, drawn out conflicts. We're sick of that kinda thing after Iraq and Afghanistan.

[clv101]

Ukraine claims sinking of russian landing ship, near Crimea.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68292602

Those naval drones are incredibly effective, gotta be a big worry for today's big naval powers.

[Ralphw2]

Clear video online of the ship sinking (or at least a similar ship sinking at some point in time).

These drones are having a similar effect as the airborne ones on the front line, in that they are both hard to spot and cheap enough to send a swarm to overwhelm the target. They do need some sort of radar or satellite coverage to help locate the target, but they have much longer range and so can make large areas no go areas for ships. They are big enough to sink medium sized ships (2000 tonnes) or damage larger ones, They will be vulnerable to jamming or GPS spoofing, but that is a constantly evolving area of electronic warfare. Once locked onto a target they probably can become autonomous and home in using cameras or infra red.

[BritDownUnder]

Ukraine will have trouble in making advances but they may not have to. To continue whittling down the Russians in their defensive lines and take advantage of the increasing public discontent in Russia. Then using asymmetric warfare to remove Russian military hardware from service and give the West an excellent weapon testing laboratory.

For sure, it's a war of attrition - but the availability of Ukrainian manpower might be the first thing to run out ?

Exhausted Ukraine struggles to find new men for front line:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68255490

A war of attrition, as has been pointed out from day one, favours Russia. They have greater manpower, more tolerance for casualties, greater manufacturing base (than Ukraine), greater bio-physical resources, greater tranactional relationships with others for their energy and mineral exports. Ukraine absolutely can't win a war of attrition without overwhelming support from allies to achieve a rapid victory. The west, politically, has little appitite for long, drawn out conflicts. We're sick of that kinda thing after Iraq and Afghanistan.

The Americans went into Vietnam thinking that too!

Those naval drones are going to be something in the next big power conflict. I hope BAE Systems has a hand in making them. I am interested in how they got them to the South of Ukraine to make the attack. Mother ship? Did they sail all the way on their own?

[Ralphw2]

The US is dropping hints that Russia is planning to deploy a new (space based, nuclear ?) Anti satellite weapon. This would definitely be very much a doomsday weapon, because using it against more than a handful of targets would generate debris fields that would generate cascades of satellite collisions leading to the end of space based communications or navigation or monitoring. This would collapse the global economy.

Some people are saying that this is the Democrats trying to scare the Republicans into supporting the Ukraine funding bill,

It would definitely be the start of a new cold war.

[BritDownUnder]

In my opinion the description of the weapon is probably wrong. It makes no sense to use a nuke to take out satellites as they are too far apart to be directly damaged by the fireball of a nuke. I do know that the electronics systems of satellites will be damaged by a nuclear weapon due to EMP which I understand has happened before with US outer space nuke tests in the 1960s. However such a weapon might not distinguish between Russian and other countries satellites unless they have deliberately hardened them.

Instead, I think a nuke in orbit would be used as an EMP weapon to attack countries. I would not be at all surprised if there are already nukes in orbit. Perhaps this US spaceplane - X37 I think - has already found one and the US will use such fears to 'take out' suspicious satellites owned by the usual suspects of current bad guys.

I'd be interested if anyone knows if a nuke can be detected by some means. Perhaps they create small quantities of by products of radioactive decay such as xenon that gives a clue to the presence of nukes.

[clv101]

I read Burning the Sky: Operation Argus and the Untold Story of the Cold War Nuclear Tests in Outer Space by Mark Wolverton a while back. Absolutely fascinating account of late '50s and early '60s nuclear testing in space (starfish prime, 1.4MT, 250 miles up - just where all the low earth orbiting stuff is today). Good amount on the politics, the secrecy, unilateral action and the first ideas of single action world changing events. It's clear that just a very small number of similar detonations could effectively disable ~all satellites. Dramatically asymmetric impact as the US is much more invested in satellites than Russia, dramatic impact but essentially 'clean'. All actual detonations could be above large oceans far from any nation states, all we'd see would be a lightshow.

