Ukraine Watch...

[PS_RalphW]

Several reports of the counter offensive ramping up at several points along the front line, and also across the border into Belgorod again. This sounds like phase 2 with significant increase of force sizes being used in probing attacks, and the biggest in the centre of the southern front, which is probably where the main push will be.

Next few days will be very interesting, in the way of the Chinese curse.

[UndercoverElephant]

Several reports of the counter offensive ramping up at several points along the front line, and also across the border into Belgorod again. This sounds like phase 2 with significant increase of force sizes being used in probing attacks, and the biggest in the centre of the southern front, which is probably where the main push will be.

Next few days will be very interesting, in the way of the Chinese curse.

Yes. The Russians still don't know where the main push will be. They don't know which of these "probing attacks" are decoys. It took the Germans 2 days to realise that the Normandy landings were the main push -- they were convinced it was a decoy designed to get them to re-direct troops away from the main push, which they were convinced was coming much further east. Those lost days cost them everything.

[UndercoverElephant]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65813560

Ukraine war: 'Offensive actions' under way in east, Kyiv says

This is the distraction. So the real offensive is probably about to start in the south.

[PS_RalphW]

I dreamt that Putin died by suicide which lead to Western panic at the prospect of a Russian civil war. With Wagner and the Russian military coming to blows, this may not be so far from the truth.

[PS_RalphW]

The Kakhovka dam has been blown, presumably by Russia. This is a major escalation, and will flood large areas down stream, with major risk to life. It also will shut down a hydroelectric plant powering Ukraine, and risks disaster as the nuclear plant will lose access to cooling water.

It also reduces water supply to Crimea. It is scorched earth tactics and a sign of Russian desparation or more likely pure inhumanity of the leadership.

It will also be an ecological disaster for the area. But then all war is.

[PS_RalphW]

It appears that Russia had raised water levels behind the dam to record levels, presumably to cause maximum damage if or when the dam was destroyed. This clearly shows significant premeditation in this act of war.

There was already very little likelihood that Ukraine would try a serious attack in Kherson across the river, but that will now be impossible for weeks or months, so Russia will be able to free up defensive troops in the area for use further east.

Both sides will lose a lot of hardware to the floods.

[UndercoverElephant]

The Kakhovka dam has been blown, presumably by Russia. This is a major escalation, and will flood large areas down stream, with major risk to life. It also will shut down a hydroelectric plant powering Ukraine, and risks disaster as the nuclear plant will lose access to cooling water.

It also reduces water supply to Crimea. It is scorched earth tactics and a sign of Russian desparation or more likely pure inhumanity of the leadership.

It will also be an ecological disaster for the area. But then all war is.

That dam was the only remaining road crossing of the Dnipro south of Zaporizhzhia. So not just scorched Earth -- this is presumably to prevent Ukrainian forces from crossing the river there if the Russians are forced to withdraw.

[UndercoverElephant]

There is now footage of water gushing through the hole. I don't believe this is going to cause major flooding. It looks like they have only blown the top of the dam, and the river downstream from that point is very wide.

EDIT: The immediate area is flooded, but there's no sign of major flooding further downstream.

[UndercoverElephant]

Why aren't we getting more pictures of what is going on, either at the dam or downstream?

[adam2]

BBC news has some here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65819591 Other news media also.

[UndercoverElephant]

BBC news has some here https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-65819591 Other news media also.

Yeah, but those are the same clips and images that were available at 7am this morning. I want to know what the dam looks like now!

[UndercoverElephant]

Fascinating report on Newsnight. Suggesting that the Russians did not do this on purpose, because the flood waters are going to damage their own defensive line. Maybe it was the result of longer-term "mismanagement", or a bodged attempt to blow up just the sluices, or just the road over the top.

[Vortex2]

Wasn't the hydroelectric generator room the source of the explosion?

[PS_RalphW]

The exact details of the dam damage history is very murky.

Initially Ukraine blew up a small bridge over a separate sluice way. This was restored by Russia filling in the sluiceway with rocks. This is unlikely to have affected the main dam. They also stuck the roadway over the main dam at one point where it veered away from the dam around the turbine buildings, but only caused limited damage. When the Russians retreated from Kherson they blew up the road, and damaged the main dam at one end, causing some water to spill over the dam, in a way that in dams is prone to undermining the structure and weakening it. It was rumoured at the time that the Russians had laid mines so the entire dam could be blown later.

The level of water behind the dam first fell, then rose to record levels and over spilling the main dam. The Russians had control of the sluice gates, and either chose not to, or could not operate them. The extra water pressure and the overtopping probably weakened the main structure further.

On the night of the collapse, it was reported that there was an explosion in main turbine room , destroying it, and causing the dam waters to start flooding through. The videos show that the central turbine room has completely washed away, separate from the main dam collapse.

One theory I have read is that the Russians decided to blow the turbine room either to destroy it or in a desperate attempt to relieve the overtopping of the main dam. Either way, the explosion itself caused the main dam to also collapse, either because it was already so weakened, or because the demolition mines were also triggered, either accidentally or deliberately.

Either way, Russia is entirely responsible for the collapse, either through ineptitude, or more likely malice.

[clv101]

As an aside, it was interesting to hear Zelensky describe the dam bombing as an 'ecological bomb of mass destruction'. Ecologically speaking, removing the dam is probably net positive IMO. I'm reminded of Derrick Jensen (et al)'s Bright Green Lies book where he points out that in the past environmentalists used to be against dams for all the environmental damage they caused, but that flipped some 30 years ago and now dams are positive!