Are we on the brink of an electric car revolution?

[Default0ptions]

“At the end of 2022 there were 32,169,932 cars licensed in Great Britain (and 33,187,308 in the UK).”

I don’t see any way we’re going to ever get 32 million plus EVs on the road.

[northernmonkey]

“At the end of 2022 there were 32,169,932 cars licensed in Great Britain (and 33,187,308 in the UK).”

I don’t see any way we’re going to ever get 32 million plus EVs on the road.

I agree. Not least because we would need a vastly more robust national grid to cope with the demand than currently exists, never mind where the electrical energy is going to come from to meet that increased demand.

[BritDownUnder]

You could say that you will need a second similar sized national grid to cope with EVs. Then another to supply the energy needed for industrial processes that currently run on coal, oil and natural gas.

I can see a law coming in that will require you to supply all the electrical power for charging your EV from your own sources such as household PV installation or roof mounted wind turbine.

[Ralphw2]

Just remember that EVs use about a quarter of the primary energy of an ICE car. Even if all new cars from today were EVs, we would still have a decade to build out the necessary electricity infrastructure. In energy terms it makes more sense to burn oil in a power station to charge evs, rather than process the same amount of oil into petrol to burn in ICE cars. The current government target is 80% of new cars being evs by 2030. Electrification of domestic heating using heat pumps is going to be a much harder target to reach. I have installed a 4KW solar system which I expect to produce 4.2MWh a year, which should reduce my net electricity demand (domestic + ev) by 75%. We face a lot challenges in the coming decades as we enter the decline phase of industrial civilisation, but evs are not the largest by any measure. Also, ev to grid charging is now in the prototype phase, the technology has been around for more than a decade. My ev holds enough electricity to run my house for a week when fully charged, so widespread adoption will sharply improve grid resilience as we move increasingly to renewable intermittant energy.

[Default0ptions]

I admire your optimism!

Personally I think we’re headed for a future with fewer and much more expensive cars that will present such problems charging that cars will only be an option for a few. But perhaps if only a few can afford the cars it won’t be enough to make manufacturing the cars economical at all!

[Ralphw2]

I think industrial civilisation is now so unsustainable and fragile that it will collapse before the transition to EVs is completed in this or most other countries. By then we will have far more and immediate existential threats to worry about. We all have to live with increasing cognitive dissonance between fighting for a transition to a less damaging way of life, and the realisation that such a transition is physically impossible because the scale of damage is already irreversible and the human tidal wave of population overshoot is already upon us.

[Default0ptions]

I think industrial civilisation is now so unsustainable and fragile that it will collapse before the transition to EVs is completed in this or most other countries. By then we will have far more and immediate existential threats to worry about. We all have to live with increasing cognitive dissonance between fighting for a transition to a less damaging way of life, and the realisation that such a transition is physically impossible because the scale of damage is already irreversible and the human tidal wave of population overshoot is already upon us.

I’ve always had a lot of time for Greer’s suggestion that one should ‘collapse now and avoid the rush’ as much as possible

[clv101]

Indeed, I'm almost a decade into CNAATR. Definitely a good move.

[adam2]

I disagree with those who state that substantial improvements to the national grid will be required to support EV charging.
A typical electric car or light van gets between three and four miles per KWH.
If driven for an average of 35 miles a day, that is about 10 KWH, per day per vehicle for charging.
Presuming that these vehicles are mainly charged at night whilst the owners sleep, then that is an average charging demand of about 1 kw per vehicle.
Supplying an extra 1 kw per household at night when other loads are limited is not hard.
Daytime charging is even easier, simply install more PV, either on the drivers home or elsewhere.

Domestic EV chargers are often about 7 kw and this loading should be allowed for when building a house and specifying the power supply thereto. However you do not need 7 MW for a thousand houses, they wont all be used at the same time.

[BritDownUnder]

Indeed, I'm almost a decade into CNAATR. Definitely a good move.

Most British politicians are probably in agreement with you and are actively pursuing this policy.

However you do not need 7 MW for a thousand houses, they wont all be used at the same time.

I think they called that 'diversity factor' when I was studying building services are part of my engineering degree.