What would be the impact of losing ~all satellites? Impact on some communications - but the vast majority of comms are via cable/fibre. Loss of spy satellites, loss of satellite TV - but still plenty of terrestrial broadcast. Loss of science missions. Loss of global positioning / timing systems. Short term impacts on telecommunications could be really significant.

How would / could the US respond?

[UndercoverElephant]

I read Burning the Sky: Operation Argus....

Just worth noting that even if there's no deliberate action, those satellites could disappear one day anyway, because of a cascade failure of the sort depicted in the film Gravity. I think the chance of that happening is real, and is presumably only going to increase as the number and age of satellites increases. We absolutely cannot rely on that technology surviving, and it might be one of the first big things we lose -- one way or another.

[adam2]

Clear video online of the ship sinking (or at least a similar ship sinking at some point in time).

These drones are having a similar effect as the airborne ones on the front line, in that they are both hard to spot and cheap enough to send a swarm to overwhelm the target. They do need some sort of radar or satellite coverage to help locate the target, but they have much longer range and so can make large areas no go areas for ships. They are big enough to sink medium sized ships (2000 tonnes) or damage larger ones, They will be vulnerable to jamming or GPS spoofing, but that is a constantly evolving area of electronic warfare. Once locked onto a target they probably can become autonomous and home in using cameras or infra red.

A well equipped Western navy ship with a motivated and well trained crew should be easily able to deal with drone attacks.
Step one-- keep a good look out, with night vision equipment if needed.
Step two, fire at the drone with a machine gun or larger calibre weapon. It should then sink or explode at a safer distance.
a future possibility would be man using a jetsuit to fly over the drone and drop grenades.
Here is a promotional video showing the naval possibilities of jetsuits. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suHOLFhbwsM

I suspect that the russian ships were not keeping an effective look out, and probably lacked enough serviceable night vision equipment.
The crew may be unwilling conscripts more interested in smoking and drinking than duty.
The officers may believe their own propaganda regarding the invincibility of the peoples defence forces.

[BritDownUnder]

These drones seem to be well designed so as to have a low profile in the water and maybe a low infra-red heat signature too making detection difficult. In some of the daylight videos there is clear evidence on shots hitting the water around the drone so at least some are detected. I think one had a helicopter shooting at one. Possibly a lot of rapid fire weapons on warships (even Western ones) cannot depress their fire to hit objects on the surface of the sea close to the ship where the gun is located, they are more designed for objects in the air. Probably these drones are covered in some kind of bullet proof protection as well.

I see that Navalny is reported as being dead having fallen ill in a Russian prison. I am not sure on his views of Ukraine but I think he would probably want Crimea as Russian as a minimum.

[adam2]

Ukrainian troops retreat from key town.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68323366

[invalid]

Town captured and prisioneros taken. Even after they sent the nazi brigade in to facilitate the retreat!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... city-falls

“There was zero visibility outside,” he wrote on Instagram. “It was just plain survival. A kilometre across a field. A group of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses.”

Some bluff about multiple Russian aeroplanes being shot down on the same morning all this is announced - i think most can see through the propaganda now.

[Ralphw2]

The final retreat may have had high Ukrainian casualties, but they will have been outnumbered five or ten times over by the casualties among the Russian invaders attacking the city.
Each and every one a personal tragedy and a direct result of Putin's war of conquest.

[UndercoverElephant]

Town captured and prisioneros taken. Even after they sent the nazi brigade in to facilitate the retreat!

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2024/ ... city-falls

“There was zero visibility outside,” he wrote on Instagram. “It was just plain survival. A kilometre across a field. A group of blind cats led by a drone. Enemy artillery. The road to Avdiivka is littered with our corpses.”

Some bluff about multiple Russian aeroplanes being shot down on the same morning all this is announced - i think most can see through the propaganda now.

Do you also believe Alexei Navalny was randomly taken ill on a walk and wasn't murdered by Putin's thugs?