Israel/palestine conflict, worsens.

[clv101]

Not sure why you'd store ammo near a hospital, but there you go.

To reduce the chance of the enemy targeting it?

I'm not ever sure what Biden's visit is hoping to achieve at this point.

Delay. If Blinken and now Biden hadn't been visiting the ground offensive would have commenced by now. He's buying time.

[Default0ptions]

“US Vetoes UN Resolution For Gaza Ceasefire As Biden Visit Fails To Calm Fears Of Wider War”

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... tal-strike

The Ukraine war looked scary for a while - it’s pretty much over now as ‘The West’ accepts its failure and abandons its funding of the Ukraine - and so we move on to the next crisis.

I have no idea how this Israel/Palestine clash will work out but it’s a great distraction.

[clv101]

Been reading up on Hezbollah, seems they are quite a force - especially knowing what we know after Ukraine about how vulnerable tanks are to well armed and trained infantry. Israel's going to have a big problem if Hezbollah attack with all they've got. It's also not obvious that a US carrier strike group will be very effective against that kind of enemy.

[BritDownUnder]

Been reading up on Hezbollah, seems they are quite a force - especially knowing what we know after Ukraine about how vulnerable tanks are to well armed and trained infantry. Israel's going to have a big problem if Hezbollah attack with all they've got. It's also not obvious that a US carrier strike group will be very effective against that kind of enemy.

Are Hezbollah well armed and well trained? What lessons did they learn from Syria? Do they have Javelins or other ATW? Or will they end up like the Wagner Russians in Bakhmut. I did notice that Israel got a few tanks knocked out by Hamas in the early stages of the attacks.

They could get a few kms into Israel and get massacred and Lebanon will get a bit more infrastructure destroyed in response.

One must assume that these possibilities are being mulled over in air-conditioned offices in the Bek'aa and Tehran right now.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Ukraine war looked scary for a while - it’s pretty much over now as ‘The West’ accepts its failure and abandons its funding of the Ukraine - and so we move on to the next crisis.

You are deep in delusion. Ukraine continues to make slow gains, and the west shows no sign of abandoning it. That war will continue until the Russian military collapses. I see no sign whatsoever of a failure of western resolve. Ukraine just started using ATACMS with great success.

Also, this is the wrong thread.

[UndercoverElephant]

I think Biden's visit was a near total failure. Allowing 20 trucks into Gaza won't make any difference to anything. That will keep 2 million people supplied for a few hours at most. There are only two ways to prevent a humanitarian catastrophe -- the first is to open the Rafah crossing to unlimited supplies coming in, and the second is to allow unlimited numbers of people to get out and set up a massive refugee camp in the Sinai.

Egypt is not going to permit the latter, because once those people leave Gaza there is no guarantee they will ever be allowed back in. Israel would use that as an opportunity to keep Gaza ethnically cleansed. That's why Biden has been asking the Israelis how they are ever going to get out of Gaza if they go in -- the obvious implication is that Israel has no intention of ever getting out of Gaza if it has gone in.

But if the former option is chosen and enough supplies are allowed in to keep 2 million people supplied with food and medicine then there is absolutely no way to prevent those supplies reaching Hamas. Not only does Hamas need some of those supplies, but it suits Hamas for there to be an unfolding humanitarian catastrophe because that's what will turn the world against Israel and bring Hezbollah and Iran into the war on their side.

It seems to me that by far the most likely path of events now is that only very limited aid gets into Gaza, and at best only foreign nationals will be let out -- and we don't even have any guarantee of those two things happening. I suspect Israel's ground offensive will either be put off indefinitely, or it will result in very high levels of casualties on both sides, making the situation even worse.

Worst of all, I can't see an ending to this. What is the long term fate of Gaza and its people? It feels like there needs to be some sort of definitive change in the region, and that will only come about via a wider war.

[Default0ptions]

The Ukraine war looked scary for a while - it’s pretty much over now as ‘The West’ accepts its failure and abandons its funding of the Ukraine - and so we move on to the next crisis.

