Ukraine Watch...

[UndercoverElephant]

I still don't believe Russia is going to use nuclear weapons. However, there are now reports that they are planning to blow up the nuclear power plant in Zaporhizia, and that, unfortunately, is all too believable.

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkrainianConfl ... ys_russia/

[BritDownUnder]

Putin has shown to be a bit less secure than he was supposed to be.
Maybe he will sleep a little bit less easily knowing that his soldiers might not protect him from a rival.

Yes. Nobody was all that interested in stopping Wagner, and the people welcome them like liberating heroes. That combined with the speed with which he ran from Moscow has made him look weak and probably feel weak.

I wonder if any more Novichuck is being cooked up at the moment. Ready to be painted on Byelorussian door knobs perhaps?

He'll now try to make sure Prigozhin is assassinated, but I don't think he can recover from this in the long run. His days are numbered.

Yes the fact that people in Rostov did nothing to stop Wagner is a bit telling.

Internal strife in Russia is manna from heaven for Ukraine. Perhaps they should be a bit more careful in loss of their own troops lives in the recent offensive they are conducting. Let things cook a bit.

[PS_RalphW]

There are reports of a small Ukrainian bridgehead across the Dnipro river at the Antonovski bridge. It is small but appears to have been there for 3 days. It has not been dislodged, reportedly because requested air cover did not arrive, presumably it was too busy being shot down by nominally Russian troops in Russia.

This is not significant in itself, but if it holds and is overlooked for long enough, it might break through any local defences that weren’t swept away by the dam destruction, or redeployed to the southern front, and allow a pontoon crossing to be established and for a daring breakout attack on the weakly defended western Kherson front. If this worked it could bypass the entire Russian southern defensive line.

Obviously Russia can see the danger as well, so the Ukrainians are trying to stay below the radar, using the Borg defence strategy of not being an immediate threat and so too much trouble to snuff out whilst more pressing issues are being dealt with.

It may come to nothing, but it is worth watching. One more major distraction like last weekend maybe all they need

Putin seems to be backtracking on the amnesty he gave Prigozhin yesterday. I am not remotely surprised, I don’t think Putin has ever honoured any wartime deal or ceasefire in 20 years. Prigozhin must have known that when he struck it, so I suspect he has already left the continent, or is doing his damnedest to do so. I wonder if he could do an Idi Amin and cut a deal with Saudi Arabia.

[kenneal - lagger]

Can't post the link...keeps saying "requested page could not be found". Being reported from multiple sources though.
.................

I've tried to log onto the admin panel to delete the spam posts and got the same message.

[UndercoverElephant]

Can't post the link...keeps saying "requested page could not be found". Being reported from multiple sources though.
.................

I've tried to log onto the admin panel to delete the spam posts and got the same message.

Sounds like it has been hacked.

[clv101]

My view is that Ukraine is spent as a fighting force. We've seen all we're going to see from their 'counter offensive'.

The next escalation is going to involve closer NATO involvement.

I now think it more likely than not that we see a 'nuclear incident' this year.

The situation is going to get a lot worse before this is done.

[kenneal - lagger]

Can't post the link...keeps saying "requested page could not be found". Being reported from multiple sources though.
.................

I've tried to log onto the admin panel to delete the spam posts and got the same message.

Sounds like it has been hacked.

We've got a massive amount of crap on the site at the moment and we can't get onto the Admin panel to ban the posters and quickly remove their rubbish posts.

[kenneal - lagger]

My view is this Ukraine is spent as a fighting force. We've seen all we're going to see from their 'counter offensive'.

The next escalation is going to involve closer NATO involvement.

I now think it more likely than not that we see a 'nuclear incident' this year.

The situation is going to get a lot worse before this is done.

From what I've seen from commentators on Youtube, Ukraine still has a number, some say 9, of their newly trained and equipped assault brigades still in reserve. None of the Challengers nor the French tanks have been used yet and very few of the Leopards which would agree with the numbers of brigades in reserve.

[UndercoverElephant]

I now think it more likely than not that we see a 'nuclear incident' this year.

Do you expect them to blow up the nuclear power plant if forced to withdraw from that area, or do you think that is propaganda (not even sure which side would promote this is a lie...either could)?

[clv101]

No idea, but a nuclear incident could be a psychological trigger for increased NATO involvement, would increase public support IMO. It would serve both Ukraine and the western players who see this proxy war as the means to defeat Russia.

[Vortex2]

No idea, but a nuclear incident could be a psychological trigger for increased NATO involvement, would increase public support IMO. It would serve both Ukraine and the western players who see this proxy war as the means to defeat Russia.

"What's our oil and gas doing under their steppe?"

[johnny]

No idea, but a nuclear incident could be a psychological trigger for increased NATO involvement, would increase public support IMO. It would serve both Ukraine and the western players who see this proxy war as the means to defeat Russia.

"What's our oil and gas doing under their steppe?"

You don't have that much to speak of really, under any steppe, and the UK could barely stop Argentina all those years ago, the UK is hardly in a position to do much of anything unless you can convince the Americans do it for you and then allow you to claim credit for it.

[UndercoverElephant]

the UK could barely stop Argentina all those years ago

What planet are you living on?

[BritDownUnder]

...under their taiga, or tundra, to be more accurate, for Russia's remaining reserves. I think there is some supposed frackable resource in Ukraine around Kharkov.

As for Argentina I think we had a discussion with an earlier incarnation and he did not understand why the UK did not have 12 aircraft carriers.
Something to do with the UK economy being 10 times smaller than the US economy and hence can not really afford them.

In my mind the Ukrainians are a bit silly to waste their efforts on infantry offensives against the Russians when they can use artillery to wipe them out slowly in their foxholes. Keep on filling those graveyards and the more likely they will go home eventually.

[Mark]

...under their taiga, or tundra, to be more accurate, for Russia's remaining reserves. I think there is some supposed frackable resource in Ukraine around Kharkov.

Wherever it is, it needs to be left under the steppe or the tundra or the North Sea...

Heard a talk the other day from Prof. Bill McGuire (author of Hothouse Earth and others....)
To paraphrase - the average global temperature pre industrialisation was 15degC - we've added nearly 1.5degC - if we burn all the known reserves of fossil fuels, we'll add 16degC taking us to 31degC, but the planet will be toast well before then...

Guess his figures for total fossil fuel reserves would need much closer inspection, but if he's anywhere near right (and I'm sure RGR/Johnny will have a view), we're not going to 'peak' any time soon...