Ukraine Watch...

[Default0ptions]

Thinking that you are so important that you can fix an international crisis simply because you’re ‘not buying that’
really takes the biscuit in ludicrous self importance.

Deliberately misunderstanding does you no favours, you know as well as anyone that my meaning was that I don't believe Russia saw an "existential crisis". Don't cheapen your arguments, especially to people who haven't called you a troll.

Point taken, Catweazle, and apologies for my intemperate language

[Default0ptions]

“ Really ? Russia considered the existence of some right wingers close to the border to be an existential threat ?”

The US has gone to considerable lengths trying to rid itself of left wingers south of it borders

But the real issue is nuclear capable weapons on the borders of Russia and the US.

Would the US be unconcerned by Russian controlled nuclear capable missiles in Mexico?

We know they found that Russian weapons in Cuba was worth taking the world to the brink

Why wouldn’t Russia feel the same threat in their own backyard?

[clv101]

Everyone talks about Cuban missile crisis - but 1983 was probably more risky and a lot more informative for today. We came extremely close to all out nuclear war largely because we, the west, suffered a major intelligence failure and didn't understand our opponent's position. I fear we are again failing to understand the Kremlin's position.

See '1983, World at the Brink' by Taylor Downing.

[Ralphw2]

Kadyrov, Chechen warlord, is reported to be in a coma. Poisoning suspected. If Putin keeps taking out his loyal allies at this rate, he might find someone brave enough to return the favour.

Also, more reports of Russian ships and boats damaged by drones.

[Vortex2]

Also, more reports of Russian ships and boats damaged by drones.

In future conflicts our warships will be the targets of these things.
What goes around come around.

[Vortex2]

Up to nine out of ten Ukrainian army draftees who joined in the last year have been either killed or wounded in action, a senior conscription officer in the country's Poltava Region said on Friday, according to local media.

https://ussanews.com/2023/09/16/ukraini ... n-officer/

Minor caution : originally from a Russian source.

[Vortex2]

I have come across an apparently reliable report discussing casualties in the war.

See: https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2307372120

Equipment losses on each side seem relatively balanced.

However far more Russians seem to be dying than Ukrainians : 5 to 1 at the one year mark.
Also more Russians seem to die than are injured.

Perhaps the Ukrainian treatment of the wounded is way better than the for the Russians?

Initially it's tempting to believe these figures ... but .. historically the 5-to-1 ratio is extremely rare.

I suspect that the figures are now more balanced, as the Russians seem to be getting their act together.
Also, the Ukrainian offensive seems to have chewed up huge numbers of their vehicles and troops.

All that said, the absolute numbers don't really matter : the side which still has a few tanks and few thousand soldiers available, when the other side finally runs out, will be the victor.

It will be interesting to see the 'true' figures when the conflict is over.

[BritDownUnder]

Everyone talks about Cuban missile crisis - but 1983 was probably more risky and a lot more informative for today. We came extremely close to all out nuclear war largely because we, the west, suffered a major intelligence failure and didn't understand our opponent's position. I fear we are again failing to understand the Kremlin's position.

See '1983, World at the Brink' by Taylor Downing.

Yes very close and saved by a rational Russian officer. However failing to understand paranoia of the other side is not necessarily an intelligence failure. If the Soviets had not acted in such subversive manners for the previous 50 years we would not have been in that position with the West under Reagan taking a firmer line just like Biden is doing now. Similarly Putin's paranoia is not the West's fault. Russia had many opportunities to build up a series of allies in the Commonwealth of Independent States but instead chose despotism, paranoia and gangsterism. It's all coming home to them now in the mud of Ukraine.

[Ralphw2]

It is widely reported that the death rate among Russian casualties is very high by the standard of any modern army because the Russian military invest very little in medical care, first aid training or evacuation. This seems to date back centuries and is down to the basic Russian belief in fatalism and heroism.

A five to one ratio is probably true in the offensive phase to take Bakhmut, because of the cannon fodder tactics employed. May be less now they are on the defensive, but the increased use of cluster bombs on the front lines by Ukraine will be having an impact.

Hard to know what the Ukrainian casualty rates are, as any Russian source can basically be discounted

[Default0ptions]

Brit: “However failing to understand paranoia of the other side is not necessarily an intelligence failure.”

Yes it is.

Sun Tzu:

“If you know your enemies and know yourself, you will not be imperiled in a hundred battles; ... if you do not know your enemies nor yourself, you will be imperiled in every single battle”

I think your dismissal of your enemies concerns as mere ‘paranoia’ is a classic example of arrogance, ignorance, and ultimately the proof that you are fallen foul of the absurdity of actually having come to believe without question the obvious absurdity of your own propaganda

And by the way, Nevil Shute’s book illustrates quite nicely why you down under still get to die in Armageddon:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_the_Beach_(novel)

[adam2]

Grain shipments resumed, via a slightly different route. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66835210

[Default0ptions]

Grain shipments resumed, via a slightly different route. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66835210

I think there’s quite something of a massive dissent in some of Eastern Europe about the huge volume of cheap Ukrainian grain devastating their markets.

This market distortion is not good and is yet another example of unintended consequences of all the ludicrous and self castrating wonderful sanctions

[Default0ptions]

Everyone talks about Cuban missile crisis - but 1983 was probably more risky and a lot more informative for today. We came extremely close to all out nuclear war largely because we, the west, suffered a major intelligence failure and didn't understand our opponent's position. I fear we are again failing to understand the Kremlin's position.

See '1983, World at the Brink' by Taylor Downing.

Clv. You are absolutely on the mark with this post. Putin did lay out his concerns regarding about European security guarantees in 2021 before this fiasco and slaughter began.

It REALLY DOESN’T MATTER WHAT THE WEST THOUGHT ABOUT IT. BUT TAKING IT SERIOUSLY WOULD HAVE SAVED HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS OF LIVES

Do you think any of the voters in European democracies “or the best governments money can buy’ would have ticked the box marked WAR WITH RUSSIA?

What would Europe have lost? But now we’ve lost a massively important trading partner - and dirt cheap pipeline gas

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... raine-nato

Our impoverished grandchildren will look back at the blinkered and blatant propaganda swallowers and wonder how they could have been so stupid.

I have no need for an axe to grind in any of this. Just wait and see how it’s all worked out in 20 years

[Default0ptions]

Another thing that irks me continually about those who blather on about “Russia’s Full Scale Invasion of Ukraine” is the complete lack of US style ‘shock and awe’ obliteration of Kiev and other major decision making centres.

Do you think Russia couldn’t obliterate Kiev?

Are you really saying Russia is failing because it’s chosen not to obliterate Kiev?

Do you lust for a complete Dresden horror on all major Ukrainian cities?

[Default0ptions]

It is widely reported that the death rate among Russian casualties is very high by the standard of any modern army because the Russian military invest very little in medical care, first aid training or evacuation.

Hard to know what the Ukrainian casualty rates are, as any Russian source can basically be discounted

But is not truth the first casualty in battle?

We can all quote statistics till we’re blue in the face but do you seriously think the Ukraine forces are going to push back the borders to pre 2014?

How about Russia retaking its founding capital of Kiev?

I’d courteously advise you to check the direction of the wind before - umm - debriefing yourself