Ukraine Watch...

[kenneal - lagger]

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Either way, Russia is entirely responsible for the collapse, either through ineptitude, or more likely malice.

Russia is responsible because Russia started the war. No war, no dam collapse.

[UndercoverElephant]

Multiple reports of heavy fighting now, and slow but steady Ukrainian advances. It is only a matter of time before a weak point breaks.

[clv101]

Nate Hagens on Ukraine this week:
https://youtu.be/cqgNltPFY5s

I have also read the US is losing patience with this conflict and want a decisive resolution soon rather than later as they see Iran (and Israel's response) and China/Taiwan as more pressing geopolitical concerns.

[PS_RalphW]

Some videos of Leopards and Bradley’s and other western equipment being hit by artillery in the central southern front, which is probably the main area of attack. Images of poor tactical formations of the armour are worrying, when Russian armour did this they were decimated. (Actually much more than decimated, which means 10% losses).

This is definitely the start of the main counter offensive, but many battalions will still be held in reserve.

[UndercoverElephant]

I have also read the US is losing patience with this conflict and want a decisive resolution soon rather than later as they see Iran (and Israel's response) and China/Taiwan as more pressing geopolitical concerns.

Ukraine is not going to want this to continue through another winter.

[UndercoverElephant]

Nate Hagens on Ukraine this week:
https://youtu.be/cqgNltPFY5s

I fundamentally disagree with this. Firstly, I don't believe there is any path for Russia to be re-accepted into global civilisation as we've known it since the end of WW2. That era is finished. Secondly, I still don't believe the Russians are going to start a full-blown nuclear exchange which is guaranteed to wipe their country off the map. Literally -- if that is the way it goes then Russia will be carved up and cease to exist, and I think they know this. But most of all I disagree with his suggestion that the "Putin is a thug. Russia must be stopped." messaging is mere narrative. History has shown that when there's somebody like Putin about, you must not sue for peace. You must not give in to the thuggery. Russia must not be allowed to permanently annex Crimea as some sort of price for peace. That is not a path for long-term security. On the contrary, it will embolden China in its bid to annex Taiwan and put future security in even greater jeopardy.

I believe the best outcome in terms of the future of the world is a decisive Ukrainian victory, and I remain optimistic that this can happen without the Russians using strategic nuclear weapons.

[clv101]

I believe the best outcome in terms of the future of the world is a decisive Ukrainian victory, and I remain optimistic that this can happen without the Russians using strategic nuclear weapons.

It's interesting, yes, I probably agree that a decisive Ukrainian victory is the best outcome - however, I think the chance of that is very slim. My gut feeling is that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are spent and collapse is imminent. I don't think the much vaunted 'Spring Offensive' will amount to much and that Russia has succeeded in making this a war of attrition, a war Ukraine can never win.

The big question for the next month or two is how the west is going to respond to a Ukrainian military collapse - will we see tens of thousands of Polish troops bolster the front line? Other Baltic states too? Will we see US pilots enter Ukrainian airspace?

What I find fascinating about this, is that you and I with similar access to information/propaganda have come to quite different conclusions. You are optimistic about a decisive Ukrainian victory whereas I think the AFU are close to collapse.

[Catweazle]

If Ukraine has limited men available to pour through a breech in the Russian lines then perhaps it would be better to let the Russians dig in defensively and continue to use the accurate and long ranged weapons they are receiving to target those defences. At least they'll know exactly where Russian troops are. If the war of attrition exists then Ukraine needs to use both men and weapons much more effectively than Russia because the numbers are so unbalanced, one way of levelling the field is to employ the superior western surveillance and long range weaponry to continually hit high value targets on or behind the stationary Russian defences. Putin can't hide those losses from his people indefinitely, pressure from home might force him to declare a victory and leave Ukraine, having "de-nazified" it.

[PS_RalphW]

The Ukrainians claim to have intercepted a Russian discussion which confirms that they blew the dam, at least partly by mistake. The intercept implies they wanted an explosion, possibly just in the turbine hall, to send a warning to Ukraine, but the pre laid mines in the main dam also went up. This matches the report I saw yesterday.

