Ukraine Watch...

[adam2]

Russian bomber destroyed on the ground by Ukrainian drone. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66573842

[Ralphw2]

I am not 100% convinced that that image is not photoshopped. However, Russia has redeployed those aircraft to a more distant airfield as a result of this attack, so it was clearly at least sufficient to cause Russia to reduce the combat effectiveness of the remaining aircraft to protect them from further attack.

Also, reports today of another attack on another airfield hitting an “non operational airframe” according to the Russians.

Both attacks by quad copters, so probably Russian dissidents or Ukrainian special forces, as these have limited range.

[Ralphw2]

The US is telling its citizens to leave Belarus immediately, due to risk of war. Not that I expect many US citizens are in Belarus.

[Mark]

The US is telling its citizens to leave Belarus immediately, due to risk of war. Not that I expect many US citizens are in Belarus.

I've read rumours that the Russians/Belarussians want to open up a land bridge to Kaliningrad...
If I've heard about it, I'm sure the Poles have too, so they'll be ready and waiting...
& then NATO has to get involved too....

[adam2]

It is reported that the boss of the russian mercenary group has been killed in an aircraft crash.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-66599733

[Ralphw2]

Some Wagner linked channels are saying the plane was shot down by Russian missile, making it an assassination.

[adam2]

Bit tough on the other occupants of the plane, but for the wagner boss, tough. Bit surprised he lasted this long.

[Ralphw2]

Another video seems to show something like a missile trail heading up just before the plane is seen falling like a stone trailing smoke. It’s public tracking signal cut out instantly, indicating catastrophic failure.

Hard to see this as anything other than Putin’s revenge.

[clv101]

Bit tough on the other occupants of the plane, but for the wagner boss, tough. Bit surprised he lasted this long.

I read someone suggesting the other passages we're all senior Wagner so maybe as 'guilty' as he was? So what becomes of Wagner? New boss? Folded into regular military?

[BritDownUnder]

One has to wonder what was going through the Wagnerites heads as they were in their final flat spin to their doom. Maybe the plane got it tail shot off? One has to wonder whether the Wagner rank and file will now fight harder or 'softer' in the light of these events.

I don't see how it can be bad for Ukraine in the long term.

[clv101]

I wonder how much depth there is in Wagner below Prigozhin? It's a big organisation, who takes over? Will they fall into line with Kremlin now, or try and take revenge for his death? Where's the balance of loyalty?

[Vortex2]

Another video seems to show something like a missile trail heading up just before the plane is seen falling like a stone trailing smoke. It’s public tracking signal cut out instantly, indicating catastrophic failure.

Hard to see this as anything other than Putin’s revenge.

You can also hear the sound of what seems to be a warhead detonating a second or so later .. delayed due to the speed of sound.

[Ralphw2]

The US intelligence assessment is that there was no evidence of a missile, which makes a bomb the next prime suspect. Not that the real cause or method employed is going to change the political consequences one iota.

[adam2]

The mercenary leader is now confirmed as being dead in the recent air crash. He was long suspected to have been on board, but this has now been confirmed by genetic tests.

[Ralphw2]

So says the Russian MOD…

Anyway, back on the front lines, Ukraine appears to have broken through the first line of defences in one of the southern fronts, and is making steady progress at pushing back the defending forces along the trench lines to the east and west. Some bloggers are expecting that the second and third defensive lines will be significantly weaker, with fewer troops and land mines to defend them.

Hard to see Ukraine making it to the coast this season, but if they can gain another 20 miles and hold those positions over winter, then next year could see Ukraine isolate Crimea.