Conservative party/opposition watch

[clv101]

I think the result will be a lot closer than the current polling suggests - but I still still a healthy Labour majority of ~50.
The reason for this is that I think the Tory campaign is going to be more effective than Labour's. It's going to be the most dishonest, manipulative, divisive, damaging campaign British politics has seen, but ultimately more effective for the Tories. Not enough to prevent a Labour win, but enough to prevent a 100+ majority landslide. A lot can still happen/change before we eventually get the election though.

That above was my gut feeling but it turns out there's some hard evidence for Tories out performing the polls in the run up to election!

These numbers were discussed on 'Rest Is Politics' podcast:
1979-83, poll leads six months before election Con +6%, but they won by 15% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
1983-87, poll leads six months before election Con +3%, but they won by 12% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
1987-92, poll leads six months before election Lab +5%, but they won by 7% on election day. +12% shift to Con.
1992-97, poll leads six months before election Lab +22%, but they won by 13% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
2010-2015, poll leads six months before election Con +1%, but they won by 7% on election day. +6% shift to Con.

Wow! Some have described this as a 'shy Tory' phonomina, but it's some pretty strong evidence for the Tories bettering the pollings results. However bad the polling is for the Tories, I think it's reasonable to assume they'll do ~10% better than suggested. Won't be enough to win, but will prevent collapse.

[Potemkin Villager]

Wow! Some have described this as a 'shy Tory' phonomina, but it's some pretty strong evidence for the Tories bettering the pollings results. However bad the polling is for the Tories, I think it's reasonable to assume they'll do ~10% better than suggested. Won't be enough to win, but will prevent collapse.

Gluttons for punishment or terrified of any change, even from the world beating abysmal record of the incumbents?

[Mark]

Wow! Some have described this as a 'shy Tory' phonomina, but it's some pretty strong evidence for the Tories bettering the pollings results. However bad the polling is for the Tories, I think it's reasonable to assume they'll do ~10% better than suggested. Won't be enough to win, but will prevent collapse.

Gluttons for punishment or terrified of any change, even from the world beating abysmal record of the incumbents?

For what it's worth, this is the way I very simplistically distill it down....
A Tory voter wants to see potential benefit to 'self', and probably his/her family, but rarely much further...
A Labour voter is more willing to also consider the potential wider benefit for community and society.....
I just see more people around with the former mentality than the latter...

It takes a lot for people to change their narrow/world view....
So......, no matter how bad the Tories have been, they will still get plenty of votes come a GE...
Labour's hope will be that a significant number will decide to either sit on their hands or vote Reform...

[UndercoverElephant]

I think the result will be a lot closer than the current polling suggests - but I still still a healthy Labour majority of ~50.
The reason for this is that I think the Tory campaign is going to be more effective than Labour's. It's going to be the most dishonest, manipulative, divisive, damaging campaign British politics has seen, but ultimately more effective for the Tories. Not enough to prevent a Labour win, but enough to prevent a 100+ majority landslide. A lot can still happen/change before we eventually get the election though.

That above was my gut feeling but it turns out there's some hard evidence for Tories out performing the polls in the run up to election!

These numbers were discussed on 'Rest Is Politics' podcast:
1979-83, poll leads six months before election Con +6%, but they won by 15% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
1983-87, poll leads six months before election Con +3%, but they won by 12% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
1987-92, poll leads six months before election Lab +5%, but they won by 7% on election day. +12% shift to Con.
1992-97, poll leads six months before election Lab +22%, but they won by 13% on election day. +9% shift to Con.
2010-2015, poll leads six months before election Con +1%, but they won by 7% on election day. +6% shift to Con.

Wow! Some have described this as a 'shy Tory' phonomina, but it's some pretty strong evidence for the Tories bettering the pollings results. However bad the polling is for the Tories, I think it's reasonable to assume they'll do ~10% better than suggested. Won't be enough to win, but will prevent collapse.

If Reform actually stand in all seats then this trend could change. If they don't then my expectations are roughly in line with yours. But if they do stand then it could have major consequences for the tories.

