adam2 wrote: ↑06 Aug 2023, 13:56
The maritime drones used by Ukraine are a challenge to detect because they are semi-submersible. They run with the bulk of the hull below water and only the engine exhaust, air intake, camera, and antennae above the waterline. A very small target for manual observation or radar detection.
Possibly similar to the "narco-subs" used by south american drug cartels to import cocaine into the USA.
Interesting. I would have thought that having most of the volume of the boat underwater would increase drag quite considerably. Supposedly they 'sailed' all the way to Novorossiysk from Ukraine - about 700 km. Perhaps they have an economy mode where they can plane on the surface of the water for the first part of their journey when they are less worried about detection and then go mostly underwater for the last part of the journey when they get close to their intended target.
If the above is correct they are electrically powered.
Electric power would be fine for relatively short ranges, but I suspect that a petrol or diesel engine would be needed for ranges of hundreds of kilometers.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
One concern related to the apparent effectiveness of marine drones, is that the US with its vast blue water navy is the most vulnerable to this new weapon. Russia, is (was!?) primarily a land based military power. It seems the Russian marine casualties have all occurred with the crews basically asleep, in theory all these ships including (though not a drone) the Moskva, should have been able to defend themselves. It's telling that they didn't.
US carrier groups are probably a lot more competent!
The Moskva had long range and short range air defence missiles as well and close range cannons but didn't fire a thing. No evidence they even saw the incoming missile.
Sounds plausible that the drone would need a fossil fueled 'pusher' unit to get it near the target. Electric propulsion alone may have a lower IR heat signature. Looks like night attacks by these drones are better than daylight attacks too. I am curious to know what those baffles are on the upper surface of the drone. To keep water away or some kind of anti-radar/stealth thing? One might expect that washed up drone might be getting copied by China right now. As a shareholder in various weapons suppliers I would have to protest such IP theft.
As far as I know the Moskva radars were distracted in some part by some high flying Bayraktar drones that allowed an attack by sea skimming missiles.
Right about the US Navy. In a shooting war with China there could be a lot of smoldering hulks in the Pacific Ocean.
The pro Ukrainian bloggers are ecstatic at the prospect of Ukraine declaring an effective blockade on all Russian Black Sea ports, by declaring any ship near those ports a legitimate target. If they follow up and start sinking such ships, no non Russian ship would even attempt to visit the ports, as it would be impossible to get insurance. This would sharply reduce Russian exports of minerals, and in particular oil, reducing by an estimated 3 million barrels a day. This would lead to Russia having to shut in production, and shut in wells and pipeline in the Russian winter freeze and pipelines burst because of the water content in the oil. This would cause long term damage to Russian oil production.
The lost oil exports currently go to India and China, and they would need to source alternatives on the open market, with the relevant grades most abundant for export from the US.
This would result in a global bidding war with the US the biggest winners (overlooking the fact that the US is still a net importer of oil).
This analysis is a big stretch from two successful drone strikes without a single ship being sunk, but right now the bloggers need good news to help with morale.
At least 3 missiles fired at the Kirsch bridge today. Russia reports no damage, but no clear reports yet. Smoke rose from the bridge at several points, some could be smoke screens, or trails of defensive missiles fired by Russia.
There are now reports of slow but steady gains by Ukraine in the south. Also, more Western hardware, including Chalenger tanks, have been seen on the front lines, showing Ukrainian reserves have been deployed. The steady flow of drone footage of successful drona and artillery strikes on Russian hardware and forces continues. A small bridgehead across the full Dnipro river seems to have sustained about a week so far, although this is currently just a pinprick in Russian western flank. Today, a Russian helicopter was downed, a recently rare sight.
The war of attrition continues on both sides, but is slowly drifting from the media headlines.
The Ruble has fallen to below parity with the US cent, indicating that the sanctions are finally slowly squeezing the Russian economy. Not clear that UK or EU economies are doing much better.
US finally allows other countries to give or sell f16s to Ukraine. This won't help the current offensive, but indicates to Russia that the west is preparing for a long war.
Also, large fire at Russia"s main oil export terminal on the Black Sea. I suspect a drone attack.
I have recently heard very positive reports regarding the extent of Polish aid to Ukraine, both humanitarian help and military stores.
Humanitarian aid has consisted very largely of food, live beef cattle are very welcome as is tinned beef stew. Only very limited supplies of bedding and clothing as these items are expensive in Poland and supplies limited.
Building materials have been supplied, and hand tools.
Military help has consisted of MILLIONS of rounds of small arms ammo, and shoulder launched rocket systems, these weapons found wanting when used against tanks but very effective against buildings and light fortifications. Large caliber long range sniper rifles also gratefully received, these weapons have a reliable "first round kill capability" out to hundreds of meters and have killed at ranges of 2 kilometers. At close ranges they can penetrate light armour.
Another shipment from the UK was most welcome, mainly sheets and blankets suitable for hospitals, hospital gowns, wheelchairs and carying chairs.
"Installers and owners of emergency diesels must assume that they will have to run for a week or more"
