Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

The next turning point in this war will be when Ukraine finally gets to use F16s. Their inability to breakthrough has been due to a lack of air cover and the F16s will give them this. With F16s giving them air cover to the Kherson bridgehead they will be able to attack any Russian defence line and move their artillery across the river and also probably establish pontoon bridges: another game changer. There is an almost complete absence of defence lines in a north/south direction and this would enable an armoured attack which would decimate the Russian supply lines to the defensive lines to the north and cause a complete collapse of defence structures in Zaporizhia.

Ukraine has been steadily chipping away at Russian forces and Russian equipment is being degraded at a much faster rate than Ukrainian equipment. Ukrainian fighting and tactical ability is improving while Russian ability is not. A tipping point will be reached and a Russian collapse is then highly likely.

F16s will also enable the closure of the Kerch Bridge and with advances into the east bank of the Dneiper the Russian defence of Crimea will become completely untenable. Russia will have a choice between having their troops steadily annihilated or withdrawing them. I suspect that a partial annihilation will be required to force the high command into a withdrawal.

[clv101]

The article on Ukraine's F16 is worth reading to temper expectations:
https://www.rand.org/pubs/commentary/20 ... raine.html

[UndercoverElephant]

https://kyivindependent.com/francis-far ... ts-defeat/

There’s a reason Western officials don’t talk about restoring Ukrainian sovereign territory to its 1991 borders. The idea of Ukraine truly defeating Russia and threatening to return all occupied territories, including Crimea, is at the core of the West’s fear of escalation and possible nuclear use by Russia.

This fear is not completely unfounded. Yes, every Ukrainian victory has been a hit to Putin’s ego, and yes, every new Western system delivered to Ukraine makes him seethe a little inside. However, these “red lines” are nothing compared to the prospect of him losing everything: the war, Crimea, and his legitimacy as an empire-building tsar. Only at that point does the nuclear threat become real, but it is Ukraine that would be in danger, and Ukraine that is ready to take that risk.

If true, then Washington really doesn't want Ukraine to retake Crimea, because of fears of a nuclear response from Russia.

Not sure what to believe anymore.

[BritDownUnder]

Well there's a lot of reasons not to take Crimea.
First the Ukrainians have not gotten past the Russian defence lines North of Crimea. Then, to prolong the war with Russia as for about 5% of the West's defence budget they are eroding the Russian ability to fight and keeping them busy and altering their male demographic The West's military industrial complex is getting rich supplying Ukraine with arms paid for ultimately by loans from Asian countries.
I don't believe those redline arguments as all the West needs to do is to declare they will supply Ukrainians with nukes the Russians use nukes against Ukrainians.
A better strategy is for Ukraine to erode Russian manpower while becoming a de facto NATO member with its F16s as a start. That article says that F16s may only be useful for short range attacks.

There was a video purportedly of three Russians near to the contested town of Avdiivka. Two dragging their wounded comrade. Then they left him behind but not before taking his coat. Then one of the two was killed by a small drone and the last hurried off back to their lines.

[Default0ptions]

Worsening internal politics in the Ukraine:

https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/1 ... in-ukraine

[Ralphw2]

Reports today that Ukraine bombed a Russian warehouse containing Iranian drones with its own drones, and an explosion in a rail tunnel near the Chinese border claimed to be the primary route for Chinese (presumably military) imports to Russia, claimed as sabotage by Ukraine.

Not sure how true these reports are, or how big an impact they will have on the Russian offensive, but the pro Ukrainian bloggers are all over them.

Right now the weather is Russias biggest enemy, destroying coastal defences, damaging ships and bogging down land offensives. The steady stream of videos showing Russian hardware being damaged or destroyed by drones and missiles doesn’t seem to be slowing, so the sheer weight of numbers suggests that Russia must run short of offensive hardware at some point.

[UndercoverElephant]

Right now the weather is Russias biggest enemy, destroying coastal defences, damaging ships and bogging down land offensives. The steady stream of videos showing Russian hardware being damaged or destroyed by drones and missiles doesn’t seem to be slowing, so the sheer weight of numbers suggests that Russia must run short of offensive hardware at some point.

You'd think so, but people have said that before.

