What can we do to change the minds of decision makers and people in general to actually do something about preparing for the forthcoming economic/energy crises (the ones after this one!)?
clv101 wrote: ↑18 Jul 2023, 16:47
When Labour have a 120 seat majority and a 5 year run in office I expect we'll see some radical policies - now is absolutely not the time to talk about it.
I still remember vividly the last time Labour won a landslide and for a very short period
actually felt that. maybe. things could only get better.
And how different things might have turned out if Blair had not decided to commit the UK to invade Iraq on a false pretence without bothering to consult anybody first. He hadn't made many mistakes until that point, but in the end his first big mistake turned out to be the thing which eventually brought him down, and for which he'll never be forgiven. He spent the rest of his premiership begging people to move on.
I suspect they are currently not talking about radical policies because they aint got any.
We'll see. We know they haven't got any money, but that doesn't make them completely powerless. They could, for example, legalise cannabis and tax it, and then use the money for investment in NHS mental health services.
If elected, Starmer's ratings will plummet as it becomes obvious he is clueless and in the pocket of all the usual suspects.
I honestly don't know how true that is.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
If elected, Starmer's ratings will plummet as it becomes obvious he is clueless and in the pocket of all the usual suspects.
I don't think he is clueless, or slimy and duplicitous in the Johnson mould, but then I don't think he is a revolutionary either. I think that is needed and that is where he may not necessarily fail, but he certainly won't shine.
It is looking increasingly like tomorrow is going to be a historic disaster for the tories. It is the beginning of the end of tory government for quite some time, I think. Their only chance of winning any of these three by-elections is if enough anti-tories assume they are going to lose and don't bother turning out to vote against them. Combine that with the vanishing probability that they are going to be able to justify tax cuts and we're looking at the tories being reduced to around 1997 levels (165 seats). The only question is whether Sunak bites the bullet, cuts his losses and calls the election next summer, or whether he puts it off to the bitter end in December, hoping for a miracle. If so they may struggle to make it into triple figures.
Starmer just isn't scary enough to most tories. And he's not going to make any unforced errors.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
UndercoverElephant wrote: ↑19 Jul 2023, 10:40
Starmer just isn't scary enough to most tories. And he's not going to make any unforced errors.
To paraphrase well known political scientist Boy George " he's a man without conviction".
Starmer certainly is very chameleon like to a degree that even the maestro Blair didn't quite achieve.
If the Tories hold Uxbridge tomorrow it is a sign that English voters have totally lost the plot and it is time
for any sane person to emigrate.
Overconfidence, not just expert overconfidence but general overconfidence,
is one of the most common illusions we experience. Stan Robinson
Mark wrote: ↑12 Jun 2023, 21:03
FWIW, my predictions:
Mid Bedfordshire - CON HOLD
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - LAB GAIN
Selby and Ainsty - CON HOLD
Anyone else ?
Labour will walk Uxbridge and South Ruislip.
The Tories are going to try to turn the by-election info a "referendum" on the expansion of London's ULEZ zone into outer London which comes info force on 29th August. Plus, there are also some who think that BoJo's been hard done to...
The outcome might be a lot closer than you think....
Somerton and Frome - LD GAIN
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - CON HOLD
Selby and Ainsty - LAB GAIN
The Tories are going to try to turn the by-election info a "referendum" on the expansion of London's ULEZ zone into outer London which comes info force on 29th August. Plus, there are also some who think that BoJo's been hard done to...
The outcome might be a lot closer than you think....
Somerton and Frome - LD GAIN
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - CON HOLD
Selby and Ainsty - LAB GAIN
Shows what we know....
Nothing remotely surprising there. The two seats the tories lost were shockers, from their point of view. Pretty much as bad as it could have been. Their retention of Uxbridge and South Ruislip tells us something else we already know: most people don't accept ecological policies which negatively effect their own freedoms and living standards. The result doesn't help the tories at all, because everybody knows it was all about the ULEZ policy, and if Sunak comes out as strongly against the expansion of ULEZ then it will just lose him votes elsewhere. The only exception to this is other tory constituencies on the fringe of London which might fear that ULEZ is coming for them too, and there just aren't enough of those to be nationally relevant.
I guess it might lead to Labour reversing their ULEZ expansion policy, which would be a bad result for everybody.
"We fail to mandate economic sanity because our brains are addled by....compassion." (Garrett Hardin)
ULEZ impacts a small, but significant percentage of the population, however it will be more established and people will be used to it by the time of the next GE... Sadiq Khan might suffer for it at the forthcoming Mayoral election though...
The more I read about ULEZ the weirder it seems. Mandated by central government - left to Labour mayor to deliver, knowing how unpopular it would be. Nice political trick.
clv101 wrote: ↑21 Jul 2023, 09:52
ULEZ was a bad name. Should have been something simpler like 'clear air area' or 'low pollution zero'. Something harder to oppose.
But yes, campaigning against environmental measures is fertile ground, sadly.
The tory voters of Uxbridge are prepared to put their present conveniences before the health and future prospects of their children.
clv101 wrote: ↑21 Jul 2023, 11:22
The more I read about ULEZ the weirder it seems. Mandated by central government - left to Labour mayor to deliver, knowing how unpopular it would be. Nice political trick.
To the people it comes across as a money grab by greedy/useless/corrupt/woke local governments, no more, no less.
I just bought a house within short walking distance from the town centre. All those out of town supermarkets etc will have to relocate to town centres once people can’t afford a massive EV and the insurance companies won’t insure them anymore because a trivial fender bender means you have to write off the entire vehicle once the battery array is even mildly compromised
Default0ptions wrote: ↑21 Jul 2023, 15:28
I just bought a house within short walking distance from the town centre. All those out of town supermarkets etc will have to relocate to town centres once people can’t afford a massive EV and the insurance companies won’t insure them anymore because a trivial fender bender means you have to write off the entire vehicle once the battery array is even mildly compromised
Or to put it another way:
Я только что купил дом в неподалеку от центра города, в шаговой доступности от главной площади. Все эти супермаркеты и прочие объекты за городом будут вынуждены переехать в центры городов, когда люди уже не смогут позволить себе огромный электромобиль, и страховые компании больше не застрахуют их, потому что даже незначительное столкновение может привести к полной потере автомобиля, как только батарейный массив хоть немного повредится.
Well that’s just stupid. Do you think that advances your argument in any way? Is your position so weak that you’re unable to discuss it seriously?
Are you afraid of engaging intellectually?
Do tell me how you see anyone winning in this situation and what it means for either side to win.
Do you really think that Ukraine can push it’s Spring Offensive until the border is back to pre 2014? How would that work?
If you thought Afghanistan was anything but a rout and a senseless waste of human life I’d like to know why you think this is better and why you want to go on with the killing.
My son in law saw some of his friends die in Afghanistan and still wonders why. The Afghan war was ultimately pointless. Perhaps you can tell me why this Ukraine stuff is worth more people dying for?
