Ukraine Watch...

[Default0ptions]

The next few weeks will show how fragile the remaining Russian forces are, and how much of the Ukrainian forces are still operational.

Yeah. You think? It’s going so well so far after all. Let’s see how this spring offensive (though it’s already autumn now) works out.

[Ralphw2]

I am not making any predictions, but Ukraine is reported to have breached the first and largest line of defences at one location, and bloggers are anticipating one last mechanised push south before the autumn muds arrive, in the next few days.

[BritDownUnder]

I don't think the mud will affect the drone warfare that much.

[Default0ptions]

The narrative seems to be changing somewhat. This is from The Telegraph (archive link to bypass paywall):

“Ukraine’s counteroffensive is stalling. The West must prepare for humiliation”

I don’t really agree with the article or even the headline but it’s an interesting shift in opinion from a mainstream uk news publication. It seems to be the beginnings of an attempt, and not a solitary one, to re-manage expectations.

https://archive.ph/YATEz

[Ralphw2]

A lot of analysts have been saying for many months that there was no guarantee that the summer offensive would be enough to get to the coast, let alone win the war. The offensive may not yet have gained much distance on the ground, but this is now a war of attrition, and it will be won by the side that can rebuild and resupply the hardware and ammunition the longest. Drones and precision artillery has been systematically degrading Russian hardware for months, and as far as I can tell, the Russians have used, worn out or lost most of their operational cold war reserves, and they cannot build new fast enough to sustain the rate of fire.

It is true that the West will need to continue supplying arms and ammo for another year or more, so I would expect Russian disinformation to move to the political sphere and try to sow division between nations.

That said, of course we mere humans cannot know how much we see is Western/Ukrainian disinformation. The West is mostly democratic, and is in the long term governments have to follow public opinion on spending big money to support Ukraine. The G20 meeting suggests that the Brics nations are looking after their own perceived interests, which might mean doing deals with Russia.

[Catweazle]

I think The West has to keep up the supplies to Ukraine, despite the wavering of India and others. This is not only about defending our borders, it's a historic opportunity to massively deplete the Russian war machine at a time when China is facing economic problems that might discourage it from upsetting The West. Russia will claim their military is back up to strength when this is all over, but in reality it could be a shadow of the former machine, and that suits me.

[UndercoverElephant]

The West is mostly democratic, and is in the long term governments have to follow public opinion on spending big money to support Ukraine.

I see no sign that public opinion in the west is turning against support for Ukraine. Most people seem to understand that Putin's mafia regime cannot be permitted to secure long-term territorial gains from a war motivated entirely by a desire for territorial expansion. The only thing that can change the current dynamic is if Russia were to begin making significant territorial gains, and I don't believe that is very likely.

[Ralphw2]

I am more worried about the US, they do not have Russia on the same continent, and the public awareness or interest in the war is much less. A lot of Republicans see any discretionary spending of government money as a crime against tax payers, even if in practice a lot of US military corporations are making huge profits

[BritDownUnder]

I hear the war has affected Russian weapons exports greatly too.

In the end the Ukrainians were a bit stupid to attack fixed defences with fewer troops. Better to deplete the Russians bit by bit even if it takes are few years. It will pay dividends in the future. Seems like NATO countries have spent about 5% of their annual defence spending to massively deplete the main focus of their defence spending. Money well spent or what.

In the event of a partial Ukrainian break through it would be interesting to see if they can turn Southern Ukraine into a centre of insurgent activity. Russia with all the minelaying and blowing up of the Nova Kakhovka Dam seem to have given up on using it for agriculture.

More ominously is the lack of support around the rest of the world for the West. BRICS seems to be forming up as a major opponent with only India seeing it for what it is mainly because they have a land dispute with another member. Brazil and South Africa seem to be blindly following Russia and China despite the economic damage caused to their manufacturing by Chinese exports and I would fully expect the new 2024 BRICS members to do the same.

[Default0ptions]

Well here’s how I see things playing out:

‘The West’ gets war weary and tails off all support for the Ukraine.

Russia ends up holding the territory it set out to protect.

The mainstream media somehow manages to portray this as a success for ‘The West’ and politicians and commentators ‘declare victory and retreat’

Zelenskyy gets thrown under a bus.

Europe suffers forever more from thinking that consumer economies can sanction producer economies. The EU economy is pretty much down the drain without cheap Russian gas.

(Still ominous silence in the press about who destroyed the Nordstream pipeline - cui bono there? Can you say America?)

Hundreds of thousands of lives lost for nothing.

Do please bookmark this post and get back to me in a year or so if I’m wrong.

[adam2]

Ukraine claims to have retaken gas drilling platforms of the coast of Crimea.
If these reports are accurate then this is a significant setback for russia, the platforms were most useful locations for radar equipment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/66779639

[Default0ptions]

Ukraine claims to have retaken gas drilling platforms of the coast of Crimea.
If these reports are accurate then this is a significant setback for russia, the platforms were most useful locations for radar equipment.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/66779639

Is Ukraine now sending the gas from these installations to needy European nations or have they just managed to trash them so no one benefits?

But maybe destroying some of the world’s last sources of fossil fuels is taken to be a ‘good thing’ now.

Russia almost certainly has complete satellite oversight of its own backyard in the Ukraine, so the supposed loss of ‘useful locations for radar equipment’ is at most a minor hindrance and at best just another rather transparent attempt by the BBC to put a positive spin on this whole fiasco

[Ralphw2]

Hundreds of thousands of lives lost in a futile attempt by Putin and his ultranationalist allies to regain the Russian lost empire.

In the context of limits to growth, just an early step down on the stair step decline into the post industrial age.

[Vortex2]

Yesterday I was having a quick look at what the West is sending to Ukraine.

It's clear that this is now a NATO v Russia war.
It's no longer about Ukraine.

The West is hoping/planning to wear down Russia through industrial might.
That worked in WW2 against Germany ... but Russia is a different story.

This will never give up .. and they will resort to nuclear weapons if they have to.
And guess who will be one of the first targets?

Yes, the UK because we have been highly involved in supplying and supporting Ukraine.

The US doesn't care about Russian or Ukrainian dead.
It won't care about British dead either.

The US also knows that Russia is not stupid enough to attack the US mainland.
And they won't allow Britain to launch nuclear weapons at Russia either.

This time around its the Ukrainians and the British, with buddies in some European countries, who are the "useful idiots".

I don't recollect voting for 18% food inflation or for a broken housing market or for uncontrolled mass immigration (600k per year) or for this highly dangerous war in a highly corrupt country far away.

[Ralphw2]

The countries that have taken in most Ukrainian refugees and proportionately given most weapons and money to the war are those closest to Russias borders, and especially those who were in the USSR within living memory, and Stalins terror within a generation of living memory. They know how little the Russian nationalists care for any human life except White Russian lives and some Slavs. They know they face death and terror if Russia is not pushed back to its internationally agreed borders.

No one is seriously talking about nuclear weapons, it will be game over for Russia if they use a single one.

The Ukrainians will not stop fighting even if the US and UK walk away