Food shortages

[mossy]

It is nice to find a local uk board.

The one thing that is worrying me the most post-peak is food shortages resulting from the over reliance of foreign grown food, especially in England.

I am originally from Australia and I always tried to buy local food, usually directly from farms or markets. Arriving in London I struggled to do this, fortunately supermarkets label the origins but it is still really hard to get a variety of fruit and vege. I usually was stuck with cabbage, potatoes, parsnips from France, mushrooms from ireland. Fortunately there are plenty of breads, milk, and cheeses.

I am now living in Northern Ireland and am finding it much easier over here. Yesterday I came home with cabbage, turnips, beetroot, broadbeans, leeks, potatos and carrots. The only fruit I could buy was strawberries and blackberries.

England really needs to start investing more in locally grown food, especially considering the (growing!) population size. I don't understand why the government does not encourage people to buy locally grown food. This food is fresher so it is healthier for us as well.

I do not fully understand the policies behind this, but as I am I right in thinking they are actually planning to undermine the local farmers by reducing subsidies?

[DamianB]

http://www.powerswitch.org.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?t=70

There's a discussion of post-peak food issues on the thread above.

My understanding of the single farm payment is that its geared towards the environment and decoupling subsidies from production levels. I doubt that the current bias of the largest susbsidies going to larger farmers will change.

http://www.ecdel.org.au/pressandinforma ... June03.pdf


I think that the stranglehold that the supermarkets have over UK farmers through their buying power is more important in terms of getting more local production, than the subsidy structure.

It's more likely that rising fuel costs will lead to more local production - I was astonished to read recently (ASPO Aug newsletter) that 25% of all jet fuel production is used to move frieght and would guess that food is a large proportion of this. 20% or so of traffic on the roads is food distribution related.

[peaky]

I don't understand why the government does not encourage people to buy locally grown food. This food is fresher so it is healthier for us as well.

There are many things the government does and doesn't do that I don't understand

This country's (and government's) love of supermarkets is a big factor. All they are interested in ios profit and as 80% of food is bought in supermarkets they have a huge amount of power to get what they want. They want huge, reliable suppliers of 'visually perfect' food and if they get that cheaper from Argentina/Spain/Chile/NZ/Kenya then they will. Stuff local food

There's a bit of a revolving door between the food industry and the government (Lord Sainsbury anyone?) so don't be surprised. As a start, if it's technically possible, then resolve to never buy from a supermarket ever again. It's difficult, but for most people it's the mental shift that's the hard one. I've done it now for 2 years and only buy in local shops and local food wherever possible. It's a good feeling.

[skeptik]

They want huge, reliable suppliers of 'visually perfect' food and if they get that cheaper from Argentina/Spain/Chile/NZ/Kenya then they will. Stuff local food.

That will probably change quite rapidly. The supermarkets are *always* looking at the bottom line. When transportation cost becomes a far more significant fraction of total cost than at present, their buyers will swiftly seek out and sign up local suppliers where they can. Some already expensive exotic foreign produce will nodoubt dissapear completely.

The days of the New Zealand apple are numbered. I'm sure that over the next decade there will be a resurgence of locally produced fruit and veg within easy trucking distance of all the major cities of the Uk.

As a general point, I think once the penny has dropped and business realises that transport is going to be a significant and perpetually (for the forseable future) increasing cost which outweighs cheap labour available abroad, the trend towards globalisation will come screaching to halt and go rapidly into reverse. Businesses will put a large effort effort into minimising the length of their supply and distribution networks.

Of course this depends on the downslope of the global Hubbert curve being gentle enough to allow time for people and corporations to adapt...

[beev]

I'm sure that over the next decade there will be a resurgence of locally produced fruit and veg within easy trucking distance of all the major cities of the Uk.

Hooray for that! One reason why the onset of peak oil is a good thing. We will all be eating fresher food, the air will be cleaner and the roads and airways will be less clogged.