[BritDownUnder]

Right now the weather is Russias biggest enemy, destroying coastal defences, damaging ships and bogging down land offensives. The steady stream of videos showing Russian hardware being damaged or destroyed by drones and missiles doesn’t seem to be slowing, so the sheer weight of numbers suggests that Russia must run short of offensive hardware at some point.

You'd think so, but people have said that before.

Don't forget that Russia is a military that just happens to have a state. It is a thoroughly militarised state. Good thing is though that as long as it is bogged down in Ukraine it will be kept from military adventures elsewhere. Maybe a bit like the Soviets in Afghanistan.

I see that China is now being suspected for damaging the pipeline and cables in the Gulf of Finland by a cargo ship dragging its anchor along the seabed for several hundred kilometres.

[northernmonkey]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g5WYOv0Bk1w

[Ralphw2]

Russia’s aims in this war have not changed from day one, and that was to remove Ukraine from Western influence and to bring it back into Russian political and economic control, to effectively recolonise it. They will not stop fighting until they have either achieved that or have been militarily defeated on the ground. Ukraine , and I mean ALL the Ukrainian people, do not want to be re colonised, and they know how brutal that life would be, having seen 30 years of economic and social improvement, albeit despite a lot of corruption . The vast majority are not ready to stop fighting whatever disinformation the right wing in some countries are spreading, and they know that talk of peace deals with Russia would be meaningless whilst Russia still sees anything other than a demilitarised, compliant Ukraine as far as the Polish border as an existential threat, at least to Putin, and for the current leadership.

The initial invasion was a disaster for Russia, militarily and politically, but after a year Putin decided to double down, and put the entire Russian economy on a military footing, and massively ramp up weapons and ammunition production. The west made the major error of letting Russia dig in and set up WWI level trench defences, and Russia is now ready for a long war of attrition. The West talked up how much money they were spending supporting Ukraine, to ride the wave of public sympathy from almost all the European nations. In practice, they were just writing off redundant hardware which was being mothballed, and investing in replacement hardware, which is almost entirely being bought from the US MIC, which is booming.

Now the West faces the choice of ramping up its own production using hard cash which can’t be spent elsewhere, so that Ukraine can be supplied with the hardware it needs to break the trench lines stalemate in a couple more years. Russia has already got a years head start on re armourment, so it will not be quick or cheap.

[UndercoverElephant]

Now the West faces the choice of ramping up its own production using hard cash which can’t be spent elsewhere, so that Ukraine can be supplied with the hardware it needs to break the trench lines stalemate in a couple more years. Russia has already got a years head start on re armourment, so it will not be quick or cheap.

There is now a very real possibility that it ends in a military stalemate with the Dnipro proving an impossible barrier to both sides making any sort of major breakthrough. The problem is imagining how such a situation could translate into an actual conclusion -- a war that both sides actually agrees is over, rather than a long-term stalemate of the sort that exists on the Korean peninsula. There's no point in Ukraine accepting a peace deal which has very little prospect of actually delivering peace, and it is extremely hard to see why they could ever trust a Russian agreement to accept a border along the Dnipro.

I cannot see how any long-term resolution is possible while Putin remains alive, unless NATO significantly ramps up military support for Ukraine.

[invalid]

If the 'west' even ever had that capability, and it's clearly not even interested Anymore. This threads has been littered, since the start of the war, with delusions of western superiority.

[invalid]

The next turning point in this war will be...

So that makes the last turning point, not really a turning point?
It's over Ken. Stop clutching at straws Ukraine lost.

[clv101]

If the 'west' even ever had that capability, and it's clearly not even interested Anymore. This threads has been littered, since the start of the war, with delusions of western superiority.

Technically the west could have carried out several thousand air sorties in a week, destroying every bit of Russian heavy armour in Ukraine, and very rail track within 100 miles of Ukraine - compare the intensity of Desert Storm, 100,000 sorties, dropping 88,500 tons of bombs in a month. NATO absolutely does have technical superiority - political reasons, loss aversion (a few dozen planes would probably be shot down) & fear of nuclear retaliation led to the 'just enough' approach.

[northernmonkey]

If the 'west' even ever had that capability, and it's clearly not even interested Anymore. This threads has been littered, since the start of the war, with delusions of western superiority.

indeed.