Ukraine Watch...

[Ralphw2]

I think you are drunk.

In the news, Poland has announced it is stopping supplying weapons to Ukraine over its imports of grain to Poland. This is a major diplomatic rupture and a surprise that Poland is making such a strong response. It seems that Russias bombing of grain infrastructure is bearing fruit after all, in damaging the Wests political unanimity.

Good but long video on Russian and Ukrainian cultural memory and the Orwellian state of current Russian media

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W8BCzHU7kDI

[clv101]

More on the Poland decision here:
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/09/21/euro ... index.html

[UndercoverElephant]

And why no effective cyber attacks on UK infrastructure? Are GCHQ really that good and Russia (+hackers for hire) really that bad? Russia has form when it comes to polonium and nerve agents - but nothing? Have they attempted and been thwarted or simply not trying? We hear about the dirty (nuclear) bomb risk, but more subtle, more insidious attacks are possible - radioactive contamination of a city's reservoir?

I just find it surprising that UK supplied weapons, training, intelligence, sanctions etc - which have directly cost Russia many thousands of lives, many hundreds units of heavy equipment and billions of dollars, have elicited little more that 'stern warnings' from Moscow? How come?

I don't believe for one moment that Russia is being 'compassionate' towards the UK. More likely they are deeply afraid, as they were in 1983.

I suspect the traffic control outage might have been Russian sabotage. The official explanation -- that somebody uploaded an instruction to the computer which contained a typo -- is not credible.

However, even if we attribute that to the Russians then your question still stands, because even that isn't much more than a "stern warning" -- just a bit of short term disruption.

My guess is that if the Russians actually did something that caused outrage among the public in the UK then this would just make it politically easier for the UK government to provide even more support to Ukraine. Russia's best hope is that public support for the war in the UK and the US wanes, so the last thing they want to do is fuel it.

[Vortex2]

I just find it surprising that UK supplied weapons, training, intelligence, sanctions etc - which have directly cost Russia many thousands of lives, many hundreds units of heavy equipment and billions of dollars, have elicited little more that 'stern warnings' from Moscow? How come?

I don't believe for one moment that Russia is being 'compassionate' towards the UK. More likely they are deeply afraid, as they were in 1983.

However if and when Russia does feel that the game is almost up, then the UK will be first in line for a deadly smack.

[Ralphw2]

I Worked for and at the CAA for four years. It was entirely home grown incompetence that caused the system to go down.

I suspect that it has been quietly made clear through diplomatic channels that any attacks on critical infrastructure even if they look accidental will be assumed to be at Putin's personal command and will be treated as triggering a full NATO response, towards removing all Russian forces from Ukraine. Short of that, Ukraine will be given just sufficient support to regain it's territorial integrity and no more, and will not be bolstered to more of a military threat than it was in 2014.

Of course, it is entirely up to Russia to believe the ultimatum or not. Keeping a united public front between Western nations is a critical part of getting the message across that it is up to Putin to get out of this mess of his own making.

This is of course just my best guess.

[kenneal - lagger]

I heard that Poland was willing to deplete its forces to 66% of their capability by supplying their old Russian and Soviet equipment to Ukraine so that they don't render themselves vulnerable to Russian or Belorussian pressure. Until they receive the western replacements that they have ordered they won't supply any more. They have reached that level and stopping supplying Ukraine is being used to apply pressure to Ukraine over the grain supply problem. They are likely to restart supply once they have got western replacements and got an agreement with Ukraine.

It looks like Ukraine is close to an agreement but they do seem to have shot themselves in the foot over this. It is the first political error of Zelenskyy's presidency that I have noticed though.

[clv101]

Parliamentary elections will be held in Poland on 15 October, the level of Ukrainian support seems to be a big deal.

[Forever_Winter]

Parliamentary elections will be held in Poland on 15 October, the level of Ukrainian support seems to be a big deal.

Apparently according to the Western Disinfomedia, Storm Shadow missiles been used in Crimea. That's a big deal as the must be the long range variant. If true, then Crimea is now a target. Btw, Storm Shadow is an old system by today's standards....

[Forever_Winter]

I think you are drunk.

In the news, Poland has announced it is stopping supplying weapons to Ukraine over its imports of grain to Poland. This is a major diplomatic rupture and a surprise that Poland is making such a strong response. It seems that Russias bombing of grain infrastructure is bearing fruit after all, in damaging the Wests political unanimity.

Good but long video on Russian and Ukrainian cultural memory and the Orwellian state of current Russian media

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=W8BCzHU7kDI

DeafaultDrunkard - where's Invalid the other RussoRobot????

[Forever_Winter]

Interesting that Russia seems to be getting hit by high tech and low tech weapons. The biggest test if Donald Duck Trump gets elected and brings Ukrainian arms shipments to a halt...

[Forever_Winter]

Live report of Storm Shadow doing damage here:

[https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/ ... in-crimea/]

Could be false of course. Same as Putin still being alive

[Default0ptions]

Ralph: “ I think you are drunk.”

A reasonable assumption but I’m actually just bipolar and having a bit of a manic obsession with the situation. I’m sorry and I’m trying to keep quieter with posting here until I can get myself levelled out a bit more.

I’m very sorry. I do seem to have got carried away. I really don’t mean to offend and I’ll try to hold off posting until I have things more under control

[Default0ptions]

F Winter: “ DeafaultDrunkard - where's Invalid the other RussoRobot????”

One of the few things worse than trolling that’s actually sophisticated enough to be admired is trolling that is so pathetic it’s actually embarrassing to read.

You even managed to spell Default wrong.

If that felt like a constructive comment to you I hope that those surrounding you in times of trouble have more compassion than you have been able to show to others.

[Default0ptions]

Default0ptions:

In the news today:

1) The west is about to abandon and defund Ukraine,
2) Ukraine will then collapse,
3) Russia will have achieved its objectives.

1) The fragmentation of support for the Ukraine is now obvious and increasingly inevitable - it’s already happening
2) how long can the Ukraine carry on without it?
3) Russia has won

This is a best case scenario

Otherwise:

Russia seems to have been prepared to tolerate the UK missile strikes on Sevastopol. The danger here is that they get truly pissed off and take out Portsmouth or more likely a foreign British naval base in tit for tat

If NATO is going to go after Russian assets so blatantly, Russia will not and cannot sit idly by - these kind of attacks can only escalate to mutually assured destruction

Nato can either back off and declare defeat now or take the whole world down with it

No one wins a nuclear war

[Default0ptions]

I just find it surprising that UK supplied weapons, training, intelligence, sanctions etc - which have directly cost Russia many thousands of lives, many hundreds units of heavy equipment and billions of dollars, have elicited little more that 'stern warnings' from Moscow? How come?

I don't believe for one moment that Russia is being 'compassionate' towards the UK. More likely they are deeply afraid, as they were in 1983.

However if and when Russia does feel that the game is almost up, then the UK will be first in line for a deadly smack.

This is the highway to hell and it’s going to end very badly, very fast unless the west backs down and go and antagonise the Chinese instead.

But that’s going to end badly too.

Old Chinese proverb: man with p<nis in biscuit barrel not necessarily f*<ing crackers

If only the US had a sane presidential candidate there might be some hope.