Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

............................ What would be the point in retaking territory that Russia can't hold on to?
.................

Pride? Political survival?

[UndercoverElephant]

............................ What would be the point in retaking territory that Russia can't hold on to?
.................

Pride? Political survival?

I think it will/would be a bit late for that by then.

I am no expert, but it looks to me like the key to all this is Crimea. Ukraine is not going to stop fighting until it has either retaken Crimea or no longer has any hope of retaking it, and that will be the point the peace negotiations start, even if Russia has not been completely kicked out of the eastern Donbas. But I don't see how Putin can survive if Russia loses Crimea, and I can't see how Russia could retake it either.

[UndercoverElephant]

Multiple reports of Russians placing "retreat blocking units" behind the front line, to shoot any soldiers that try to retreat:

https://ukrainetoday.org/2023/06/12/exc ... etreating/

If there's any morale left at all, this destroys it.

[invalid]

Even Western officials admitting now heavy casualties and a lack of Ukrainian progress, so things must be bad. Or is this in itself another master feint? I wouldn't want to be dying out there in a senseless suicide mission for NATO, myself.

[UndercoverElephant]

Even Western officials admitting now heavy casualties and a lack of Ukrainian progress, so things must be bad.

Heavy casualties were to be expected. Accurate information about progress is not expected, because of operational security. What is for certain is that the Ukrainian side is not executing its own retreating conscripts.

[Mark]

Even Western officials admitting now heavy casualties and a lack of Ukrainian progress, so things must be bad. Or is this in itself another master feint? I wouldn't want to be dying out there in a senseless suicide mission for NATO, myself.

The fighting reminds me of WW1...., which was supposed to be the war that ended all wars...

Huge losses in men and machinery for tiny gains in territory - as the aggressors, the Russians clearly need to be pushed back, but they've had a long time to dig in and have probably learnt some lessons from their losses so far...

It seems to be a battle between Russia's superior troop numbers and amount of equipment vrs Ukraine's superior modern weapons, strategy, motivation and training.... Russia clearly can't advance, as we've seen in Bakhmut - early indications are that Ukraine can't break through either, but they've only been trying for a few days...

[PS_RalphW]

The weapons systems are very different from ww1 but the end result is similar. The key to the current stalemate is air power. Both sides have large numbers of spotter drones, highly accurate artillery and missiles (although Russia has quantity to Ukrainian accuracy) but Ukraine has almost no aircraft left, and Russia has kept most of its modern jets at a safe distance.

The other advantage Russia has is brutality. Ukraine is fighting to save the lives and livelihoods of its people, the very land they are fighting over. Russia is happy to destroy and kill wantenly, both the human and natural wealth of the land they are attacking, and to treat their own soldiers as literal cannon fodder, pushed over the front lines to expose the enemy positions as they are mown down.

I do know, if a modern Nato airforce was deployed on the Ukrainian side, the Russian forces would crumple in a matter of days. The disparity in technology and fire power is that large.

[clv101]

I do know, if a modern Nato airforce was deployed on the Ukrainian side, the Russian forces would crumple in a matter of days. The disparity in technology and fire power is that large.

Indeed, I said months ago that 'we', not NATO as we'd never get all members to agree, could end this in days with ~1000 sorties and cruise missiles to destroy a sizeable proportion of Russian kit and logistics in Ukraine. US, UK, Poland, Baltic States could form an air-strike coalition. But we don't do it, we're continuing to do 'just enough' to avoid Ukrainian defeat. We certainly aren't doing enough to enable Ukraine to regain all the lost territory. Why not? Probably only lose a dozen planes.

Likewise, Russia could end this in days with a few small 1-5 kt nukes, Kyiv and a handful of military targets. I don't believe US or UK would reply in kind, nor do I think we would launch a conventional attack on Russia itself - fearing that if Russia just nuked Kyiv, London could be next.

Prolonged, ground war seems to be what both sides are comfortable with.

[Mark]

= stalemate

Peace will eventually be negotiated, but only after many thousands more have died and a lot more destruction wrought...

[PS_RalphW]

'we' have probably not joined openly on the Ukrainian side because Russia has probably mined every undersea cable and pipeline in Europe, and repeatedly demonstrated that it will blow them up of pushed too far.

Russia is nihilistic.

[UndercoverElephant]

Russia threatens to declare war on the world if it "suffers a strategic defeat".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65932700

Except that is already assured. Russia is already reduced to the status of a client state of Beijing.

[kenneal - lagger]

Russia threatens to declare war on the world if it "suffers a strategic defeat".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65932700

Except that is already assured. Russia is already reduced to the status of a client state of Beijing.

As Ralph said, "Russia is nihilistic!"

Not content with having failed to bully Ukraine, then European countries, then NATO, they are now trying to bully the whole world to get their way!! Childish doesn't come close!!

I hope Zelenski asked Ramaphosa is South Africa would cede a part of South Africa to Britain if we invaded again and took control of part of the country. That is what the Africans are asking of Ukraine.

As for Ukraine running out of weapons, Russia is still doing a pretty good job of resupplying the Ukrainians! I read that Ukraine had received another batch of T80s.

[UndercoverElephant]

Can't post the link...keeps saying "requested page could not be found". Being reported from multiple sources though.

The head of Russia's Wagner mercenary group has accused the country's military of launching a strike on his troops, claims that mark an astonishing escalation of infighting inside Russia.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said a "huge number" of his fighters had been killed and that he would lead a "march for justice" to exact revenge.

Start of a civil war?

[clv101]

There seems to be a lot going on in Russia tonight, military police raiding and locking down Wagner sites seems significant! Not clear Prigozhin has any degree of popular support in Russia and physically his outfit is wholly dependent on Russian military. Any coup would be most likely from the political right of Putin, the folk suggesting Russia hasn't been tough enough in the war, Prigozhin isn't courting them.

My expectation, nothing much will change in the coming week - except Prigozhin may be attested/replaced.

[UndercoverElephant]

, nothing much will change in the coming week -

That timescale isn't all that important.

except Prigozhin may be attested/replaced.

You think he is replacable?