Gas supply crunch

[clv101]

I was commenting on Europe as a whole, not the UK as it'll be European weather that has the largest impact on gas prices. Warmer than average isn't saying much, this winter could be colder than last (across Europe) and still be warmer than average.

[Ralphw2]

Strike at Australian lng plants confirmed for September. Only a small rise in gas prices so far.

[adam2]

There is strong local opposition to plans for underground natural gas storage in Scotland. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-66671409
The latest legal challenge has failed, but it seems likely that more court cases or other enquiries are likely.

I am in favour of such storage so as to reduce national vulnerability to supply disruptions.

[kenneal - lagger]

It's not as if it hasn't been stored underground before!!

[Default0ptions]

It's not as if it hasn't been stored underground before!!

In fact I think we found it stored underground in the first place!

[kenneal - lagger]

It's not as if it hasn't been stored underground before!!

In fact I think we found it stored underground in the first place!

My point exactly!!

[Default0ptions]

Think that the shutting down of our coal mining industry in the 80s may actually turn out to be our salvation as we continue our way into the fuel crisis - because we left a huge amount of coal there that may well be crucial to our economy in the future.

I do realise that it’s not as simple as mooching back down there and digging it out.

There’s the problem of the mines now being all flooded and all the pit props being decayed to the point of uselessness and that trying to reopen the closed mines is likely to be vastly expensive.

But the coal is still down there - and we’re going to need it.

[Vortex2]

But the coal is still down there - and we’re going to need it.

This time however the pesky unions have gone and AI plus robotics have arrived.

Machines will recover the next set of coal.

[kenneal - lagger]

................
But the coal is still down there - and we’re going to need it.

We won't actually need it. It will just be a prop to prolong the unsustainable system of ever increasing economic growth until we destroy our environment and that destruction destroys us. Gaia will always win and we will become the filthy black, plastic riddled strata in many millions of otherwise clean strata!

[Default0ptions]

You’re quite right. It’s only a stopgap

[Mark]

Energy Outlook 2024 - Part 1 - Gas Storage
https://dallingtonenergy.com/market-com ... as-storage

As of 11 January we have just short of 25TWh gas in storage, whereas at the same time last year we had just over 21TWh gas in storage. Extra capacity at Centrica's Rough facility has helped us improve the GB gas storage capacity to the equivalent of 15 days average demand.

[adam2]

Certainly better than last year, but looking at ongoing events in the ME, I do not find "15 days of average consumption" in storage to be very reassuring.

LNG storage in above ground tanks is rather vulnerable to accidents or to terrorist attacks.

For both climate change and energy security reasons we need to significantly expand renewable electricity production, and also electricity storage. The proposed pumped storage scheme at Coir Glas in Scotland is a welcome step forward but more is needed.

[BritDownUnder]

I note that New South Wales in Australia is beginning to run out of gas and has just completed its first LNG import terminal at Port Kembla. The whole country of Australia is a net gas exporter but due to contracts and possible government incompetence and corruption it is difficult to ship gas from one part of the country to another without breaking various supply contracts.

[adam2]

Russian gas via Ukraine ceases. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c4glyjx9m71o

This will not DIRECTLY impact the UK as we obtained almost no gas from russia, it will however seriously affect some parts of mainland Europe, and will result in general tightness of supply and higher prices throughout the region, that WILL affect us.

Electricity imports are likely to become less available or more expensive. Natural gas is less used for electric power generation in Europe than in the UK , but it is the marginal fuel in many cases. Cheaper nuclear and hydroelectric power is fully committed under normal conditions and any extra demand such as producing electricity for export to the UK tends to be from burning gas.

[BritDownUnder]

Might affect Slovakia and Hungary but no doubt the Europeans will find a way for the UK to pay as they have with much else. I would have expected Slovakia to have a lot of hydro but Hungary might be in a spot of bother and may have to import. I recall there was a large hydro (in terms of disruption but not electrical output) scheme on the Danube that was shared between the two countries that was very controversial in the dying days of Communism.

Try to pronounce these two names. Gabčíkovo–Nagymaros Dams. Apparently the Slovaks have completed their part but the Hungarians did not.