Ukraine Watch...

[clv101]

... but demographics are not in China's favour, as their population is aging rapidly and the number of military age males in the population is falling rapidly.

True but a major military operation needs a few hundred thousand people, China have a few hundred million people of the right age. China will be able to mobilise significantly more folk than Russia have been able to and a fight for Taiwan would lean more on the navy and airforce than army, lowered manpower requirements compared with Russia / Ukrainian.

[Potemkin Villager]

There was a lot of US support for Afghanistan until there wasn't.

[Default0ptions]

There was a lot of US support for Afghanistan until there wasn't.

Same thing coming for the Ukraine

[Default0ptions]

Ralph, Taiwan is tiny and right on China’s doorstep. I think China is not in any hurry.

As the world coasts unstoppably down the road to localism with the end of cheap energy - Taiwan will have to deal with China.

[Ralphw2]

On the ground the war has gone very quiet in Ukraine. Not very surprising as it is the middle of winter, but the US suspension of military aid, particularly artilery shells, is forcing Ulraine on to the defensive, and the latest winter push by Russia seems to have fizzled out with even less gains than the previous one. Apart from some high value targets like AWACs aircraft and oil refineries, even the steady drip of Drone strikes videos on Russian hardware is slowing down, probably because even Russia is not stupid enough to try attacking in the depths of winter. The much anticipated Russian missile blitz on Ukrainian infrastructure has not come to much so far this winter, and the Iranian drone strikes seem to have been redeployed to the front lines. The cheer leaders are left replaying old videos of 2 US APCs destroying a Russian T90 top main battle tank with cannon fire.

The small quantities of high tech weapons Ukraine has used have demonstrated that in a straight NATO war with Russia, Russian weapons systems would be wiped out in a matter of days, and I suspect that the military assessment is that Russia is no longer a significant military threat as long as they are prevented from significantly rebuilding their military by sanctions , or by continuing the war of attrition. I would worry that the war will end up frozen as escalating tension in the middle east diverts the US stream of ammunition and missiles.

[Default0ptions]

A bit of a mess . . .

“Ukraine Indirectly Admits It Shot Down Large Russian Transport Plane, Possibly With Own POWs On Board”

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/russ ... r-belgorod

“The IL-76 Shootdown By A US Patriot Missile Could Lead To Zaluzhny's Replacement With Budanov”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... nt-budanov

[Ralphw2]

Of course this is all over the blog sphere. It does appear the Ukrainians shot down the plane. As yet, there is no independent evidence that there were POWs on the plane, a "list of POWs on board" that is circulating is easily debunked as at least 20 of the names on it are of POWs previously released and alive and well in Ukraine.

Evidence points to the plane flying away from Belgorod, not towards it, the videos of the crash site show no visible human remains, etc. However, the bottom line is that the Ukrainians were not informed that there were POWs on a military plane near the front lines of an active war zone. The plane was a legitimate military target, and in the Geneva convention it is the responsibility of each side to keep POWs safe and away from hazardous locations. Clearly the Russians did not do this.

Or there were no POWs on the flight.

[BritDownUnder]

Russia has previous form in disposing of prisoners. As someone who has personally visited the Katyn site near to Smolensk where Polish POWs were disposed of in WW2 I can imagine that the prisoners that were probably not on the plane will be disposed of in some other way in Russia's vast wastes.

No doubt the Russians will be as open about this plane crash as they were about the plane carrying the Wagner chief and do DNA tests on the bodies found in the wreckage. Looking forward to the open UN-led enquiry just like the did when the Malaysian airliner was shot down.

[clv101]

The latest attacks on US positions in Middle East are likely to lead to an unavoidable refocusing of US (and UK) attention to Ukraine's detriment. Convenient for Russia.

Hard to believe US has the appitite to engage Iran. More likely, under Trump at least, would be greater withdrawal from Middle East - can't attack what's not there.

[clv101]

The US is blaming 'Iran backed militia groups operating in Iraq and Syria'.

So Iran is getting specifically fingered for this? Iran is a legitimate target as they provided the weapons and funding?

Where does that leave Russia? Many thousands have been killed by US backed folk operating in Ukraine? The logic that says Iran is a legitimate target following this attack also suggests the US (and UK) is legitimate target for Russia.

[UndercoverElephant]

Convenient for Russia.

But that is the whole problem. That's why we are slithering towards WW3. Why should Russia back down now, when all over the world there are enemies of the US who see the current moment as potentially a good time to settle some scores? China, North Korea, Iran and all of the enemies of Israel. All strategic foes of the US, and for each of them the same calculation is in play. The US cannot take on all of them at the same time - not on its own, anyway. And the involvement of Israel in the situation makes it extremely difficult for the US to hold a western coalition together. Does Europe really want to get into a world war on the same side as an Israeli government that is committing genocide against the Palestinians? The European left will not tolerate that.

[Ralphw2]

winter is not being kind to Russia at present, and the cold is bringing out evidence that the Russian domestic infrastructure is about as well built and well maintained as its contemporary soviet era military hardware. The western media are picking up on stories of massive district heating systems breaking down in -30C weather, leading to entire neighbourhoods freezing solid. this is not particularly new or directly linked to the war, but the war has diverted at lot of resourses away from essential maintenance, and corruption has historically siphoned off money in this industry as much as the military.

Separately Ukraine has had some significant drone strikes on Russian oil and gas infrastructure, particularly the export terminals, with the aim of hitting Putin where it hurts - in his profits.

it is hard to get a feeling how much these events will dent Russian public support for the war, but independant surveys seem to show support isgenerally dropping. It will give Ukrainians a warm glow to see ordinary Russian citizens suffer the privations Putin inflicted on them last winter.

This may not change the final outcome of the war, but it shows that Russia is as much on the downward slope of the post industrial age as the West, and this war is steepening the curve of their decline.

[BritDownUnder]

The district heating system is certainly an Achilles Heel for Russia. Since they have made it clear they wish to make the Ukrainian people shiver by attacking Ukraine's power generation infrastructure it would make sense for Ukraine to attack it. The Russian's maintenance schedule makes such actions less necessary. Having a heating system that is centralised would make it more vulnerable to a single point of failure/attack. A downside to an otherwise quite sensible and economic heating system

[Ralphw2]

Russia and Ukraine have restarted prisoner exchanges, releasing about 200 POWs each. Russia has still not provided any direct evidence that any POWa were on the military transport shot down. A video of body bags near the crash site would be an obvious option. However, Russia's .assertions have done their job, with even the BBC sometimes forgetting to mention the lack of evidence when mentioning them.

[BritDownUnder]

Looks like another asymmetric win for Ukraine by sinking a Russian missile corvette with drone speedboats.

At the least it is a financial loss and also a loss of useful missile platform for Russia.