[snow hope]

Recently I have eaten apples from S Africa and Tangerines from Ecuador. Not sure where the Bananas came from. I will be looking very carefully at where my food comes from before I buy it from now on.

[Totally_Baffled]

Generally the UK is pretty good in food self sufficiency and there is spare capacity.

There is one major downside.

We import a substantial 90% of Fruit!

Link 1
Link 2

However, we are a net exporter of wheat, oats and barley. The UK also produce enough vegetables on 150,000 hectares to meet 70% self sufficiency!(the UK has 1.5 million hectares of set aside!)

Looks not bad on the meat side as well, the figures are still pretty high considering the shit we have had to deal with(BSE and foot & mouth)

Feel free to disagree but I reckon looking at these stats we should have more than enough to feed ourselves? And surely the EU certainly has the ability to feed itself?(france has 3 times more arable than the UK, hermany 2.5 times and Spain 2.5 times for example)

It is a shame the self sufficiency figures are being allowed to slide. I guess at least the land being set aside is getting a rest?

33% of our food goes in the bin and self sufficiency figures are based on 3500 calories per person....... (men need 2500 women need 1500 no wonder we are all fat b*****s! )

[AllanH]

Interesting figures, unfortunately we don't know whether they'll hold good in the future, what with growing climate change & its effect on UK agriculture.

http://www.nfuonline.com/stellentdev/gr ... 106998.pdf

AllanH

[Joe]

Interesting figures, unfortunately we don't know whether they'll hold good in the future, what with growing climate change & its effect on UK agriculture.

http://www.nfuonline.com/stellentdev/gr ... 106998.pdf

AllanH

Not just climate change. Hasn't agribusiness pretty much f*cked up the soil to the point where the majority of the world's arable land will deliver significantly lower yields without gas-derived fertilizers?

Sure, organic & permaculture methods can significantly slow soil depletion to the point where it can almost be considered negligible, but could we improve the soil on that land that has been seriously damaged quickly enough and on a large enough scale (during a period of increasing extreme weather where flooding & erosion become growing threats to soil health) to avoid widespread hunger? I'm not so sure.

[Totally_Baffled]

Hi Joe

I think you raise a very valid point. Soli health/erosion is another issue that is against at the moment.

I guess there would have to be a transition away from nitrogen/ammonia/synthetic fertilizer over a number of decades as it becomes more expensive/less available.

If TPTB dont out the wheels in motion to start phasing out synthetic fertilizer and restoring humus back to topsoils long enough before the synthetic stuff starts to run out , I think we will be in super deep shit. Although I think it be anything upto a century before we lose the ability to make nitrogen fertilizer ( it can be made from gas , coal or even by joining nitrogen from the air with hydrogen from water?)

Having said all that, I think a number of areas in the world could be screwed anyway. We cant feed the worlds population now let alone when the EU, Canada, US (the large food exporters) are in recession/depression.

What happens to the likes of Niger, Ethiopia, Sudan , etc etc when the west is in economic dire straits....I dread to think...

[Pixie]

I think we will be in super deep shit.

Well that's OK then - loadsa shit is just what the depleted soil needs!

[MaxWahlter]

http://www.postcarbon.org/node/1235 is the link to an article about local food systems. These systems put food on your table direct from the field.

But more importantly, a lot cheaper as the system functions as a food club and you skirt round taxes, health and safety.

As oil peaks prices of tranport and heating (25% of househld expenditure) and food (30%) will increase. people will not be able to buy so much in supermarkets and wil be growing their own due to economic pressures.

Or why not get involved in a food system so you need to work less?[/url]

[Pixie]

The supermarkets are *always* looking at the bottom line. When transportation cost becomes a far more significant fraction of total cost than at present, their buyers will swiftly seek out and sign up local suppliers where they can.

The trouble with buying 'local' food from a supermarket is that it still travels a long way - even if the farm is next door to the supermarket the produce still has to go to the central distribution centre first and then back to the supermarket, so it may be originally local but it comes with a lot of food miles and isn't as fresh as you might think.