[northernmonkey]

None of this matters. Tory, Labour. Good cop, bad cop. Punch and Judy.

Circling the drain.

None of it matters.

[Default0ptions]

None of this matters. Tory, Labour. Good cop, bad cop. Punch and Judy.

Circling the drain.

None of it matters.

I agree. Absolutely nothing I hear from any of our current politicians goes anywhere near even beginning to try to address any of the issues involved in the predicament we are currently facing.

It’s no good just legislating for a better tomorrow without actually dealing with the nitty gritty of getting there.

If indeed getting ‘there’ at all is where we need to be.

[Mark]

northernmonkey, Default0ptions agree with you both, but a revolution doesn't look likely before the next GE....

So..., we can only deal with the situation as it presents itself at the time....
The choice is either validate a politician/party (most people these days choose the least worse option for them) or sit on your hands...
IMO the Tories have been so corrupt and so incompetent for so many years, they deserve to be actively voted out...

[UndercoverElephant]

None of this matters. Tory, Labour. Good cop, bad cop. Punch and Judy.

Circling the drain.

None of it matters.

Will you still say that if we get to the point where the electorate has had enough of the Punch and Judy show that it chooses to elect "far right populists" who don't believe in democracy at all?

[dustiswhatweare]

Tory voters are a funny old lot. They seem to go through life self identifying with a group of people who are acting consistently against the interests of those same people.

[UndercoverElephant]

Tory voters are a funny old lot. They seem to go through life self identifying with a group of people who are acting consistently against the interests of those same people.

Maybe half of them are sufficiently rich that the tories do act in their interest, or at least aspire to be in that category. The others appear to do it out of mindless political tribalism.

[northernmonkey]

None of this matters. Tory, Labour. Good cop, bad cop. Punch and Judy.

Circling the drain.

None of it matters.

Will you still say that if we get to the point where the electorate has had enough of the Punch and Judy show that it chooses to elect "far right populists" who don't believe in democracy at all?

Your naivety in believing that you currently live in a "democracy" where what people want is enacted on their behalf by their "democratically elected representatives" is quite touching.

But, I digress.

The electorate has already had enough. Or, did Brexit, Trump and a variety of other democratic rebellions all around the West over the last decade pass you by?

For the moment, the ruling class have managed to put a lid on them all.

For the moment.

Meanwhile, the political class, otherwise known as the management arm of the ruling class, are busy trying to convince us all it's BAU aided and abetted by a compliant legacy media.

So no, it wont last and yes, it will all likely end with men with mustaches and mountains of corpses. But it doesn't matter what I say or what you say. It's just what happens when things fall apart and when ordinary people are left with no option to get rid of a rotten tyranny other than by replacing it with another type of tyranny that is strong enough to enact their will.

So far as "democratic" politics goes, I'm just here for the entertainment now.

[UndercoverElephant]

Your naivety in believing that you currently live in a "democracy" where what people want is enacted on their behalf by their "democratically elected representatives" is quite touching.

And your failure to recognise that our flawed democracy is a million miles away from any form of authoritarianism reveals the true naivety in this situation. Taking our democracy for granted is extremely foolish.

Stop patronising me.

But, I digress.

Yes. Far enough that I didn't bother to read the rest of your post. Please don't turn this forum into another pissing contest like the rest of social media.

[Default0ptions]

Democracy - the best government money can buy.

[BritDownUnder]

Democracy - the best government money can buy.

You could always try the alternatives. It is possible to emigrate to Russia or North Korea and maybe even Eritrea.

As far as I know the candidate who gets the largest number of votes in most Western countries wins. Now how the candidates are chosen or are allowed to stand is another matter.

[Default0ptions]

BDU: “As far as I know the candidate who gets the largest number of votes in most Western countries wins”

“Absolutely nobody voted for Rishi Sunak to become Prime Minister”

https://metro.co.uk/2022/10/24/rishi-su ... -17625213/

Can’t resist two more:

“No matter who you vote for, the government always wins”

And:

“Everyone in the graveyard votes the same”