Conservative party/opposition watch

[UndercoverElephant]

FWIW, my predictions:

Mid Bedfordshire - CON HOLD
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - LAB GAIN
Selby and Ainsty - CON HOLD

Anyone else ?

Labour will walk Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The other two are too close to call. A lot of tory voters will stay at home. They are the kind of seats that failing governments lose in by-elections and then win back at the following general election (even if they lose it).

[UndercoverElephant]

Agreed, if the conservatives lose either of those seats they might as well just close the party down.

I think the tory party might need to split. The current internal warfare isn't just the result of the unprofessionalism of Johnson and incompetence of Truss. There are fundamental ideological differences which are only going to get worse as the general situation deteriorates. Labour has already been through this process, at least for now. The Corbynite left has been put back into its box for a generation at least. But the tories are fundamentally split on whether toryism should be one-nation, pro-European and globalist, or F--k-the-poor, anti-European and post-globalist.

[automaticearth2]

Agreed, if the conservatives lose either of those seats they might as well just close the party down.

I think the tory party might need to split. The current internal warfare isn't just the result of the unprofessionalism of Johnson and incompetence of Truss. There are fundamental ideological differences which are only going to get worse as the general situation deteriorates. Labour has already been through this process, at least for now. The Corbynite left has been put back into its box for a generation at least. But the tories are fundamentally split on whether toryism should be one-nation, pro-European and globalist, or F--k-the-poor, anti-European and post-globalist.

.

Agree with all this UE. There has always been this dichotomy of the Europhile Tories (think Michael Heseltine and Ken Clarke) and the anti-European ones (think John Redwood and pretty much most of the 1922 Committee). This was never seen as major issue while things were OK(ish) i.e. the party could continue being 'Tory'.

However, with deterioration of the current political climate, and the conclusion of Brexit (or lack thereof - take your pick), the party is just about to tear itself apart along the lines you've mentioned. When you hear Boris and Sunak slagging on another off in the public domain, you know thnigs are pretty dire.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Sunak has until Jan 2025 before he needs to call an election? If so, he can probably hope the economy improves in this time (probably unlikely), or just bite the bullet and say 'f**k it I've had enough' and go for an earlier date. Either way, the Tories are toast in their current form.....

[dustiswhatweare]

What a bloody shower they are. Political entropy at it's finest.

[UndercoverElephant]

Agree with all this UE. There has always been this dichotomy of the Europhile Tories (think Michael Heseltine and Ken Clarke) and the anti-European ones (think John Redwood and pretty much most of the 1922 Committee).

The 1992 committee is all the back benchers, so that isn't quite right. They are also split.

I'm sure I read somewhere that Sunak has until Jan 2025 before he needs to call an election?

In reality he won't want to call it any later than September next year. The colder and darker it gets, the less inclined people are to go knocking on doors. I am expecting the election in June. I don't think they've got much to gain by delaying it.

[Mark]

FWIW, my predictions:

Mid Bedfordshire - CON HOLD
Uxbridge and South Ruislip - LAB GAIN
Selby and Ainsty - CON HOLD

Anyone else ?

Labour will walk Uxbridge and South Ruislip.

The Tories are going to try to turn the by-election info a "referendum" on the expansion of London's ULEZ zone into outer London which comes info force on 29th August. Plus, there are also some who think that BoJo's been hard done to...

The outcome might be a lot closer than you think....

[PS_RalphW]

Bojo would have had a 90 day suspension if he hadn’t walked. He repeatedly and knowingly lied to parliament. Bojo says the report is a pack of lies.

[UndercoverElephant]

Bojo would have had a 90 day suspension if he hadn’t walked. He repeatedly and knowingly lied to parliament. Bojo says the report is a pack of lies.

The bizarre thing is that his supporters are convinced he can come back from this. They are expecting a tory defeat at the general election, and they think he stands a good chance of being re-elected tory leader. All that will indicate to the electorate is that the tories have not learned any lessons from all this.

[clv101]

Is this the end of Johnson's political career?

The report, written by a majority tory committee has now been approved by a majority tory parliament with only six, or seven (they can't even count) voting against it.

Let's recall the key points from the report, which MPs have just approved:

It concluded the former Prime Minister Boris Johnson deliberately misled MPs when he repeatedly told them Covid rules had been followed at all times in Downing Street

The committee found he had "personal knowledge" of breaches of the rules and guidance in No 10, and decided it was "highly unlikely" Johnson had really believed the assurances he gave at the time

That meant Johnson had committed a "contempt" of Parliament because his misleading reassurances stopped MPs from holding him to account

Initially, the committee was minded to recommend a suspension of more than 10 days - enough to potentially trigger a by-election, meaning he could be voted out by his constituents

But following Johnson’s attacks on the committee’s integrity, that recommendation was hiked up to 90 days

It was also recommended that he not be given a pass for ex-MPs allowing unlimited access to Parliament

[PS_RalphW]

Over 200 Tory mps refused to back the report, and 7 voted against it.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fw ... lection%2F

Tories face biggest by-election defeat in British history in Nadine Dorries seat
Survey by Opinium finds Labour would overturn a 24,664 Conservative majority in Mid Bedfordshire, held by the Tories since 1931

This could be special.

[dustiswhatweare]

Nadine has gone total fruit loop and even staunch Tory voters have noticed. She isn't representing her constituents in any way. She appears to have gone full reversion to being a child, not a nice one at that.

[UndercoverElephant]

Chris "the groper" Pincher to be suspended for 8 weeks. Which means there is going to be yet another by-election in a safe tory seat.

[PS_RalphW]

However, in Cambridge city council, the Tories have just won their first seat in a decade, as a protest vote against plans for congestion charging.

[Mark]

Chris "the groper" Pincher to be suspended for 8 weeks. Which means there is going to be yet another by-election in a safe tory seat.

& we're still waiting for Nadine....
There are a few of her books going for 50p at my local charity shop....
Maybe when she's free of all her responsibilities, she'll write a bonkbuster about BoJo....