[Default0ptions]

Some interesting points about cars, parking and potential for charging EVs:

https://www.racfoundation.org/wp-conten ... e-2021.pdf

[Ralphw2]

That report talked about properties which had offstreet 'parking potential'. Simply that there was a space as large as a Ford Fiesta on the property that was adjacent to a public road. This is not a very helpful definition. In my town many properties have one or more allocated parking spaces adjacent or near the property or a nearby block of garages. Most of these spaces and garages are not directly connected to the property and have no electricity supply. It is impossible to provide an electricity supply without the cable crossing someone else's property or allocated space, and no home owner will give a neighbour permission for such a cable because both their insurence would go up and their solicitor would tell them it would make their property much harder to sell. I ended up not buying a house because the allocated garage was 6 feet away from the end of the garden. This is a significant barrier to EVs in the UK.

[Default0ptions]

That report talked about properties which had offstreet 'parking potential'. Simply that there was a space as large as a Ford Fiesta on the property that was adjacent to a public road. This is not a very helpful definition. In my town many properties have one or more allocated parking spaces adjacent or near the property or a nearby block of garages. Most of these spaces and garages are not directly connected to the property and have no electricity supply. It is impossible to provide an electricity supply without the cable crossing someone else's property or allocated space, and no home owner will give a neighbour permission for such a cable because both their insurence would go up and their solicitor would tell them it would make their property much harder to sell. I ended up not buying a house because the allocated garage was 6 feet away from the end of the garden. This is a significant barrier to EVs in the UK.

Thanks Ralph! No EVs for any of us with unallocated on street parking.

[Potemkin Villager]

Tesla factory arson attack.

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/ ... ack-berlin

" Electric cars have come under increasing attack by environmental activists, in particular over concerns that their production leads to higher emissions than the manufacture of internal combustion engine cars and that the production and recharging of electric car batteries constitute environmental burden. In targeted attacks around Europe, including in Germany, electric cars have had their tyres slashed or deflated."

[Eclipse]

What is required is a standardised battery pack that can be swapped out easily and swapped between makes of cars as well. It's a similar situation to sustainable housing where generally a house is designed to look nice in the architects eye and then is sent to someone else to "make it sustainable." Cars, like houses, need to be designed from the first to be sustainable and we are not yet designing sustainable cars.

A sustainable car is not built from steel; is lightweight; is designed for a lower speed which will save weight as well as collision speeds are lower and weight can be saved from collision damage provision; lower speeds and lighter weight mean a smaller battery is required and weight is again reduced.

And why do so many cars require 4WD? 4WD cars should be subject to a additional tax, reclaimable by those few people who can show a need for one such as farmers and foresters.

There's a lot here that I agree with - especially with my army background (in my youth only) where I learned all about the military reasons for 'standards' - let alone economies of scale in the marketplace. Janus Australia use a battery standard to power our giant road trains for a 60 second battery swap. I'll copy in my usual blurb about them below - but while I think it's a great idea for cars from the repair and 'fast charge' aspect - would it limit battery innovation and car design?

Also - while we're talking about EV's as a replacement for oil - I feel a bit compromised because I'd like us to build a better CITY plan that doesn't require as many vehicles in the first place. As Alex Steffen said, it's not about banning cars but 'domesticating them' - building cities that just don't need as many. He said "My other car is a bright green city." Anyone seen this? 4 minutes - turn it up. https://youtu.be/pErk61t1N70?si=MA0Y8jdiDrZ1-eKq

JANUS FOOTNOTE
Australia’s new company Janus can convert HUGE 100 ton (or more!) trucks into full EV’s. Tesla's 40 ton trucks are good for driving within Australian cities, but at 40 tons are a little small for our 1000 km intercity highway routes that often use big 100 ton road-trains.. Instead of trying to “megacharge” the truck battery, Janus is a battery swap system. A guy on a forklift swaps the battery in a minute! This is more convenient for the driver if he’s not on his half hour break and needs a charge. It also means the warehouse can take their time charging the batteries. This is less stress on the batteries, and less stress on the local grid. Indeed during the day they can run 10 trucks from solar on the warehouse roof alone! The convert old diesel trucks. When one comes due for a major engine overhaul, many drivers are doing a Janus EV conversion instead. After a year they’ve recouped the costs. Then they save 60% on servicing fees and electricity is 1/3 the cost of diesel. Today the batteries can do 400 km before needing a swap. In the future, the truckie gets to enjoy new battery ranges and options as the batteries are automatically updated with the latest tech. These Janus trucks also get regenerative breaking, which slows the trucks going down hill while charging the batteries and avoiding wear and tear on the brake pads. The market is going to be SCREAMING for these trucks soon. It’s a thing of beauty - please watch the "Fully charged" 15 minute special. https://youtu.be/9eYLtPSf7PY
Facts and figures and latest truck conversion showroom https://www.januselectric.com.au/