[Catweazle]

The Ukrainians claim to have intercepted a Russian discussion which confirms that they blew the dam, at least partly by mistake. The intercept implies they wanted an explosion, possibly just in the turbine hall, to send a warning to Ukraine, but the pre laid mines in the main dam also went up. This matches the report I saw yesterday.

That's one way to silence all the people asking why the Russians would destroy their own water supply.

[UndercoverElephant]

What I find fascinating about this, is that you and I with similar access to information/propaganda have come to quite different conclusions. You are optimistic about a decisive Ukrainian victory whereas I think the AFU are close to collapse.

Neither of us knows what is really going on. That is the nature of warfare. So it comes down to instinct, and we all have to wait and see what happens.

My instinct is being driven by the feeling that every Ukrainian soldier has total belief in what he is fighting for, whereas most Russian soldiers would take a defeat that spared them their own lives if they were offered that choice.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Ukrainians claim to have intercepted a Russian discussion which confirms that they blew the dam, at least partly by mistake. The intercept implies they wanted an explosion, possibly just in the turbine hall, to send a warning to Ukraine, but the pre laid mines in the main dam also went up. This matches the report I saw yesterday.

That's one way to silence all the people asking why the Russians would destroy their own water supply.

This issue could be pivotal in the course of the war. Crimea is the most important bit of occupied territory, and the fact that it is dependent on the Crimean Canal for its water supply was always a potential show-stopper for the Russians. The dam cannot be rebuilt without Ukrainian co-operation, even if Russia were to hold on to the southern bank. What is even more interesting is that an El Nino has just been declared, which is likely to result in record-breaking temperatures in the coming months. It is very hard to see what the Russians can do to mitigate this problem -- it would be an engineering nightmare even if it wasn't in occupied territory.

[PS_RalphW]

The counter offensive has been running some days now, and progress has been slow, with significant losses of hardware on the Ukrainian side. Russia has been heavily promoting these losses and Ukraine says little about its progress, so it is difficult to get a balanced picture. The nature of the war is leading Ukraine to use similar tactics to those used bt Russia in their failed offensive, probing attacks against a very broad front, taking out artillery whenever it is located, and disrupting logistics behind the lines. This is a war of attrition like the first world war.

Ukraine's only tactical advantage is in night vision based attacks, the minefields and defenses negate the advantages of modern fast tanks and apcs. Russia has control of most of the airspace over the battlefield.

That said, there are some signs of progress, reduced reports of Russian artilry attacks, and reports of Russia calling in reserves at the western end of the front, but Ukraine has only broken the first and weakest line of defense in small parts of the front. It is too soon to say how successful the offensive will be, or if the Russian lines will fold, as the German ones did eventually in WWII. A lot of soldiers are dieing right now.

[kenneal - lagger]

Crimea only needs the canal for agriculture. It can get enough domestic water from pipelines in the Kerch bridge. Russia, or Putin, only wants to hold Crimea for the prestige and naval base and probably doesn't give a damn about whether a few Ukrainians can make a living from farming the land or doing anything else for that matter.

The Ukrainians haven't committed many of the dozen or so brigades that have been training in the west recently so have plenty of reserves. Russia haven't claimed to have destroyed any British or French tanks yet so those, at least, are still held in reserve.

And the large losses aren't what they seem. The Russians have been Photoshopping images of destroyed Leopards and using different angles of the same destroyed vehicles to claim Ukrainian losses are greater than they actually are.

The Ukrainians are in no hurry, unlike many in the west who require instant gratification and have short attention spans. The Ukrainians are patient and will attack when they have found the right spot at the right time. Ukraine is still in a position to throw the Russians out completely.

Ideally Ukraine will want to throw the russians out just before the autumn rains so that a russian counterattack is not possible. Also it has been raining in Ukraine for the last week or so and more rain is forecast so a large scale mechanised assault is not on the cards yet.

[UndercoverElephant]

Ideally Ukraine will want to throw the russians out just before the autumn rains so that a russian counterattack is not possible.

There is no way that is going to happen. What would be the point in retaking territory that Russia can't hold on to?

I agree that everybody needs to be patient. Even if the Ukrainian attack was/is going very well, we wouldn't know about it.