You are deep in delusion. Ukraine continues to make slow gains, and the west shows no sign of abandoning it. That war will continue until the Russian military collapses. I see no sign whatsoever of a failure of western resolve. Ukraine just started using ATACMS with great success.

Also, this is the wrong thread.

You’re right, wrong thread. I’ll post my reply in Ukraine Watch

[clv101]

Worst of all, I can't see an ending to this. What is the long term fate of Gaza and its people? It feels like there needs to be some sort of definitive change in the region, and that will only come about via a wider war.

This is the end of Gaza - when the dust settles there won't be a community of ~2 million, independent people living there. It might be under heavy Israeli occupation/administration, it might be literally conquered and become part of Israel, but Gaza as it has been since the 2005 Israeli withdrawal is over.

In the medium to long term though, I think it's Israel that is untenable. Add a bit of climate change, remove a bit of American 'overwatch', factor in the 50:1 Arab:Israeli population ratio and I don't think Israel will still exist in its current form in 2050.

[UndercoverElephant]

Worst of all, I can't see an ending to this. What is the long term fate of Gaza and its people? It feels like there needs to be some sort of definitive change in the region, and that will only come about via a wider war.

This is the end of Gaza - when the dust settles there won't be a community of ~2 million, independent people living there. It might be under heavy Israeli occupation/administration, it might be literally conquered and become part of Israel, but Gaza as it has been since the 2005 Israeli withdrawal is over.

In the medium to long term though, I think it's Israel that is untenable. Add a bit of climate change, remove a bit of American 'overwatch', factor in the 50:1 Arab:Israeli population ratio and I don't think Israel will still exist in its current form in 2050.

I agree, though maybe not with the timescale.

[BritDownUnder]

Short term Israel will probably occupy the Northern part of Gaza to give them a bit more strategic 'depth' to prevent missile strikes.

Long term Israel will probably go the same way as the Crusader states. It will end in some kind of siege of a coastal city like the siege of Acre and then they all sail away to Europe and America to cause problems there. Or Israel will go nuclear and solve the worlds problems in one fell swoop. I think that is a hundred years away though.

[Default0ptions]

The conflict widens:

“ Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi Missiles”

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-b ... h-damascus

It seems that the whole region has had about enough of Israel and are quite willing to take pot shots at US assets in the arena too.

Interesting times :/

[clv101]

The US has A LOT of pretty soft targets throughout the Middle East. If they do engage militarily in support of Israel they are going to have huge security problems throughout the region. Biden's Oval Office discussion at 1am BST.

[Default0ptions]

The US has A LOT of pretty soft targets throughout the Middle East. If they do engage militarily in support of Israel they are going to have huge security problems throughout the region. Biden's Oval Office discussion at 1am BST.

I agree. They’re about to face a ‘put up or shut up’ moment and whatever the outcome - it won’t be good

[adam2]

The conflict widens:

“ Oil Surges After Report US Destroyer Shoots Down Multiple Houthi Missiles”

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/us-b ... h-damascus

It seems that the whole region has had about enough of Israel and are quite willing to take pot shots at US assets in the arena too.

Interesting times :/

This was not widely reported at the time, but is now on the BBC news website and other media.https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-67166863

[clv101]

Here are a couple of remarkable / horrific numbers.

Russia's 'full scale invasion' of Ukraine, where the brutality, the indiscriminate, nature of the terror attacks on civilian infrastructure has been highlighted, war crime accusations levied etc... there have been a total of 9,614 civilians killed (554 children), February 24, 2022 to September 10, 2023: https://www.statista.com/statistics/129 ... asualties/

Up to date figures from Gaza are harder to pin down, but this Reuters article says 3,800 killed and separately Save the Children a few days ago said over 1,000 children had been killed.

Two points. Firstly, given how much ordnance Russia has deployed, civilian deaths have been remarkably low compared to Gaza. If Russia had wanted to brutally, indiscriminately, kill civilians in Ukraine they could have killed an order of magnitude more. Secondly, wow, what are Israel doing if not brutally, indiscriminately, killing civilians? And they haven't even put boots on the ground yet. Their spoke people repeat on the hour, every hour that they don't target civilians, issue warning etc but come on, thousands of civilians in a matter of days?