Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

The Rwandan president has now promised to return the money if no migrants arrive. This seriously cranks up the pressure on the tories, because Labour is now free to promise to scrap the scheme if no migrants have arrived by the time it wins the election, and can do so in the knowledge that this will result in a very large sum of money for them to use to deal with the problem more effectively. But the tories cannot u-turn and take the money back, because they are committed to trying to make it work.

[Mark]

The Rwandan president has now promised to return the money if no migrants arrive. This seriously cranks up the pressure on the tories, because Labour is now free to promise to scrap the scheme if no migrants have arrived by the time it wins the election, and can do so in the knowledge that this will result in a very large sum of money for them to use to deal with the problem more effectively. But the tories cannot u-turn and take the money back, because they are committed to trying to make it work.

Come on UE, as John McEnroe used to say - you can't be serious....?

Whatever happens, not a penny OUR £241,470,000 will ever be returned to us....
That's already been spent on life's little luxuries, both here and there...

[UndercoverElephant]

The Rwandan president has now promised to return the money if no migrants arrive. This seriously cranks up the pressure on the tories, because Labour is now free to promise to scrap the scheme if no migrants have arrived by the time it wins the election, and can do so in the knowledge that this will result in a very large sum of money for them to use to deal with the problem more effectively. But the tories cannot u-turn and take the money back, because they are committed to trying to make it work.

Come on UE, as John McEnroe used to say - you can't be serious....?

Whatever happens, not a penny OUR £241,470,000 will ever be returned to us....
That's already been spent on life's little luxuries, both here and there...

The president of Rwanda appears to be serious. He did not look like he was joking when he said it.

[Mark]

The Rwandan president has now promised to return the money if no migrants arrive. This seriously cranks up the pressure on the tories, because Labour is now free to promise to scrap the scheme if no migrants have arrived by the time it wins the election, and can do so in the knowledge that this will result in a very large sum of money for them to use to deal with the problem more effectively. But the tories cannot u-turn and take the money back, because they are committed to trying to make it work.

Come on UE, as John McEnroe used to say - you can't be serious....?

Whatever happens, not a penny OUR £241,470,000 will ever be returned to us....
That's already been spent on life's little luxuries, both here and there...

The president of Rwanda appears to be serious. He did not look like he was joking when he said it.

An off the cuff comment when he was being hustled down a corridor....?
Who says he will still be Rwandan President this week, next week ?
Maybe HMG could ask him to put it in writing

[UndercoverElephant]

An off the cuff comment when he was being hustled down a corridor....?

It was a clear, unambiguous statement about something important, and is being taken seriously by Labour.

[UndercoverElephant]

....I think the Tory campaign is going to be more effective than Labour's. It's going to be the most dishonest, manipulative, divisive, damaging campaign British politics has seen....

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/c ... r-BB1h8wVU

former cabinet minister has warned that a leaked document showing that Treasury officials have advised against tax cuts and proposed mass immigration to boost economic growth has tipped the hat to Labour's plans for government.

Yep. That is surely an outright lie. There is no way Labour is going to propose increasing mass immigration to boost economic growth. It would be suicidal.

[clv101]

Wow! That's the Express for you! I read a version of that story on Bloomberg earlier today and it was very different. NOTHING about Labour, and it talked about Sunak being advised 'high-skilled' migration was of more benefit than tax cuts. The Express have somehow lost the 'high-skilled' bit and made it about Labour.

[Mark]

Wow! That's the Express for you!

The Daily Suppress....

[UndercoverElephant]

Excellent analysis as to how much trouble the tories are in:

How Rishi Sunak is losing the right-wing media | Andrew Marr | The New Statesman

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_198uYWJcxo&t=364s

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/ ... s-32121361

Bombshell mega-poll predicts Tories will lose three-quarters of seats - full results and map

The MRP poll that surveyed 18,000 people projects Rishi Sunak will be left with just 80 MPs, which would be the party’s worst result in history and see 18 Cabinet ministers ousted

[clv101]

The poll by Find Out Now and Electoral Calculus predicts that Keir Stamer is heading for a Labour landslide with an unprecedented majority of 254 seats. This would be an even bigger victory than Tony Blair’s historic win in 1997.

Don't believe that for a moment! I'd be amazed if Labour's majority is over 100.
Some weirdness in that map, they have 'Preseli Pembrokeshire' and 'Carmarthen West and South Pembs' blue - which seems unlikely in general and a complete nonsense in a world where Labour see a majority of 254.

[Potemkin Villager]

It takes a lot for people to change their narrow/world view....
So......, no matter how bad the Tories have been, they will still get plenty of votes come a GE...
Labour's hope will be that a significant number will decide to either sit on their hands or vote Reform...

Dmitry Bykov writes:-

“ The Putin regime is all about stealing wealth that is buried under the earth. And one of the deepest buried resources in Russia is the profound conservatism of its people. Their lack of education, loyalty, resistance to change, ignorance and hostility to anything foreign or new is also a kind of oil, laid down in very deep and ancient layers. It is something valuable that can be mined and exploited like any other natural resource.”


I think it unlikely that Putin's Russia is the only place this oily metaphor applies.

[UndercoverElephant]

Some weirdness in that map

Yes. Some of the details are strange. Such as the SNP only losing 8 seats, and the tories doing best in those places on the east coast of England where Reform UK actually think they are in with a shout of beating them.

I think all of the pollsters are going to struggle to call this right. There's just too many unknowns compared to previous elections and compared to the sample sizes. The pollster I am most inclined to trust is Yougov.

[Mark]

I think all of the pollsters are going to struggle to call this right. There's just too many unknowns compared to previous elections and compared to the sample sizes. The pollster I am most inclined to trust is Yougov.

6-12 months ago, you were supremely confident of a massive Labour landslide and wiping the Tories off the map...

Recently we've had Labour abandoning some of their key policies (eg their £28B green investment fund), and the ongoing problem supporting Israel when a large chunk of their core support is pro Palestine. Plus all the gerrymandering with the constituency boundaries, means that it's going to be closer than you thought...

The bad news still keeps coming for the Tories though - the fact that 2023 is now officially recorded as a recession year won't help them mount their fightback... They surely can't keep blaming COVID..., although if Stumuz was still posting, he'd be blaming Gordon Brown.....

My take is that Labour will still win, but it's going to be close...

[UndercoverElephant]

I think all of the pollsters are going to struggle to call this right. There's just too many unknowns compared to previous elections and compared to the sample sizes. The pollster I am most inclined to trust is Yougov.

6-12 months ago, you were supremely confident of a massive Labour landslide and wiping the Tories off the map...

I still am, and not just because of the polls.

Recently we've had Labour abandoning some of their key policies (eg their £28B green investment fund), and the ongoing problem supporting Israel when a large chunk of their core support is pro Palestine. Plus all the gerrymandering with the constituency boundaries, means that it's going to be closer than you thought...

Who do you think pro-palestinians are going to vote for to make their voices heard? Ditto people who are disappointed about the green investment fund? These are all political calculations. Starmer is not being challenged from the left. He has got the left well and truly under control. That is why Labour remains so electable.

My take is that Labour will still win, but it's going to be close...

My personal prediction/guess is still that the tories will be lucky to hold on to 100 seats if Reform UK stands in all constituencies.